There's a saying that it's better to be lucky than good. In many ways, it's true. You hear it often on the golf course when a ball takes a fortunate bounce into the fairway, or at the poker table when an inferior player hits a river miracle to drag a huge pot.
Through seven weeks, the NFL standings have begun to take shape. We have a good idea of who the worst teams are (sorry, Jets and Titans fans), but it's still too early to fully trust anybody to be there in late January. Six or seven games is still a small sample size, and we've seen some wacky plays that have completely changed the end results of games. Not every winning record is created equally, so while at the end of the day teams will take wins any way they can get them, that doesn't mean we have to believe in their ability to keep racking them up.
That's the downside. It feels great in the short term for Lady Luck to smile upon you, but she rarely does it in perpetuity. Eventually, teams have to help themselves. Today we're looking at five teams who are fortunate to be where they are today, giving us reason to believe that their good start could be a mirage. Here are five teams on Fraud Watch.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have played seven games, and by my estimation, they've put together two good halves exactly once, in their easy 28-3 win over the floundering Bengals in Week 4. Other than that, they've played down to lesser competition, such as in their four-turnover performance at home against the lowly Titans in Week 1 and in their unwatchable 13-11 win over the Jets in London in Week 6. They've also been comatose through the first three quarters twice, somehow waking up in the fourth to steal games from the Eagles and Giants.
The Broncos have lost two of the three games they've played against good teams, and though their fans will point to a super weak leverage call that cost them the game against the Colts, the fact remains that this team isn't playing impressive football on a consistent basis. Worse yet, the Chiefs are back from the dead and looking as dangerous as they have in well over a year, putting the pressure on in the AFC West.
This week's opponent provides the perfect litmus test for Bo Nix and company. They'll play the Cowboys at home, a place where they're 4-0. Dallas hasn't won two games in a row yet this season, and they're fresh off beating the Commanders, so according to their pattern, they're due for another loss. They also have a terrific offense but an awful defense. Will the vaunted Broncos D get lit up for the second week in a row? Will the offense show any sign of life in the first three quarters against a team that can't stop anybody?
Denver can't count on scoring 33 points in the fourth quarter again, and there won't be any teams led by Cam Ward or Justin Fields for them to play in the postseason. If they're a real contender, they need to start acting like it.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I hesitated to put the Bucs on this list, because Baker Mayfield has been downright heroic in leading this team to a 5-2 record without his star running back or top three receivers for most of the season. But In the end I had to do it, because for as good as Baker is, I don't think it's fair to expect him to pull a rabbit out of his hat all year long.
The Bucs weren't able to line up in victory formation until their 30-19 Week 6 win over the Niners, and that was their fifth W of the season. That's because every victory before that was a heart attack special, with Baker leading them down the field in the closing moments to escape like an explosives expert cutting the correct wire with one second left on the bomb.
This isn't a sustainable method of winning, and indeed we saw the pixie dust run out in Monday night's loss to the Lions. There's a reason that top-end receivers make big money, and the devastating new injury to Mike Evans that will keep him out most of the year is going to be felt, even though rookie Emeka Egbuka has been phenomenal.
Baker's heroics have taken all the heat off Todd Bowles' surprisingly suspect defense and special teams. The Bucs let the Jets score 27 on them in Week 3, which is like giving up 50 to anyone else. They got carved up for most of the Seahawks game by Sam Darnold in Week 5's 38-35 shootout, and only won because Baker had one extra bullet in the chamber.
The Bucs are lucky that they're in the NFC South. The Saints are already well out of the race, the Falcons are having massive scoring problems despite having Bijan Robinson in the backfield and, while the Panthers have won three in a row, I'm not sure many people see them challenging for the division crown.
The Bucs are 5-2 but have a measly +1 point differential. They need a get-right game against the Saints this week, because the Patriots, Bills and Rams are all looming after that.
Buffalo Bills
Speaking of the Bills, this year's Hard Knocks participant was the Super Bowl favorite through the first month of the season, but it's looking more and more since then like the emperor has no clothes. The first crack in their armor was when Drake Maye outdueled Josh Allen in Buffalo on Monday Night Football, then another appeared one week later when they looked completely disjointed in a road loss to the Falcons.
The Bills are coming off of a bye, and with Allen under center it's easy to assume that they'll be fine. That kind of careless thinking is what gets you suplexed through a picnic table in the Highmark Stadium parking lot, though. A closer look at everything they've done this year reveals a team that isn't as good as we all thought.
Week 1's come-from-behind victory over the Ravens was seen as a thrilling statement win over a fellow Super Bowl contender, but the Ravens have had their wings clipped in dropping to 1-5 to take the luster off of that. The Bills then beat the Jets with ease the following week, to which we say, "big whoop."
But it's the two games after that one that really worry me. The Dolphins and Saints both came to Buffalo, and though neither pulled the upset, the Dolphins tied it in the fourth and the Saints cut the lead to two with under nine minutes to go.
The Bills deserve credit for closing those games strong, but if they really were Super Bowl contenders, they'd have put the hammer down long before that. With two straight losses, the Patriots rolling and a visit to the unblemished-at-home Panthers and then a home showdown with the Chiefs in the next two weeks, this house of cards may come tumbling down if they don't add some more pieces at the trade deadline.
Philadelphia Eagles
Can we put the defending Super Bowl champs on Fraud Watch? You bet your cheesesteak we can. This is a new year, and the NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" kind of league.
The Eagles started 4-0 and have the most impressive trio of wins in the league. They beat the Chiefs, Rams and Bucs in consecutive weeks, and even better, two of those wins came on the road. So what's the problem?
Anybody that has watched Philly play could tell you that something hasn't been clicking with this team, and it's finally begun to manifest itself in the results. They blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead at home in Week 5's loss to the Broncos, and they got lit up on Thursday night a week later by Jaxson Dart and the Giants. Even Sunday's six-point win over the Vikings wasn't overly impressive, as they nearly found a way to lose despite their former QB, Carson Wentz, making a few of the most inanely boneheaded plays you'll ever see.
After last year's historic season, Saquon Barkley's stock is down as he's yet to run for 100 yards in a game. The passing game has been in even worse shape, until Jalen Hurts finally made some big-time throws to AJ Brown and Devonta Smith against the Vikings. The offensive line hasn't been nearly as good, and the defense is hovering around league average.
The Eagles were 2-2 to start last season, then they won 16 of 17 on their way to a Super Bowl title. They get an opportunity for revenge against the Giants this week, then comes a bye to fix what's under the hood. It would be foolish to write them off, but they need to start figuring things out.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers just can't shake the fraud label, and it's not only because of Aaron Rodgers' close ties to RFK Jr. The defense doesn't appear nearly as dominant as it once was, and though the schedule has been soft, they still haven't looked like a top team, even in victory.
The Steelers have wins over Justin Fields, Drake Maye, Carson Wentz and Dillon Gabriel. That win over Maye is the only one they'd want to hang on the refrigerator, but even that was a fluky one, as they were outgained by 160 yards and really only escaped because the Patriots turned it over five times.
Mike Tomlin knows his team isn't as good as its record, otherwise he wouldn't have come out so hard against the Browns trading Joe Flacco to the Bengals. Flacco is a million years old and had a couple of days to learn the offense, yet he still threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns as he proved that Tomlin's fears were well-founded in a 33-31 Cincy win last Thursday.
According to FanDuel, the Steelers are only +135 to win the division, while the 1-5 Ravens are +150. That's one of the most disrespectful lines I've ever seen, but it's warranted because nobody believes in Rodgers to last the whole season — or in this team to keep pulling out wins. They're about to get exposed by their upcoming schedule, first as they welcome the Packers to town for a Sunday Night Football clash (and Rodgers revenge spot) and then as they host the NFL-best Colts the following week.