The NFL playoff picture is quite crowded, but the advancing calendar of the regular season is slowly whittling down the field of potential postseason contenders. The New York Giants were the first team to be officially eliminated after Week 12, and they were joined in Week 13 by Tennessee, Las Vegas, Arizona and New Orleans.
While several other teams are basically cooked, who will be the next to be officially eliminated? Let's take a look at five teams who could find themselves locked out after Week 14, starting with New York's other football team.
New York Jets
The Jets knew they weren't going anywhere after an 0-7 start, which made it easy for GM Darren Mougey to sell Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams at the deadline, but Aaron Glenn's team has shown some fight of late. Sunday's win over the Atlanta Falcons marked New York's third win its past five games, with the two losses being competitive contests against potential playoff teams in New England and Baltimore.
Glenn may regret waiting so long to switch quarterbacks since Tyrod Taylor has shown that getting merely mediocre passing could have helped the Jets snag a few extra wins to keep them on the fringes of the postseason picture. Even with a winnable game against Miami on Sunday, 3-9 is too big a hole for the Jets to dig out of and they could be officially knocked out if three of Buffalo, Houston, Indianapolis and Los Angeles earn victories.
Cleveland Browns
The AFC's other candidate to watch in the elimination derby is the Browns, who lost to San Francisco on Sunday to fall to 3-9. Shedeur Sanders is in line for another start for Cleveland, which is going to use the rest of this year to evaluate his potential fit as a long-term starter for the franchise.
The math is basically the same for Cleveland as it is for the Jets, who will be officially eliminated with a loss and could still get locked out with a win. The Browns also own two first round picks to potentially select another quarterback in the draft, so Cleveland may be incentivized to keep losing since their pick from Jacksonville will likely land in the late teens at best.
Washington Commanders
Even though Sunday night's overtime loss to Denver dropped the Commanders to 3-9, there are still tiebreaker scenarios that could see them sneak into the dance with an 8-9 record. Part of that is due to the fact that they have two games remaining against the Eagles in Weeks 16 and 18, so running the table would involve sweeping Philadelphia on their way to a potential NFC East crown.
The odds of that happening are extremely slim, however, and one more loss or a win from the Eagles (who would need to lose out to give the Commanders a path to the division) will officially end Washington's chances of returning to the postseason. Elimination could also impact how Washington decides to approach Jayden Daniels, who is trying to return from injury and could still use some reps to continue his development as an NFL quarterback.
Atlanta Falcons
The NFC South's mediocrity has given the Falcons false hope of remaining in contention, but losing on the road to the Jets on Sunday is a sign that they are truly cooked. Carolina and Tampa Bay both won on Sunday as well, dropping Atlanta three games behind both teams in the win column, and they are also 0-3 against those division rivals.
Once Tampa Bay or Carolina gets far enough ahead of the Falcons, they will be officially done since the path to a wild card is far more challenging than the division. Time will tell whether or not Atlanta can do enough to save Raheem Morris' job after another underwhelming year.
Minnesota Vikings
Bad quarterback play has already stacked the deck against the Vikings, who are 4-8 on the year and only 2-5 in NFC games. Things somehow got worse when J.J. McCarthy sat out of Sunday's game with a concussion as Max Brosmer threw four interceptions in a 26-0 loss in Seattle, moving Minnesota to the brink of elimination.
With the San Francisco 49ers in command of the last wild card at 9-4, a loss on Sunday would officially end Minnesota's chances of getting back to the playoffs. The drop off from last year's 14-win team combined with the decision to let Sam Darnold walk in favor of McCarthy should raise eyebrows from ownership towards head coach Kevin O'Connell, whose reputation as a quarterback whisperer is taking a big hit with McCarthy looking nothing like an NFL-caliber passer.