Millions of people tune in to watch the NFL each week because it's just plain fun — an unscripted (we swear!), hyper-violent chess match that features some of the best athletes in the world performing incredible feats. Pulling the strings and moving the pieces are 32 head coaches, each of whom works under the stress of knowing that failure is unacceptable.
Football is a zero-sum game, which means that for every winner, there also has to be a loser. I guess if you're the Cowboys or Packers, there could also be a tie, but you get the point. Some teams do well, other teams don't, and each year we see the coaching carousel spin round and round as teams try to change their fortunes. Former Falcons head coach Jerry Glanville once said that NFL stands for "Not For Long," and he's been proven right over the years. Most head coaches don't even make it three or fours years, some even less.
Most coach firings take place on Black Monday, the first day after the regular season ends. Many teams aren't that patient, though, and so we usually see some coaches get their walking papers while the season is still going on.
One good stretch can be enough to get a coach off the hot seat. Just look at Colts head coach Shane Steichen, who was thought to be one of the coaches most in danger of losing his job at the start of the year, but who is now the odds-on favorite to win Coach of the Year. On the flip side, one bad stretch can get a coach run out of town.
Today we're looking at the three coaches who are in the most trouble right now. Could a three-game winning streak change their fortunes? Absolutely, but at this moment in time, it's not looking good.
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins
Mike McDaniel has to be at the top of any potential firing list. The Dolphins' vibes weren't great entering the season, and they haven't gotten much better as the team has limped to a 1-4 start. McDaniel's eccentric personality isn't doing him any favors, either. It's cool to be quirky when your team is winning, but when the worm turns, that gets old fast.
The Dolphins opened the season by getting blown out by the Colts. This past week, they blew a 17-0 halftime lead to the Panthers. The one team they've beaten is the Jets, the only winless squad in the NFL. That game was at home, in primetime, and Miami still needed to recover a late onside kick to escape with a win.
Tyreek Hill is out for the year, and the running game has been almost nonexistent. Tua Tagovailoa's development has stalled as he's thrown back-breaking interceptions at the most inopportune times. There's not much reason for optimism.
The Dolphins have a manageable upcoming schedule, but that could actually be a curse if they can't take care of business. They get a reeling and injury-riddled Chargers team at home on Sunday, then they travel to the Browns and Falcons after that. If McDaniel is still hanging on by then, a Thursday night home game against the wildly disappointing Ravens could be his last stand.
Odds of McDaniel being the first coach fired: 40 percent
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
Zac Taylor led the Bengals to within one score of a Super Bowl title in 2022, but things are looking worse for him by the day in Cincinnati. The Bengals haven't been remotely competitive since Joe Burrow went down, losing their last three games by a combined 76 points. Taylor is supposed to be an offensive guru, but his team has scored a single field goal in each of its last three first halves. Even with Burrow, the Bengals would have lost to the Browns in Week 1 if not for Cleveland's wretched special teams.
Taylor is the one who will inevitably take the fall if the Bengals continue their downward spiral, but he doesn't deserve the lion's share of the blame. That falls on ownership and the front office, which saddled him with a top-heavy roster that all but ignored the offensive line and the defense. I'm not sure what he's supposed to do, especially when Burrow unsurprisingly got hurt behind that porous offensive line. There always has to be a fall guy, though, and it's almost always the head coach.
Taylor's last hope is the ancient Joe Flacco, whom the team just acquired today in a trade with the in-state division rival Browns. Cleveland gave Dillon Gabriel the starting job last week, which made Flacco expendable, so much so that the Bengals basically just swapped a fifth-round pick for a sixth-rounder to get him.
Flacco is still competent, even at age 40, but I shudder to think what's going to happen to him behind this line. If and when he inevitably struggles or gets hurt, there'll be nowhere left to turn. Burrow isn't due back until at least December. By that point, it will be too late to save Taylor.
Odds of Taylor being the first coach fired: 25 percent
Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans
It might seem strange to have a coach who just got a big win on the list, but if you watched anything that happened in the fourth quarter of that Titans-Cardinals game, you'd know that the Titans were the beneficiaries of one of the flukiest string of circumstances to ever occur in an NFL game.
Emari Demercado broke a long run with under 13 minutes left that would have put Arizona up by 21, but inexplicably continued the epidemic of players dropping the ball before crossing the goal line. Later, Cam Ward got picked off in the red zone with under five minutes left and the Titans trailing by nine. That should have ended it, but somehow the Cardinals fumbled the return and then Benny Hill'd it into the end zone, where Tyler Lockett recovered it for a touchdown.
Callahan should be happy his team got the win, but he lost the previous 10 games before that. Just because the Cardinals shot themselves repeatedly in the foot doesn't make you a marksman.
The Titans simply haven't been competitive this year, or at all under Callahan since he took over for Mike Vrabel. They were gifted four turnovers by the Broncos in Week 1 and still managed to lose by nine. They then lost by multiple scores each to the Rams and Colts before being shut out by the previously winless Texans.
All the positivity that came out of this unlikely win will come crashing down if the Titans can't follow it up by beating the hapless Raiders this week. After that, five of their next six games are against teams with winning records, and the other one is against the Texans, who just killed them. Tennessee won't be favored in a game until they host the Saints in Week 17, and that's not even a guarantee.
It's possible that Callahan could survive another 3-14 kind of record if Ward shows steady development. It's possible that Titans ownership doesn't want to go through the coaching cycle again when they just did it two years ago. If Tennessee can't find a way to win games or at least stay competitive without relying on a stupefying amount of luck, none of that may matter.
Odds of Callahan being the first coach fired: 20 percent
Beyond these three, Brian Daboll of the Giants could use a few more wins to stay above water, so I'd put him at 10 percent. Most of the other bad teams have first-year coaches, like the Jets, Raiders and Saints, so they're not going anywhere. Could there be a shocking John Harbaugh or Kevin Stefanski firing to shake up the AFC North? It doesn't seem likely.