The NFL MVP race this season is weird. Usual suspects Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are still in the mix, but they sit just fourth and fifth in the odds, respectively. Guys like Justin Herbert, Jared Goff, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are all essentially out of the running (with odds at +2200 or worse). Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has the third-best odds at +500 and is surging toward the top of the field. But two players are tied right now for the most likely MVP winner. Those names? Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford. Imagine hearing that before this season began.
At +300, Stafford and Maye are technically tied, but come on, someone has to win the award. (Yes, there have been two MVP ties before, but the last one was in 2003.) So let’s break down the cases for both quarterbacks and see who really has the edge.
Matthew Stafford is proving age really is just a number
Remember before the season when the Rams were being super weird about Matthew Stafford's back injury. Everyone just assumed the worst because of that, and I seem to remember concern about whether Stafford would even play this year.
He has played, and the results have been very good.
The 37-year-old quarterback has led the Rams to a 7-2 start, and he leads the NFL with 25 passing touchdowns. He's also only been picked off twice — his 0.6 percent interception rate is the best mark of his career by a pretty wide margin. Stafford also leads the league in passing yards per game.
Sure, the addition of Davante Adams has been a big part of that, but Stafford deserves most of the credit here. It's also worth noting that Stafford isn't just dinking and dunking his way to success, as his aDOT ranks fourth in the league, and his 43 deep ball attempts rank third. Stafford is pushing the ball down the field despite his age, and it's paying off. The veteran is on track to have his best season yet.
Drake Maye’s leap from project to MVP contender has shocked the NFL
Drake Maye's ascension to MVP contender is both more and less surprising than Stafford's. More, because Maye had to improve his play more than Stafford did to get there, and less, because the preseason Stafford injury concerns mixed with the preseason Maye hype make this feel like it's not too far outside the range of potential outcomes.
Maye has the Patriots at 8-2 on the season, a big improvement from the 3-9 record in his 12 starts last year. He's completed 71.7 percent of his pass attempts for 2,555 yards and 19 touchdowns while throwing five interceptions. Maye has also rushed for two scores.
Like Stafford, the addition of a big-name wide receiver has helped Maye this season, but the Stefon Diggs addition hasn't been as consequential as the Adams addition. Maye is doing this with less help than Stafford.
Maye isn't pushing the ball deep quite as much as Stafford either, ranking 11th in both aDOT and deep ball attempts. Still, 11th is not, like, 30th or something, so let's not discount Maye for not slinging it quite as much. He still has a good arm and is making plays with that arm.
Accuracy has been the name of the game for Maye. Per PlayerProfiler, he ranks first in the NFL in true completion percentage, second in deep ball completion percentage and first in pressured completion percentage. His ability to hit his receivers while under attack is a huge plus for his game, and for his MVP case.
Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye: Who really has the stronger MVP case?
There are some issues for Maye that stand out, especially the fact that he's taking sacks at a fairly high rate. Only Cam Ward has been sacked more times overall than Maye, whose 10.9 percent sack rate is the fourth-highest in the league.
Stafford, meanwhile, has the third-lowest sack rate at 4.32 percent. Offensive line play factors into that heavily, but it does suggest that Maye is taking a little too long to make decisions and get the ball out.
What Maye has done this season has been very impressive, but Stafford's got better numbers and a better narrative around him, which includes the fact that some voters probably are going to weigh an important factor into things: Stafford might never be in this position again.
Is that fair to factor in? Well, I don't know! I think discounting Maye using the logic of "he'll have more chances to win MVP" ignores that he might not actually be this close to the award ever again. But stories matter too, and Stafford going from "old guy who had a lingering back injury" to "maybe the best quarterback in the league right now" is a helluva story. It's why I lean his direction at the moment in the MVP race. So let's make it official:
NFL MVP winner prediction between Stafford and Maye: Matthew Stafford