If the NFL season ended today, the eighth-place Kansas City Chiefs would be out of the playoffs. Despite that fact, it seems there's a growing consensus that the Chiefs are the best team in the AFC, winning four of their last five games after an 0-2 start. The healthy Chiefs look very, very good.
And despite sitting eighth in the standings, there are reasons to think that Kansas City can beat each of the teams ahead of it in a playoff series, even the two teams — the Chargers and Jaguars — that already have head-to-head wins over Kansas City this season.
Here's one advantage that the Chiefs have over each AFC contender, and I promise I'm not just going to say "the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes" for each of these.
Indianapolis Colts: An offense that can take advantage of the Colts pass defense
Daniel Jones looks like the real deal, but is he capable of winning a shootout against Patrick Mahomes? Because that's what he'll have to do based on how the Colts defense has played.
The Colts allow the fourth-most passing yards per game. They've managed to force nine interceptions already, but against a quarterback like Mahomes, Indianapolis can't just count on getting turnovers.
Indianapolis has also allowed the most passing first downs in the league, and Mahomes might be the master of the dink-and-dunk at this point in his career. When defenses started playing two high safeties against him, he adjusted well and figured out new ways to beat teams.
The Colts are for real. With that said, there are varying degrees to what 'for real' means here, and as long as the pass defense struggles, the team's ceiling is likely losing to Kansas City or Buffalo in a playoff game.
New England Patriots: Playoff experience
Drake Maye is playing some incredible football at the moment. You can make a solid argument that he's an MVP contender. But he's also only in his second NFL season and has never played in a playoff game.
The other six teams on this list are quarterbacked by players who've been to the postseason before. Drake Maye has not been to the postseason.
Now, look. I'm not one of those 'you need playoff experience to be good in the playoffs' guys, or, at least, I'm not usually one of those guys. New England can easily beat, like, Denver or Jacksonville in a playoff game with Maye under center. I just don't see a quarterback in his first playoff season being able to get past Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Denver Broncos: Better weapons for the quarterback
Plenty has been made about the Chiefs' lack of weapons around Mahomes over the last few years, but at the moment, the trio of Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown plus the aging-but-still-good Travis Kelce gives the team the best supporting cast since the Tyreek Hill era.
If you want to talk about an AFC West team whose lack of weapons will be an issue in January, you have to jump on I-70 and drive 600 miles west to Denver, where you'll find Bo Nix throwing the football to...IDK, some guys.
Like, nothing against No. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton and tight end Evan Engram, who are both good players, but Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims and Pat Bryant as your next three options in the passing game is scary. Sure, there's the Nix-Franklin connection that goes back to Oregon, but can Denver really trust these pass-catchers in a playoff game?
Pittsburgh Steelers: Recent playoff success
The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost six consecutive playoff games. Their last playoff win was in January 2017 against the Chiefs, a game where the Steelers scored zero touchdowns and just Chris Boswell-ed KC to death. Notable things that happened in that game from the Chiefs side include Alex Smith throwing a touchdown to Albert Wilson and Spencer Ware rushing for a touchdown.
Ever since that game, Pittsburgh has just been unable to seal the deal in the playoffs, and the last loss that was even by one score came in January 2018 against the Jaguars. Pittsburgh has lost its postseason mojo.
Maybe having Aaron Rodgers now will change that, but if the Steelers make the playoffs, it'd be Rodgers' first playoff game in almost four years, so there's no guarantee that the former Super Bowl champion has the juice left to beat the Chiefs when it matters.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen can't beat KC in the playoffs
Josh Allen and the Bills have faced the Chiefs four times in the playoffs. The Bills are 0-4 in those games.
At some point, you'd think that has to change, but it hasn't yet, so it's probably got to mean something, right? Like, I understand that "QB vs. QB" playoff battles are a reductive way of understanding things since the quarterbacks never physically get out there at the same time to play against each other, but there's got to be some mental thing going on here, right?
And I don't mean a mental thing with Allen. This isn't, like, a 'look how weak he is' take. He's been good in these games for the most part! I think it's a mental thing from the Mahomes side, like the dude just refuses to lose to Josh Allen in the playoffs.
Los Angeles Chargers: The Chargers defense is bad
Okay, this is kind of just a repeat of the Colts argument, but it's because both teams feel similar. The offense is good, but the defense threatens to hold the team back.
That's really been highlighted over the past three games, as the Chargers have given up 27 points to both the Commanders and Dolphins before surrendering 38 points this week to the Colts.
There's also the run game. I wouldn't say the Chiefs are better on the ground than the Chargers are. Instead, I'd say that both teams have had rough rushing attacks, but that kind of works out for the Chiefs. It's better for the run game to be a wash and to have an advantage at quarterback, which is why if I were Andy Reid, I'd much rather have a playoff rematch with the Chargers over having to face the Colts, since Jonathan Taylor gives the team a big ground advantage.
Jacksonville Jaguars: A quarterback who can protect the ball
Yes, I know that Patrick Mahomes threw a pick-six against the Jaguars just a few weeks ago. But overall, Mahomes does a good job avoiding turnovers, especially in the playoffs. In the regular season, Mahomes has thrown interceptions on 1.7 percent of his throws, but that drops to 1.3 percent in the playoffs.
That's important, because the Jaguars are winning games despite quarterback Trevor Lawrence struggling thanks in large part to an ability to generate turnovers. Jacksonville has picked off 10 passes this season, the second-most in the league, but it's notable that those all came over the first five games of the season. Jacksonville has zero interceptions in the past two games and lost both. If Mahomes avoids interceptions, the Jaguars have no shot in a playoff rematch.