For the last half decade, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the NFC South. After having not made the playoffs from 2008 to 2019, Tampa Bay has made it each of the last five seasons. The one year they did not win the division resulted in them winning a Super Bowl with Tom Brady as their starting quarterback. All the while, rival teams like Atlanta, Carolina and New Orleans have all stumbled a bit.
When it comes to the Atlanta Falcons, they have been the epitome of underachievement. It has been a painfully long seven years since they last made it into the postseason. 2017 was a long time ago. The Carolina Panthers know this all too well, as they have not been in the NFC playoffs since that same campaign either. Only the flightless New York Jets have had a longer playoff drought than them.
And for the New Orleans Saints, this team that used to dominate the division with Drew Brees at quarterback and Sean Payton at head coach is a complete shell of itself. One bad financial move after another has this team closer to getting the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft than it does to ever getting back to a Super Bowl. This could be an incredibly rough year for the Saints, to be honest.
With the NFL preseason winding down, here is how the NFC South looks entering the regular season.
4. New Orleans Saints
I was not kidding when I said the New Orleans Saints could end up with the worst record in football. Although Mickey Loomis is a longtime general manager, the front-office mess he has created will not make things any easier for a first-time head coach in Kellen Moore. Together, he and first-time NFL offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier must find the fight quarterback to lead them for this season.
While they reached on Tyler Shough out of Louisville in the second round, their best option might be second-year pro Spencer Rattler. Let's be real. Even if Rattler or Shough look far better than third-year pro Jake Haener, I am struggling to see the offense scoring enough points to win more than seven games. For that reason, this is the only NFC South team that is not winning the division this fall.
Unless it is a bizarre year in the NFC, I have a hard time seeing the Saints even being a playoff team.
3. Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers are a team of great intrigue for me. I view them similarly to what the Arizona Cardinals were a year ago. I do not think the Panthers will end up being a playoff team, but they could certainly be in the mix for a postseason berth heading into the final week or two of the season. My biggest reason for this is their up-and-coming star head coach Dave Canales. He could be special.
As far as why I have the Panthers third, it has more to do with the roster being a year away from being a year away. I trust new-ish general manager Dan Morgan to get more right than wrong in the end. The good news for the Panthers is owner David Tepper seems to have stopped his perpetually meddling ways. The bad news is we might be quickly approaching Bryce Young's ceiling as a star quarterback.
Carolina could win the division, may end up being a wild card team, but will probably miss the playoffs.
2. Atlanta Falcons
We have arrived at my Atlanta Falcons. Although they swept the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, they finished the season at 8-9. That was their best mark since they last made the playoffs in 2017. In an attempt to remove my bias from the equation, Atlanta is good enough to win the NFC South, maybe a playoff game or two if the offense takes a big step up and the defense improves drastically.
This is a team that can hang with just about anyone. It can also lose to pretty much every team in the league. The Dirty Birds are a high-variance team, but one that seems to be too talented at key positions to be held down for all that much longer. If any team is going to catch the Buccaneers in the division, the smart money would be on the Falcons. Then again, betting on Atlanta is never enjoyable.
If Michael Penix Jr. plays at a Pro Bowl-level this fall, then Atlanta should make the playoffs this year.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Until proven otherwise, the NFC South is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' division to lose. They have had a stranglehold on it for the better part of five years now. This is because they have a top-five general manager in football in Jason Licht. Their receiving corps is outstanding. Whether it has been Tom Brady or Baker Mayfield, the Buccaneers have continually gotten Pro Bowl-level play at quarterback.
If there are any cracks in the foundation in which division rivals like Atlanta and Carolina could exploit, I would say that offensive coordinator attrition might eventually get the best of this franchise. The offensive line is still strong, but the Buccaneers' pass-rush has seen better days. This is a team that should make the playoffs one way or another, but Tampa Bay is not a threat to play for a Super Bowl.
If this team wins around 10 games again, they will be back in the postseason in some shape or form.