NFL Week 15 picks and predictions, straight-up and ATS: Bills-Patriots, Packers-Broncos lead huge slate

Games are always going to have big stakes when you get to something like Week 15, be those for the NFL Playoffs or looking further ahead to the NFL Draft. But this week certainly feels a bit more impactful than most. The New England Patriots can prove themselves (again) with a huge AFC East showdown against the Buffalo Bills, the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos will try to continue to affirm themselves as contenders, and let's not forget about sneaky big games like Ravens-Bengals, Chargers-Chiefs and several more. Not exactly a simple slate for our NFL picks and predictions in Week 15.

In reality, though, something like NFL Week 15 is just fun to be a fan for. And we have to make picks for the games, then sure, we'll do that. At the same time, this is going to be a phenomenal Sunday — not so much Thursday, Falcons and Buccaneers — to plant yourself on the couch and just watch what should be quite a lot of good football. So let's move one step closer to doing exactly that and get through these Week 15 NFL picks with predictions straight-up and against the spread for all 16 games.

NFL Week 15 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 122-86 (Last Week: 7-7 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 93-113-2 (Last Week: 5-9 | 2024 record 147-118-1)

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Bye weeks are done and, man, ain't a full slate just absolutely beautiful? We'll start to see this normalize a bit more, but we are in a stretch in which the primetime games have been a bit lackluster. Like, Vikings-Cowboys could be fun, but it could also be an abject disaster, the same of which is true of the Monday night affair between the Dolphins and Steelers.

On the whole, though, this Week 15 has me excited enough that I don't even care about that. Fire me up with Bills-Patriots and more in the early window, give me Lions-Rams and Packers-Broncos in the late window, and then I'll probably be too ecstatic to even care about Sunday Night Football at that point — okay, that's probably a lie, but I will have already had a good fill of what should be phenomenal games.

Toughest NFL Week 15 prediction to make

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+1.5)

When the Patriots visited the Bills in Orchard Park back in early October, it felt like a huge prove-it moment for Drake Maye and New England. At the time, the Pats were sitting at 2-2, but had only beaten the Dolphins and Panthers. So for them to go on the road and primetime to beat rival Buffalo felt quite substantial. But the power ratings still love the Bills, so they're favored for the rematch in Foxborough on Sunday.

Here's the thing, though — I simply think that the Patriots are the better constructed team. More importantly, though, what they do well behooves them against the Bills.

Looking back on that first game, the New England run defense clamped down on James Cook, limiting him to just 49 yards on 15 carries. That put a ton on Josh Allen both with his arms and legs, and he couldn't do quite enough to get it done. That's been the M.O. for stopping the Bills this season, especially with their suspect defense. Now, the Pats are coalescing even more and, with home-field now on their side as well, I have a hard time thinking that the Patriots don't just pull off the season sweep.

Easiest NFL Week 15 pick on the board

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5)

Philip Rivers leaving high school coaching after not being in the NFL for a half-decade to play for the Indianapolis Colts at 44 years old is objectively one of the favorite things I've seen in this league and sport in quite some time. I'm going to have eyes on this game, assuming that Rivers does indeed get the start after coming in off the street. At the same time, I'm not going to get swept in the narrative of his return to the NFL and think that Indianapolis is in a good spot for this matchup.

Not only were the Colts on the decline prior to the Daniel Jones injury, but they're also traveling across the country to Seattle for this game. Oh, and let's not forget that the 44-year-old Rivers coming in cold off the street now has to face off against one of the NFL's best defenses.

Any time that you see a line that's touching nearly two touchdowns, there's reason to show trepidations. Things can always get tricky on any given Sunday. But in this specific instance, the gap between this Rivers-led Colts team and the Seahawks is just far too great to ignore.

The pick that probably has you scratching your head

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+2.5)

In all honesty, this could've also qualified for the toughest pick to make. We have two legitimate contenders facing off at Mile High this week. But why you're probably scratching your head is that I've been one of the staunchest detractors when it comes to the Broncos' success this season, while also believing in the full potential of the Packers.

When it comes to this game, though, the home-field advantage obviously plays a part in backing Denver, but there's also the simple fact that the Packers are due for a letdown performance. I know that sounds quite dumbed-down, and maybe it is — but when a team, and specifically head coach Matt LaFleur, has shown you their tendencies, it's sometimes best to believe them.

Let's not forget, Green Bay came out of the gate like gangbusters the first two weeks, then lost to the Browns and tied with the Cowboys the following two weeks. That led to three straight wins, followed by a home loss to the Panthers and an even uglier loss to the Eagles. Now, on the back of four straight wins, they go on the road to face one of the best defenses in the league. I know a letdown game when I see one, and this is that for the Pack.