NFL Free Agency: Predicting 9 overpays that teams and fans will instantly regret

There are a few ways you can look at free agency. You can just be cool with whatever happens. You can do all of your research and have opinions about who your team should sign. Or you can prepare for the worst so that anything good seems that much better. 

You’re a psychopath if you do the latter, and it’s probably a psychological red flag that you need to talk to a therapist about… but it’s the one that’s the most emotionally safe. Let’s dig in on that. 

We have time to be optimistic and think about free agents who are going to have some good value, but for now, let’s focus on the guys who are probably going to be overpaid by someone in a few weeks.

Trey Hendrickson (DE, Bengals)

In almost every free agent ranking that you see, Trey Hendrickson is at or near the top. That’s because the last time we saw him play a full season unburdened by contract negotiations was in 2024, and he had a league-high 17.5 sacks. 

There’s a chance that player is still in there somewhere, but we’re looking at a 31-year-old who’s coming off a season defined by injuries and contract disputes.

Hendrickson wants guaranteed money and a whole lot of it. Could he be worth it? Absolutely. If he gives you double-digit sacks in 2026, you’re going to be a happy camper… However, an overpay includes paying him for more than just one season. 

Jalen Nailor (WR, Vikings)

Every offseason, a wide receiver gets signed for mondo money, and it reminds you that he actually exists. Take Christian Kirk: In 2021, he had 77 catches for 982 yards and five touchdowns. That’s a good season, but not a great season by any means. 

In free agency going into the 2022 season, the Jaguars signed him to a four-year deal for $72 million ($18 million per year, $37 million guaranteed), and no one really expected it or understood it. 

An overpay for Jalen Nailor is kind of like that, but not nearly to that magnitude. 

He’s coming off a career season where he had 29 catches for 444 yards and four touchdowns. That’s very, very mediocre… but there is going to be a general manager or front office that convinces themselves that his low use/production was because he shares a workload with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and that the guys throwing the ball were J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer.

To be fair, that’s sound logic. Those are tough guys to compete with, and those are not good throwers of the football. However, that’s absolutely not a reason to overpay and give the cat anything over a one-year contract for $5-ish million.

Deebo Samuel (WR, Commanders)

Deebo Samuel is a tricky guy to think about. On one hand, he offers an incredible amount of positional versatility, and when he’s on, he’s really on. On the other hand, he’s absolutely cooked. 

In 2021, he had that awesome All-Pro season where he had 1,770 scrimmage yards (1,405 receiving, 365 rushing) and 14 touchdowns (6 receiving, 8 rushing). It turns out that season wasn’t his coming-out party, but it was his peak. 

Now he’s 30 years old, and he’s burned up all of his gas… But he’s still probably going to sign a multi-year deal for $13 million (or more) per year to play for one of his former coaches (Shanahan, McDaniel, Kubiak, Slowik). 

The only reason he was a WR1 for the Commanders last season was that Terry McLaurin missed so much time. At this point, he’s much better as a gadget guy, and that’s entirely too much money for a gadget guy. 

Isaac Seumalo (G, Steelers)

Isaac Seumalo is a good football player, and that’s undeniable. But he’s going to be turning 33 in October, and he’s starting to have a little bit of an injury bug. In the past two seasons, he’s missed some time with a pec injury and a triceps injury, but it hasn’t been anything that makes you worry for his career. 

That’s to say, it’s not a ‘Man, this guy can’t stay healthy’ kind of thing; it’s more of a ‘He’s getting up off the metaphorical ground pretty slowly these days’ kind of thing, and that’s a bummer. 

He’s earned a good contract, but it shouldn’t be one that you’d give a 26-year-old who can be a cornerstone of an offensive line. 

Jermaine Eluemunor (RT, Giants)

If Jermaine Eluemunor doesn’t just re-sign with the Giants, then he’s got the makings to be the most overpaid offensive lineman, and good on him for getting to that point. 

It’s easy to say that he simply overperformed last season with the Giants, but in reality, it looked like he just got a whole lot more comfortable and got a whole lot better; he ended up being very solid (which was kind of mean because it really highlighted how bad the interior offensive line was).

Regardless, when a guy flashes like that and shows that kind of growth, he ends up getting a pay raise when the time comes… and the time has come.

An overpay for Eluemunor would be the Ronnie Stanley money from last free agency (three years for $60 million, $44 million guaranteed). 

Javonte Williams (RB, Dallas)

Javonte Williams’ 2025 season came out of nowhere. Yeah, he was a second-round draft pick in 2021, and yes, he rushed for 900 yards as a rookie even though he had a 50-50 split of the carries with Melvin Gordon. 

But that was before his knee turned into mush in the 2022 season. Since then, he had looked like a washed-up shell of himself. 

And then he went to Dallas on a $3.5 million deal and ripped off a 1,200-yard and 11-touchdown season. The dude has had just about every up-and-down that a professional football career could have... And he’s only 25 years old (turning 26 in April).

That means that he’s shown that he’s not actually washed, and he’s still got age on his side. Then you mix that with a draft class that doesn’t have a whole lot of running back talent, and we’re talking about a bunch of teams gunning for some of these proven guys. 

So you know what? Let’s lump the other good running backs in this category. That’s Kenneth Walker III, Rico Dowdle, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne (Did you know he’s 27? That’s kind of wild).

These cats are good candidates to be overpaid, and good for them for being in that spot. 

Kevin Byard (S, Bears)

It’s not every year that the last season’s first-team All-Pro safety, who led the entire league in interceptions, becomes available in free agency. Kevin Byard was the first-team All-Pro safety, who led the league in interceptions… and would you look at that? He’s a free agent.

Typically, paying a guy like that in free agency is a great idea, especially since it’s so hard for teams across the league to assess safeties in the draft process. But Byard is going to turn 33 this year, and he’s going into his 11th season as a pro.

If a team thinks they’re a play-making safety away from being a contender in 2026, then it’s totally fine to pay him top money on a two-year contract with 50% to 60% of it as guaranteed money. Anything other than that is a gamble on an aging defensive back, and that’s not the kind of player you want to gamble on. 

Malik Willis (QB, Packers)

A quarter of the league needs quarterbacks: the Dolphins, Jets, Browns, Steelers, Colts, Vikings, Falcons, and Cardinals. If those teams don’t want to trade for one, their options for starting quarterbacks are 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, Daniel Jones who tore his Achilles in December, Mac Jones, and Malik Willis. 

That’s eight teams potentially competing for maybe four guys. Hell, maybe you want to take away half of those teams because they’re delusional about where they are at the position: that’s still four teams who need a quarterback and maybe four quarterbacks. 

Willis is not just the youngest of those guys, but he also has the most upside of any of them… That absolutely doesn’t mean that he’s going to be some golden boy who is going to turn around a franchise.

This entire thing is primed for him to make boatloads of money, even though he’s only started six games in his four-year career and only thrown 155 total passes. Is that the kind of cat you want to throw $40 million at? Nah. 

Remember when he threw out his shoulder against the Ravens in Week 17? I do.

Romeo Doubs (WR, Packers)

Remember how, for the past three seasons, you’ve looked at the Packers wide receiver room and said, ‘That’s a lot of guys who are all pretty good. It makes sense that they don’t have a real WR1,’ and then you were totally right, and there was never a WR1?

That might be changing a little bit now because their wide receiver room is going to start getting whittled down. This offseason, Romeo Doubs is the guy who’s definitely leaving. 

That’s good news for teams who aren’t willing to pay for Alec Pierce or who go after George Pickens. We know Doubs is a good receiver, but he’s been in a very busy offense with a billion mouths to feed. So it’s not like the Packers are letting him hit free agency because he stinks or anything like that; it’s just that they don’t really need him.

Aside from some concussion stuff, he’s been really healthy during his career, and he’s also got good hands and speed. However, he’s coming off the best season of his career, with 55 catches for 724 yards and six touchdowns. You’re going to overpay a guy coming off his best season, plain and simple. 

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