NFL Week 14 picks and predictions, straight-up and ATS: Will Chiefs right the ship?

NFL Week 14 has a chance to be a massive one, especially with only five more weeks in the regular season and teams trying to either hold on or make one last push for the playoffs. The Kansas City Chiefs are, well, chief among those teams. Patrick Mahomes and Company are just 6-6 after falling on Thanksgiving to the Dallas Cowboys, which leaves them in severe danger of missing the postseason. Now, they have to face the Houston Texans, who appear to be hitting their stride, in Week 14. And that's just the tip of the iceberg as we go into making our NFL picks and predictions.

We're stuck in a holding pattern with our NFL picks. Even after a .500 Thanksgiving week with our straight-up predictions, we did come in slightly better against the spread. The problem is that we still have a ton of ground to make up to get back to anywhere close to last weekend. Luckily, the Chiefs aren't the only team in Week 14 that presents a ton of opportunity. Let's not let it go to waste with our NFL Week 14 picks with predictions for every game on the slate from Thursday to Monday.

NFL Week 14 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

• Team on bye in Week 14: Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 115-79 (Last Week: 8-8 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 88-104-2 (Last Week: 8-7-1 | 2024 record 147-118-1)

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

It's truly a sneaky loaded week in the NFL. Not only do we have the aforementioned Texans-Chiefs matchup, but we'll get the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens battling for AFC North supremacy, the Chicago Bears looking for a statement win as nearly a full touchdown underdog against the Green Bay Packers, the Philadelphia Eagles trying to re-find their footing, and so much more.

But we actually get a banger to start off Week 14 as the Dallas Cowboys visit the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football. And we have some thoughts there given that's a huge game for playoff implications, but also simply a tough matchup to predict.

Toughest NFL Week 14 prediction to make

Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Detroit Lions

Given that the Cowboys have been on such a torrid run as of late, I was a bit surprised, even with them on the road in Motown, to see Dallas as a field-goal underdog in this matchup with the Lions. At the same time, I fully understand it. While it certainly wasn't a pretty Thanksgiving Day performance against the rival Packers, the general belief would be that Jared Goff and the Lions offense should be able to find much more success against this suspect Cowboys defense.

Or will they? Since the acquisition of Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline, Dallas' defense hasn't been a sieve. More importantly, the Lions offensive line has been a bit of a mess and the Cowboys pass rush should be able to at least somewhat take advantage. Throw in the fact that Amon-Ra St. Brown might not be ready for this game, and that does potentially limit the bounce-back possibility, at least somewhat for the Detroit offense.

The deciding factor to take the Cowboys in this matchup, both straight-up and against the spread, is the lack of defense for the Lions. Detroit's secondary has been suspect throughout the season, but more worrisome has been the complete lack of help for Aidan Hutchinson in the pass rush. That should allow Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense to have free reign and, ultimately, pick up this win to keep a playoff push alive.

Easiest NFL Week 14 pick on the board

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Yes, I'm aware that Sam Darnold is coming off one of his worst games of the season with Seattle. I'm also aware that the Seahawks are having to travel across the country to play in Atlanta for this game. On top of that, amid Darnold's struggles, it's worth noting that the Seahawks have been one of the worst rushing offenses in the league this season.

And I still don't care — give me Seattle covering 7.5 points and I'm not thinking twice about it. While I do still have a ton of faith in the Seahawks, particularly on defense and matching up against Kirk Cousins, who has looked anything but good since subbing in for the injured Michael Penix Jr., the biggest factor in this pick is the Falcons. Because, man, this team in Atlanta looks completely and entirely cooked.

With the strength of the Seahawks defense, I worry that Atlanta won't be able to move the ball in this game. But even if they find just a modicum of success there, the defense has fallen off a cliff as well over the past month. I think this is a legitimate bounce-back game for Darnold and the offense, and I frankly wouldn't be surprised if this one felt like it was over by halftime.

The pick that probably has you scratching your head

New Orleans Saints (+8.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Picking the New Orleans Saints to cover the spread — what could possibly go wrong?

In fairness to myself, I'm not taking the Saints and Tyler Shough to win a road game against a division rival outright. That would just be plain preposterous. However, let's not act like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been anything close to a world-beater, or even what they were early in the season. The offense hasn't been nearly as potent over the past few weeks, but the defense has been even more worrisome.

Shough is still not my cup of tea, but the Saints have been finding success on the offensive side of the ball lately, and should be able to continue to do so against this lackluster Bucs defense. Again, I don't think New Orleans has nearly enough firepower or defensive fortitude to win this game, especially on the road. However, getting eight points and a hook is more than enough for me to take a swing as this being one of the head-scratchers of the week when we get to the final score and the Saints cover.