An ugly early slate gave way to some truly wild stuff late on Sunday. And by the time the dust settled, it felt like we found out a little bit more about who's a contender and who's a pretender this season. The Chiefs look fully back on track after snuffing out the Raiders. The suddenly surging Dallas Cowboys look like a real threat in the NFC East after blasting the Washington Commanders. The Detroit Lions staked their claim to conference supremacy with a convincing win over the Tampa Bay Bucs.
How do the league standings and the playoff picture stack up after Week 7? The top seeds in each conference both held firm this weekend, though the Colts certainly looked more authoritative than the Packers. The playoff picture is far from set, but that doesn’t mean we can’t speculate in October, right? Let’s figure out who would win the Super Bowl if the postseason were set to get underway this weekend.
How would the AFC bracket look if the playoffs had started on Tuesday?
Wild Card round
No. 7 Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3) at No. 2 New England Patriots (5-2)
No sooner had the Jags seemingly stamped themselves as legit AFC contenders with a wild win over the Kansas City Chiefs than Trevor Lawrence and this offense reminded us why it's been so hard to take this team seriously in recent years. It's been awfully ugly in two straight losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams, and it's awfully difficult to trust Lawrence on the road against a rugged Patriots defense. Give me the better quarterback in Drake Maye, and the more proven playoff coach in Mike Vrabel.
No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at No. 3 Denver Broncos (5-2)
Lord help me, but I'm putting my chips on Justin Herbert just one more time. Granted, a lot of that is actually a lack of faith in Bo Nix, who seems to have stagnated a bit after his sensational rookie season. But Jim Harbaugh knows how to win in January, and if the Chargers can get Denver playing from behind, I'm not sure I trust this Broncos offense to catch up despite what happened against the Giants on Sunday. Needing to erase a 19-point deficit at home against the Giants is hardly the sign of a sturdy team, after all. Eventually Herbert has to get the job done when it counts, right?
No. 5 Buffalo Bills (4-2) at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)
All due respect to the Steel Curtain ... come on, do you really expect me to pick 40-something Aaron Rodgers over Josh Allen? Drawing Buffalo in the Wild Card round is a brutal reward for winning your division, and I just haven't seen enough on either side of the ball for me to feel good about Pittsburgh in this spot. I don't think Rodgers and Co. can exploit the vulnerabilities we've seen in the Bills' defense, and I have too much respect for Allen as a playoff riser.
Divisional round
No. 6 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 1 Indianapolis Colts
Not to be too much a prisoner of the moment, but we did just see how this matchup would play out on Sunday and ... well, let's just say it wasn't great for the Chargers. It's fair to have some lingering skepticism about Indiana Jones and the viability of this defense, but man, this is an awfully balanced offensive depth chart, and Shane Steichen and Co. have it rolling right now. As a New York Giants fan, this one hurts, but I can't call for an upset here based on how good Indy's offensive line is.
No. 5 Buffalo Bills at No. 2 New England Patriots
Another rematch of game we've already seen this year, in which Maye announced his dark-horse MVP candidacy by helping New England to a shocking road upset in Buffalo in prime time. All due respect to the Pats, though, I'm still riding with Allen. Call it a young QB's growing pains in their first playoff run, call it respect for the team that's been there before, but I think Allen and Buffalo's offense will be able to do enough to go into Foxboro and get a win.
Championship round
No. 5 Buffalo Bills at No. 1 Indianapolis Colts
Finally, at long last, Allen gets over the hump. This could turn into a bit of a shootout, and in the end, I just trust Allen to not make the crucial mistake more than I do Jones. Jonathan Taylor and the Colts rushing attack gives them one heck of a floor, in a dome game in which points come fast and furious, Allen has the ball last and leads the drive that gets Buffalo back to the Super Bowl for the first time in over 30 years.
How would things look on the NFC side?
Wild Card round
No. 7 Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers (5-2)
Welcome to the first of three matchups between currently 5-2 teams in what's shaping up to be a loaded Wild Card round. The 49ers stole one from L.A. with Mac Jones at the helm a few weeks ago, but they needed a whole slew of breaks to do so, and that was before the injury bug had claimed Fred Warner. San Francisco is battered and bruised right now, and I think Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford will be ready for the rematch here.
No. 6 Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (5-2)
Jalen Hurts and Philly's passing game finally came alive in a stirring win over the Vikings in Minnesota on Sunday. That said, I think the Eagles' quest for a Super Bowl repeat crashes and burns in their playoff opener: Sam Darnold and Jaxson Smith-Njigba feel like a nightmare matchup for a Philly secondary that still doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, while Mike Macdonald could have this limited Eagles scheme in hell for 60 minutes. It'll be tough to go into the Linc and survive, but Seattle gets it done.
No. 5 Detroit Lions (5-2) at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2)
After what went down on Monday night, how can I pick against the Lions here? The Bucs are taking on water right now, with injuries all over their offense. Bucky Irving will be back by this point, but who knows what version of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin we'll get by January? Baker Mayfield is going to have his work cut out for him trying to keep pace with Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Co.; give me Detroit in a warm-weather game that should be conducive to offense.
Divisional round
No. 7 Los Angeles Rams at No. 1 Green Bay Packers
Micah Parsons and this Packers pass rush could have a field day against Stafford. If they don't, though, I think the Rams passing attack could have a big day against this secondary. Which brings us to the million-dollar question: Do you trust Jordan Love to keep pace in the playoffs? The answer, for me, is "not right now". Maybe that changes over the reset of the regular season, but I'll take the sturdier quarterback and the better head coach in this spot.
No. 6 Seattle Seahawks at No. 5 Detroit Lions
What a fun matchup this would be in the dome at Ford Field. It would also represent an opportunity to exact some revenge for Sam Darnold, after he laid an egg with the NFC North on the line in the final week of the 2024 regular season. I think he'll play far better in this spot than he did 12 months prior, but I still like the Lions here to reach the NFC Championship Game: Detroit just has too many weapons and ways to hurt you, and I trust their stars on defense just a bit more.
Championship round
No. 7 Los Angeles Rams at No. 5 Detroit Lions
The narrative here writes itself: Stafford returning to Detroit to try and foil another chance at finally reaching the Super Bowl. McVay facing off with Goff, the man who he dumped in favor of Stafford in order to go win a championship. In the end, I think Los Angeles is able to eke out a hard-fought win, largely because of how confident I am in McVay and these receivers' ability to exploit the man coverage that the Lions are going to throw their way. There's every chance that Detroit's offense runs hot enough to pull this out, but I just trust the Rams slightly more.
Super Bowl LX
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams
All of which brings us here, to Super Bowl LX. Allen and the Bills might never have a better chance to finally scale the AFC mountain, with the Baltimore Ravens down and out and the Kansas City Chiefs digging themselves an early hole. The Rams, meanwhile, are looking to hoist McVay and Stafford into rarefied air as two-time champions.
These are two of the best quarterbacks in the sport, even if they do it in different ways. Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Co. should have plenty of success against a Bills secondary that has sprung more than its fair share of leaks in the early part of this season. Can Allen keep pace? Can Sean McDermott hold up his end in the bargain in this battle of wits?
The answer, to me at least, feels like no. It's more heartbreak for Buffalo, but I think the Rams are just too formidable offensively with too much talent on the defensive line for Allen to overcome by himself.