NFL Week 18 could very well get crazy. There's no other way to say that as we look at both the NFL Playoff picture and the potential effects on the NFL Draft order. It's the final week of the regular season, yet the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars are all still alive for the No. 1 seed in the AFC — but the Jags aren't even locked into winning their division. Meanwhile, the NFC's No. 1 seed will likely be decided in a matchup between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. And let's not forget pseudo play-in games with Panthers-Buccaneers and Ravens-Steelers. It's even more for us to weigh as we make our NFL picks for the regular-season finale.
The question, however, is whether or not any of the potential postseason race chaos will come into play. Yes, there are chances of these things happening, but not much of it is likely. The Broncos need to lose in order to relinquish the No. 1 seed, and they're playing a Chargers team resting its starters. The Jaguars would need to lose to the reeling Titans to not take the AFC South crown. And the list goes on. But let's see just how much chaos I'm predicting as we dive into these NFL Week 18 picks for every game, both straight-up and against the spread.
NFL Week 18 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 18 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Panthers at Buccaneers (Sat.) | Panthers | Panthers +3 |
Seahawks at 49ers (Sat.) | Seahawks | Seahawks -1.5 |
Saints at Falcons | Falcons | Falcons -3 |
Browns at Bengals | Bengals | Browns +7.5 |
Cowboys at Giants | Cowboys | Cowboys -3.5 |
Packers at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings -7.5 |
Colts at Texans | Texans | Texans -10.5 |
Titans at Jaguars | Jaguars | Jaguars -12.5 |
Chiefs at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders +5.5 |
Lions at Bears | Bears | Bears -3 |
Chargers at Broncos | Broncos | Chargers +11.5 |
Dolphins at Patriots | Patriots | Patriots -10.5 |
Commanders at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles -3.5 |
Cardinals at Rams | Rams | Rams -7.5 |
Jets at Bills | Bills | Bills -7.5 |
Ravens at Steelers (SNF) | Ravens | Ravens -3.5 |
2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 151-105 (Last Week: 10-6 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 118-135-3 (Last Week: 8-7-1 | 2024 record 147-118-1)
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Unfortunately, I don't foresee a ton of drama in Week 18, despite the possibility being there. When you look at the lines themselves, you see that the games that could really cause chaos are expected to be quite one-sided — and for good reason. Are the Patriots and Broncos really going to lose as double-digit favorites?
Having said that, the most interesting matchups might be in regard to the draft order. If the Raiders can beat the downtrodden Chiefs and the Giants lose to the Cowboys, New York could reclaim the No. 1 overall pick. And with Kansas City down to its third-string QB and injuries across the board, that's not out of the question.
None of this means there won't be excitement for NFL Week 18, but it just might not come in the way of playoff madness.
Toughest NFL Week 18 prediction to make
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
It's going to be high-stakes on Sunday Night Football to officially conclude the regular season with the rival Ravens and Steelers doing battle in Pittsburgh for the final playoff spot in the AFC by way of winning the AFC North. Of course, it was less than a month ago that the Steelers won this matchup in Baltimore. However, it also feels like a lot has changed since then, particularly when it comes to the Ravens, but also not removing Pittsburgh from that equation either.
Lamar Jackson should be back for this game with the playoff spot on the line, but the rest of the offense seems to have found better footing. More importantly, the defense is also playing a bit better than it was, even if it's not the strength of the Ravens as it was with this franchise's teams of old. Then, on the Steelers' side, Aaron Rodgers and this offense looked all but lost without DK Metcalf in the mix, and the receiver will be out for this game as well. I also am of the belief that this defense just simply isn't what it once was either.
When you put this all into the blender, I think the Ravens are the better football team right now. I won't be saying that with my chest because it's a tight battle of mediocrity to decide this division, but I'm officially taking Baltimore as my pick.
Easiest NFL Week 18 pick on the board
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
Yes, the Rams were an abject disaster against the Falcons last week in a loss that Sean McVay probably hasn't slept a wink because of since. At the same time, that might be about as bad as Los Angeles could've possibly looked, and it's hard to see them doing that again against anyone. But that's amplified even more when you're talking about a home game against a Cardinals team that the Rams are not only familiar with, but that has looked dead in the water for over a month now.
The Cardinals have made a habit out of getting blown out early, then scoring in garbage time to help make the final score at least look slightly less embarrassing. However, with this spread set at just 7.5 points, I don't see how the Rams don't replicate that formula. Things can always get weird in Week 18, of course, with players resting and otherwise. But sometimes a mismatch is just a mismatch, and this game has all the trappings of one.
The pick that probably has you scratching your head
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5)
The Raiders are bad. That's not a fact that escapes me, considering we've gotten empirical evidence supporting such an argument through the first 17 games of the season. And let's also be clear that I don't think having Kenny Pickett starting under center is going to help Vegas in this matchup with the Chiefs. What will help, however, is the state of Kansas City coming into this rivalry matchup out of the AFC West.
Chris Oladokun leading the offense has been wholly uninspiring for Kansas City. Now, we also add in that this is a game in which the Chiefs truly have nothing to play for outside of draft positioning — and in that regard, they would obviously benefit from losing and holding onto a Top 10 pick. Pete Carroll, on the other hand, may well be coaching for his job (if there's anything he can do to save it at this point). Ultimately, I landed on this situation and matchup giving us one of the most befuddling results of Week 18.