After what turned out to be a pretty weak week of NFL games, fans should be excited because Week 11 doesn't look like it's going to disappoint. The Kansas City Chiefs renew the rivalry with the Denver Broncos with a trip to Mile High, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams will vie for power in the NFC West, and let's not forget about the Detroit Lions visiting the champion Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night, or the rest of the games that could deliver in NFL Week 11. It's going to be fun, but it's not going to make NFL picks and predictions easy in the slightest.
And if we're being honest, we might just need it to be easy. Last week was a disaster (thanks a lot, Bills, et al.), and we're still chasing the success of last season. That's okay, though, because it does seem like there might be a few layups this week to pick and not think twice about. Could that backfire? Obviously. But that's never stopped us before — so, let's adventure once again into our NFL picks and predictions for every game,
2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 88-61 (Last Week: 8-6 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 67-82 (Last Week: 5-9 | 2024 record 147-118-1)
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NFL Week 11 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 11 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Jets at Patriots (TNF) | Patriots | Patriots -12.5 |
Commanders at Dolphins (Spain) | Dolphins | Dolphins -2.5 |
Bears at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings -3 |
Packers at Giants | Packers | Giants +7 |
Panthers at Falcons | Panthers | Panthers +3.5 |
Chargers at Jaguars | Chargers | Chargers -3 |
Bengals at Steelers | Steelers | Bengals +5.5 |
Buccaneers at Bills | Buccaneers | Buccaneers +5.5 |
Texans at Titans | Texans | Texans -7 |
Seahawks at Rams | Seahawks | Seahawks +3 |
49ers at Cardinals | 49ers | 49ers -3 |
Chiefs at Broncos | Chiefs | Chiefs -3.5 |
Ravens at Browns | Ravens | Ravens -7.5 |
Lions at Eagles (SNF) | Lions | Lions +2.5 |
Cowboys at Raiders | Cowboys | Cowboys -3.5 |
Teams on bye in Week 11: Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints
We're not going to have the Chiefs-Broncos showdown as our toughest or easiest pick this week, but it does deserve some of its own shine given the stakes of this game. A win for Denver would potentially put them in a position to run away with the AFC West, not to mention sneakily making the playoff path for Kansas City much more difficult than anyone wants to really admit or imagine at this point.
Even on the road, though, I have to take the Chiefs and the points as favorites here. Not only do we have Andy Reid off the bye, as bankable of an asset as you'll find in the NFL, but the Broncos being 8-2 right now still just doesn't quite compute, particularly with how Bo Nix and the offense are playing. This is a group that's just 15th in EPA per play and a dismal 28th in Success Rate. Yes, the defense is elite, no doubt, but I can't trust this offense.
I'm not here to say that Kansas City is going to run away with this game and leave the Broncos in the dust. However, with the offense having the advantage off the bye week and Denver's offense now having to face Steve Spagnuolo with how middlingly they've performed, especially of late, picking anything other than a Chiefs win and cover would go against my principles.
Toughest NFL Week 11 prediction to make
Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Los Angeles Rams
Much more difficult in Week 11 to pick than KC-Denver is the other headliner in my book, the Seahawks and Rams clashing. These might well be the two best teams in the NFC this season, and seeing them duel for the division crown this week is going to be a treat. And really, there's a case to be made for both sides in this game.
For the Rams, Sean McVay is all the way in his bag right now. We haven't seen a defense come up with an answer for his wild 13-personnel usage this season, and on top of that Matthew Stafford has been executing to perfection while the defense is feasting. But then the Seahawks offense is out here getting seemingly whatever they want with Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But more important to me is Mike Macdonald's defense, which has been feasting.
This isn't meant to bury the Rams, but the level of competition, no matter how dominant they've been, hasn't exactly been a group of world-beaters they've toppled in the past month. Seattle is by far the most formidable defense and overall opponent that they've seen over this span. And while the Seahawks haven't been up against a murderer's row either, I think what we've seen from them is more translatable to a matchup such as this one.
Easiest NFL Week 11 pick on the board
Houston Texans (-7) at Tennessee Titans
There is no world where I'm going to tell you that I trust the Houston Texans. Sorry, it's just not going to happen. While the return of C.J. Stroud isn't necessarily certain as of Wednesday, that doesn't matter to me either. Of the very few things I'm confident about in this NFL season, at the top of that list is the simple, infallible truth that the Tennessee Titans are a no good, very bad, not-going-to-win-games football team.
Even if I'm dubious about Houston overall, there is still no reason not to trust this defense, especially when they're up against one of the worst offensive lines in the league and a rookie quarterback in Cam Ward. There's still a chance that Ward can be a franchise quarterback in Tennessee, but I don't believe we're going to see many of those flashes this season because the situation is just so abjectly terrible in the year of our lord, 2025.
The Texans should be able to kick the training wheels off of Ward and the Titans, and this team doesn't know how to ride a bike without them. While a full seven points is a lot of respect for Houston when Davis Mills might be their starting quarterback, what I ultimately choose to view it as is deserved disrepsect toward Tennessee.
The pick that probably has you scratching your head
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) at Buffalo Bills
I promise this isn't an overreaction to the Buffalo Bills losing to the Miami Dolphins last week. Having said that, there are definitely signs that we should be a bit more worried about the Bills than just a one-off performance in South Beach. What makes that worse is that a lot of the issues that seem to be at hand with Buffalo are ones that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are uniquely set up to exploit in this Week 11 matchup.
One of the biggest things that we saw in the Dolphins loss was how much Josh Allen and the passing offense struggle when James Cook and the run game aren't working in the way they have much of the year. That's fascinating considering that the Bucs, two TreVeyon Henderson explosive runs last week not withstanding, are the eighth-best run defense in the league in terms of EPA per rush allowed.
Beyond that, the Bills defense is just an infirmary ward on the front right now, which puts the spotlight on a back seen that hasn't done much to earn our trust to this point. For all of the faults of the Buccaneers, the offense hasn't let up in its ability to score, and they may be getting Bucky Irving back this week as well.
Both Buffalo and Tampa are good but highly imperfect. If we're just looking at the matchup, though, the advantage should be with the Bucs in this game, so that's why I'm taking them to get the upset.