We won't quite be treated to the same host of elite matchups in NFL Week 12 that we were last week, the slate still offers a ton of fun, especially given the narratives throughout the league. The Kansas City Chiefs welcoming the Indianapolis Colts to Arrowhead on Sunday would be a big game regardless, but the stakes have been raised with Patrick Mahomes and Company now sitting at .500 and needing to make a push. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers look to take full control of the NFC North, but the rival Minnesota Vikings are coming to town. Those are the types of waters we have to navigate with our NFL picks and predictions this week.
Beyond that, there is still plenty to watch. The Detroit Lions and Seattle Seahawks need a big bounce-back week, Shedeur Sanders could potentially make his first career start for the Cleveland Browns, and when is Eagles-Cowboys not entertaining? Watching the games will be a blast on Sunday and Monday, but making NFL picks for Week 12, with predictions straight-up and against the spread, has me sweating before we ever get there.
2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 97-67 (Last Week: 9-6 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 73-90-1 (Last Week: 6-8-1 | 2024 record 147-118-1)
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NFL Week 12 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 12 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Bills at Texans (TNF) | Bills | Bills -5.5 |
Colts at Chiefs | Chiefs | Colts +3.5 |
Patriots at Bengals | Patriots | Patriots -7.5 |
Steelers at Bears | Bears | Bears -2.5 |
Jets at Ravens | Ravens | Ravens -13.5 |
Seahawks at Titans | Seahawks | Seahawks -13.5 |
Giants at Lions | Lions | Lions -10.5 |
Vikings at Packers | Packers | Vikings +6.5 |
Browns at Raiders | Raiders | Raiders -3.5 |
Jaguars at Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals +2.5 |
Falcons at Saints | Falcons | Falcons +1.5 |
Eagles at Cowboys | Eagles | Cowboys +3.5 |
Buccaneers at Rams (SNF) | Rams | Rams -6.5 |
Panthers at 49ers (MNF) | 49ers | 49ers -7 |
Teams on bye in Week 12: Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders
One thing you have to love that we are indeed getting for the second straight week is a balanced schedule. While you can quibble about the quality of Bills-Texans on Thursday night, and also Panthers-Niners on Monday night, the Sunday run has us with wall-to-wall action throughout the day and big games in each window. We can start the day with Colts-Chiefs and Vikings-Packers, go right into Eagles-Cowboys, and finish the day off with Carrie Underwood singing us into a sneaky awesome Bucs-Rams matchup.
Even then, though, some of what could be called the lesser games still are worth watching, beyond Shedeur's potential first start, too. I'm still trying to figure out both the Jaguars and Cardinals, so watching those teams face off should be calamitous. Meanwhile, the Patriots are trying to stay hot, while the Bears are trying to come on strong and put the Steelers in a bind.
What I'm saying is that I'm excited for Week 12. But let's dive a little deeper into some of the more notable picks from the week, so I can at least explain my thought process.
Toughest NFL Week 12 prediction to make
Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Go figure, one of the marquee matchups of Week 12 also ends up being one of the most difficult to pick. Make no mistake, I have full respect for what the Colts have done this season, and while the defense — even with the Sauce Gardner additions — isn't a world-beater, this offense is more than good enough to attack the Chiefs, especially on the ground. Kansas City's defense ranks just 23rd in EPA allowed per play against the run, so Jonathan Taylor may well have a field day at Arrowhead.
At the same time, however, we've seen strong pass defenses rattle Daniel Jones already this season, and the Chiefs are Top 12 in that department. More importantly, though, Mahomes and the offense have been absolutely cooking of late, the loss to Denver aside. Indianapolis has only faced one Top 10 offense in EPA per play so far this season, which was a loss to the Rams.
When I put this all into the blender to try and come up with a pick, it makes the middle feel like the best option, especially with Kansas City playing at home. The Chiefs should be able to get the win in this one, but I expect it to be a close, back-and-forth affair, so the Colts getting 3.5 points is where I have to go on that end of the bargain.
Easiest NFL Week 12 pick on the board
Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) at Tennessee Titans
Not only do I fully expect that the Seahawks will be out for blood after losing so bitterly to the rival Rams last week, but they are just far and away the superior team when you match them up with the Titans. Sam Darnold almost surely isn't going to have another four-interception game this week, and the offense should absolutely hum against a Tennessee pass defense that has allowed a 70.59% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Even more than that, however, the Titans have fielded the worst offense in the league this season in terms of EPA, and are now facing an uber difficult Mike Macdonald scheme that has the Seahawks defense ranking sixth in both EPA allowed per play and defensive success rate. Cam Ward is going to be put into a blender, and while I fully believe that Seattle will probably reach the high-20s on Sunday in terms of scoring, they could also probably win this game 14-0 and still cover for us with how dominant I expect the defense to perform.
The pick that probably has you scratching your head
Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals (+1.5)
The two teams that I've had the most difficulty figuring out this season are now playing one another in Week 12 — what could go wrong?
Both the Jaguars and Cardinals have been completely mired in inconsistency throughout this season. That's definitely been more so the case in Jacksonville, when any given week they can look like a threat to win the AFC South, only to follow that up shortly thereafter by looking like they need to blow the whole operation up and start anew. Arizona, for their part, has been just plain bad defensively of late, but we've also seen the offense put up numbers behind Jacoby Brissett.
Ultimately, though, I over-simplified this pick because I don't trust either of these teams. Wouldn't it just simply make sense with the Jaguars, given their propensity for letdown games, to follow up a dominant win over the Chargers by going on the road to Arizona and losing as a favorite? That seems to be right in line with the narrative about this team, so I'll take the Cardinals as the home dog and just hold my breath for the entire 60 minutes of action come Sunday.