If there's one thing NFL fans love, it's drawing sweeping conclusions based off of just one game. Mind you, those conclusions could be completely different based on next week's result, but for now, we're sticking to our guns, damn it — and we won't be quiet about it, either.
I'm a lifelong NFL fan, so I have well over three decades of experience when it comes to overreacting to the latest results. Have I learned my lesson in all these years? Let's not be silly. I'm as guilty as anyone of taking three hours of football and running with it like Jahmyr Gibbs in the open field, and I have no plans to stop anytime soon.
Now that another double dose of Monday Night Football is in the books and we've had a bit of time to digest Sunday's results, it's the perfect time to look ahead. Not just to next week's games, though there will certainly be time for that, but to the bigger picture. We're all searching for answers, and if these turn out to be wrong, we'll get some new ones soon enough. Here are eight overreactions, one for each division, to this week's games that, for now at least, might just turn out to be true.
The Patriots might be real contenders in the AFC East and beyond
When the Patriots began the season 1-2, we all nodded along and agreed that it would take Mike Vrabel some time to turn this thing around. What we didn't know was that he would only need a few days to do it.
The Pats have rolled off four straight wins now, and they've looked wicked impressive in doing it. They crushed the suddenly competent Panthers by 29, beat the Bills in Buffalo in a wildly impressive Sunday night performance, then overcame the refs to get a road win against the Saints. Good teams are supposed to take care of business against bad ones, and that's exactly what New England did in walking all over the Titans 31-13 this weekend.
There's a path for the Patriots to win the AFC East and finish with one of the best records in the conference, because they have a creampuff-laden schedule that I believe concludes with games against UMass and Holy Cross. A good record does not a contender make, however: When I say they might be real contenders, I mean the rest of the AFC had better look out once the playoffs begin. Drake Maye has surged to the head of the 2024 quarterback draft class, the defense has allowed less than 17 points per game since Christian Gonzalez returned in Week 4 and Vrabel flat-out knows how to coach. The Patriots aren't a few years away. They're here to make some noise right now.
The NFC West will send three teams to the playoffs
The NFC West and NFC North are in a battle to claim the title of the best division in football. Every North team is .500 or better, while the Cardinals are dragging the West down with their 2-5 record. I still think the West is stronger overall, though, because three of their teams look capable of getting to the conference championship game. I'm not sure you could say that right now about the Vikings, and though the Bears have been hot in winning four straight, they're still a work in progress.
The Niners, Rams and Seahawks are all really good teams, and I believe they'll all be in the NFC's seven-team playoff field when the dust settles. The Niners have kept on trucking through a Jobian level of misfortune, getting the job done without Brock Purdy, Fred Warner and a rotating injured cast of their best skill position players not named Christian McCaffrey.
The Rams beat the hell out of the Jaguars in their London home away from home, and they did it without Puka Nacua. Matthew Stafford and Davante Adams have forged an immediate connection, and the defense allowed fewer than 10 points for the third time already this season.
The Seahawks played a Texans team that had their entire bye week to game plan, and they still whooped them in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. The defensive line continues to wreak havoc on opposing offenses, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is making a credible claim to be the best receiver in the league.
The Niners have already racked up three division wins, but the Rams and Seahawks have the second- and third-best point differential in the conference behind the Lions. All three of these teams have a legit shot to make a deep run.
An under-.500 team might win the AFC North
Let's flip the script from a division that looks like the best in football to one that appears to be completely unserious. The AFC North is a mess right now: The Ravens were one of the top Super Bowl favorites in the preseason, but they spent their bye week nursing their wounds and a putrid 1-5 record; the Steelers seemed to be the only team we could trust, then they laid an egg on Thursday night to a Bengals team that had lost their last four games by a combined 85 points. New arrival Joe Flacco lit up the Steelers secondary, but that feels more like an indictment of Pittsburgh than a sign that Cincy will be able to hang tough until Joe Burrow gets back.
The one actually impressive AFC North team from this week was the Browns, who ran all over the hapless Dolphins behind a stellar game from rookie back Quinshon Judkins. Yes, it's only the Dolphins, but 25-point wins aren't something Browns fans are used to seeing. That defense is good enough to give them a shot most weeks.
So who actually wants to win this division? I don't trust the Steelers even a little bit, especially with them going against the Packers this week in the Aaron Rodgers Bowl. They're 4-2 and in clear control, but I don't see them getting to nine wins, let alone double digits. That means that every other team is still very much alive, even the 2-5 Browns and 1-5 Ravens. Baltimore still plays Pittsburgh and Cincinnati twice each. A 7-4 finish would get them to 8-9, and crazy as it sounds, that might be enough if they can control the tiebreakers.
The Cowboys have to be taken seriously in the NFC East
Losing to the Panthers, as the Cowboys did last week, is not the first thing I'd do if I wanted people to take my team seriously. Pounding a divisional opponent (and last year's NFC runner-up) by 22 is, though, which is why Dallas should be on everyone's radar now.
The Cowboys have an easy pros and cons list. On the pro side, Dak Prescott has been outstanding, even without Ceedee Lamb, and the star receiver came back this week and looked no worse for wear after recovering from his ankle sprain. Javonte Williams has given Dallas a running game again after not having much of one the last few years. Other than a Week 3 loss to the Bears in which they lost Lamb mid-game and failed to adjust on the fly, the offense has been pretty unstoppable, with 208 points in their other six games.
Then there's the defense, which hasn't exactly made anyone think of the days when DeMarcus Ware was terrorizing quarterbacks. It's difficult to draw any conclusions about the D after Sunday's win over the Commanders, since Jayden Daniels really only played one half before injuring his hamstring. But to their credit, this unit did hold Washington to one score in the second half.
Dallas' offense is so dynamic that they can never be counted out. The Commanders are free-falling with two straight losses and the potential long-term absence of Daniels, the Eagles haven't inspired much confidence in their repeat chances despite mostly finding ways to win and the Giants ... well, they keep doing Giants things.
The Cowboys have the horses to stay in the playoff race for the long haul, and if they can even figure out their defense just a little bit, they could really be dangerous.
The AFC South race is already over
At the risk of pulling an Emari Demercado-like premature celebration, I'm here to say that the AFC South race is unofficially over. The Colts are the real deal, and they proved it once again by thumping the Chargers on the road this week. Daniel Jones looks like a shoo-in for Comeback Player of the Year (if not MVP), while Jonathan Taylor found the end zone three times for the third time already this season.
I hesitate to even name the teams chasing the Colts, because they seem to have picked up their ball and headed home instead. The Jaguars turned heads with gutty wins over the 49ers and Chiefs, but since then they've lost at home to a Seahawks team fresh off a 3,000-mile flight and then no-showed so badly against the Rams in London that I'm not sure they even got their passports stamped.
Don't get me started on the Texans, who are completely incapable of getting a short-yardage first down behind their anemic offensive line. We're all waiting on Rookie of the Year CJ Stroud to make an appearance, but I don't blame him for playing so poorly in year three given who's protecting him. The Seahawks manhandled Houston in every way, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba even made a very good Houston secondary look completely pedestrian.
Do we have to talk about the Titans? Ugh, I guess we can. Let's see, they fired their coach after last week's loss to the sorry Raiders, and the only reason they're not winless is that the football gods took pity on them against the Cardinals and blessed them with two one-in-a-million breaks. Cam Ward has been running for his life, and he's picked up a disturbing habit of letting the ball simply fly out of his hand backwards.
The Colts have the best point differential in the league, and they'll probably lock this division up by winning just two of their final 10 games.
The Panthers will have something to say about the NFC South race
After the MVP-like start to Baker Mayfield's season, it didn't look like we'd need to debate who was going to win this year's NFC South. Now? It's getting pretty interesting. The Bucs were hopeless on third down against the Lions, finally showing signs of being affected by their endless run of receiver injuries. Mike Evans returned from his strained hamstring only to break his collarbone, and we're still waiting to see the old Chris Godwin. Is Emeka Egbuka enough, or will he hit a rookie wall?
The Falcons are still in the mix, but the positive momentum they'd gained from beating the Commanders and Bills at home didn't travel as they became the latest victim of the undermanned Niners. Bijan Robinson continues to be great, and the defense is more serviceable than years past, but they're still finding their way.
Don't count out the Panthers, who finally proved that they could win a road game by beating the Jets. Sure, that's like beating your kid brother in 1-on-1 on the Nerf hoop in his room, but a road win's a road win. Carolina is one of only six teams still undefeated at home, and one of those victories was a 30-0 mollywhopping of the Falcons. Another was a comeback win over the Cowboys in which the offense, led by Jim Brown reincarnated (ahem, I mean Rico Dowdle) answered every punch Dak Prescott threw.
I'm not predicting that the Panthers are actually going to shock the world and win the NFC South, but the Bucs better have one eye on the road and one eye on Dave Canales' team. A home game against a rested Bills team followed by a trip to Lambeau Field will tell us if the Panthers are here to stay.
Look out, AFC West: The Chiefs might be better than ever
Football enthusiasts everywhere have been eager to shovel dirt on the Chiefs dynasty since the Eagles blew them out in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes no longer had it, Travis Kelce was ready to retire and the whole thing was coming apart at the seams, or at least that's what it looked like.
That narrative only grew louder after an 0-2 start, but since then, the Chiefs look like they've gotten their mojo back in winning four of five while scoring over 30 per game. The explosive plays that even during last year's 15-2 campaign were nowhere to be found have now returned, and that's attributable to more than just the return of Rashee Rice this week. Andy Reid knows what he's doing, and this is a proud team that was tired of hearing about how their time had passed.
There are other teams with better records than the Chiefs right now. Even within their own division, they still trail the Broncos. But there's not a team in the league that looks more dangerous. I can't decide if we're better off using the Undertaker meme where he wakes up out of the coffin or the Breaking Bad one of Aaron Paul yelling, "He can't keep getting away with it!" Both seem very appropriate.
The Chiefs outgained the Raiders 434-95 in Sunday's 31-0 win. They had over 42 minutes of possession time and scored a touchdown on each of their first four drives, all while holding Vegas to three first downs (one via penalty) all day. If that doesn't make Pete Carroll retire, nothing will, because that's as big a beating as you'll ever see. The upcoming schedule is daunting, but something tells me the Commanders, Bills, Broncos and Colts are more worried than the Chiefs are.
The Lions are the team to beat in the NFC, and not just the North
I've believed the Lions were the best team in the NFC since they won at Baltimore on Monday Night Football in Week 3. Admittedly, that loss has paled in retrospect due to the Ravens' struggles, and my faith was shaken after the Chiefs outclassed them last week. After Monday night's destruction of the previously 5-1 Bucs, though, I'm back on the bandwagon.
The Lions have so many ways to beat you. Jahmyr Gibbs is a touchdown threat every time he touches the ball. We can no longer deny that Jared Goff is one of the best quarterbacks in football, and his link with Amon-Ra St. Brown is second to none. The defense, much healthier than a year ago, dominated the Bucs, even without the presence of suspended safety Brian Branch.
The return of Aidan Hutchinson from last season's leg fracture is why the Lions aren't just built to score, they're built to win. Hutchinson looks great with his six sacks, and Dan Campbell doesn't seem bothered in the slightest by the loss of his two coordinators. If this team loses, they bounce back with a vengeance, and now they have two years of playoff heartbreak to fuel them. The Chiefs caught them last week, but I think when push comes to shove, they're going to make the first Super Bowl in franchise history, and they might even mess around and win it.