Some people don’t like the NFL because of the money. They say stuff like "you can tell they’re only playing because they’re getting paid". If I had to guess, those people exclusively watch Week 18s.
This year’s regular-season finale has just three games that actually matter, and a few other games that could maybe matter. Every other game is pomp and circumstance, playing out the string because of contractual obligations. Those are the games that’ll make you think the players are just there for a paycheck … and that’s because they are.
But hey: That paycheck could be bigger, and that’s where bad games start to get interesting.
All of the lines I’m using are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12 PM on January 2, 2026.
Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders (at Philadelphia Eagles)
Needs 8 touchdowns for $250,000
Needs 800 receiving yards for $450,000
Needs 80 catches for $650,000
Has 6 touchdowns
Has 707 receiving yards
Has 70 catches
Deebo Samuel has had games with multiple touchdowns. Deebo Samuel has had games with at least 93 receiving yards. Deebo Samuel has had games with 10 catches. But Deebo Samuel has never had a game with all three of the above.
He’s going to need a career day if he wants to get his $1.3 million. Luckily for him, the Eagles are resting their starters in this game. That means instead of Cooper DeJean, Quinyon Mitchell, Zach Baun and Jihaad Campbell, he’s going to get Michael Carter, Kelee Ringo, Smael Mondon and Jeremiah Trotter Jr. That’s a significant downgrade in the guys who are going to cover and tackle him when he gets in space.
The obvious problem is that Vic Fangio is still the Eagles defensive coordinator, and he treats every point scored against him as a personal affront to his manhood and every yard gained as an insult to his family. If there’s a DC who can turn a defense made of backups into a top-15 unit, it’s Fangio.
Regardless, Samuel is +310 to score a touchdown. There are no receiving props for this game.
Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (at Jacksonville Jaguars)
Needs 1,100 rushing yards for $250,000
Needs 7 rushing touchdowns for $200,000
Has 1,034 rushing yards
Has 5 rushing touchdowns
The good news for Tony Pollard is that he only needs 66 rushing yards to get $250,000. The better news is that he’s gone over that mark six times this season. The best news is that he’s gone over 66 rushing yards in each of the past four games (161, 104, 102 and 85).
The bad news for him is that he’s playing the Jaguars, who are playing for the AFC South title and still have a chance to get the No. 1 seed in the conference. That means they’re going to be playing their starters, and that defense is very good: They’ve only allowed two running backs to get over 66 rushing yards this year, and those running backs were Week 14 Jonathon Taylor and Week 17 Jonathon Taylor. Tony Pollard, to say the least, is no Jonathon Taylor.
If you’re into it, Pollard to have 60+ rushing yards is -165, and 70+ rushing yards is +100. Personally, it feels like those numbers aren’t big enough, but don’t let me tell you what to do with your money.
Nick Folk, New York Jets (at Buffalo Bills)
Needs 30 field goals for $500,000
Has 28 field goals
There’s nothing that the Jets can do right; they’re a bad football team from front to back. However: They’re playing a Bills team that absolutely doesn’t control their own destiny, would benefit from rest and could probably beat New York with their backups anyway.
If the Bills’ backups do come in, the Jets should be able to move the ball into field-goal range at least. And at that point, Folk is going to be hoping that his offense does exactly what it’s done all season: flounder on third downs.
Folk has kicked multiple field goals in 11 of the 16 games so far this season. It seems like this one should be a gimme.
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills (vs. New York Jets)
Needs 40 receptions for $100,000
Needs 400 receiving yards for $100,000
Needs 4 touchdowns for $100,000
Has 34 receptions
Has 393 receiving yards
Has 3 touchdowns
This all goes into how much the Bills’ starters are going to play. Josh Allen is probably going to start because he’s got a streak of 139 consecutive starts to keep alive, and if he’s on the field, then he’s going to have the starting offense with him.
You have to imagine that the first play of the game is going to be something that gets Dawson Knox the ball in space. At that point, you let the guy get six yards, get his $100,000 and get off the field. Then maybe, if the Bills have some goal-line situation, you put Knox back in the game and get him a target in the end zone for another $100,000.
As for the six receptions? That’s tough. He’s done that just one time this entire season, and that was in the Week 14 game against a very giving Bengals defense. But this is the Bills’ last regular-season game at Highmark Stadium, and it might be their last in that stadium ever. Maybe they give the non-Allen starters a little bit more run as fan service?
On top of that, Dalton Kincaid is dealing with an injury, and Buffalo loves using tight ends. Maybe Knox gets more targets than normal. It’s a funky situation.
Adam Trautman, Denver Broncos (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
Needs 25 receptions for $125,000
Has 20 receptions
With the Chargers announcing that they’re going to rest their starters, the Broncos have all but clinched the top seed in the AFC.
The assumption here is that Denver is going to stomp on the Chargers’ backups. If that’s the case, they’ll pull their starters. As far as tight ends go, that means pulling Evan Engram, which would leave Trautman, Marcedes Lewis and Nate Adkins. Lewis is 41 years old, so you probably don’t want him playing if he doesn’t have to. So now we’re just looking at Trautman and Adkins.
It seems like this is all set up pretty well for Trautman to get a nice little payday, and if he tells Bo Nix or Jarrett Stidham that he’ll take them out to dinner if he gets a few more balls thrown his way, then it should be a sure thing.