Just when you think the NFL Playoffs are set entering the final four weeks, we get thrown all kinds of curveballs. Whether it was the Daniel Jones injury that might sink the Indianapolis Colts, the Denver Broncos again struggling to pull away from the rival Raiders, the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears duking it out, or even the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles watching their stocks continue to fall, we are never without surprises. And that too will come with some changes to our NFL Power Rankings.
At the same time, though, the postseason being in such full view lends itself to looking toward the top of our NFL Power Rankings. More specifically, it becomes about looking at the teams atop the power rankings and determining whether you can trust them or not — separating the contenders from pretenders. While we won't be doing that for every team, we will be looking at some of the teams that are currently falling into either category.
Contenders, pretenders and NFL Power Rankings
- NFL Power Rankings — Week 15
- Contenders that I actually trust
- Pretenders that don't deserve your trust
NFL Power Rankings — Week 15
NFL Power Rankings | Last Week's Rank |
|---|---|
1. Los Angeles Rams | 1 |
2. Denver Broncos | 2 |
3. New England Patriots | 3 |
4. Seattle Seahawks | 4 |
5. Green Bay Packers | 5 |
6. Buffalo Bills | 6 |
7. Detroit Lions | 12 |
8. Houston Texans | 13 |
9. Chicago Bears | 7 |
10. San Francisco 49ers | 11 |
11. Los Angeles Chargers | 15 |
12. Philadelphia Eagles | 9 |
13. Dallas Cowboys | 8 |
14. Indianapolis Colts | 10 |
15. Kansas City Chiefs | 14 |
16. Carolina Panthers | 17 |
17. Jacksonville Jaguars | 19 |
18. Baltimore Ravens | 16 |
19. Pittsburgh Steelers | 22 |
20. Miami Dolphins | 20 |
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 18 |
22. Cincinnati Bengals | 21 |
23. Minnesota Vikings | 29 |
24. New York Giants | 24 |
25. New Orleans Saints | 30 |
26. Arizona Cardinals | 23 |
27. Washington Commanders | 26 |
28. Tennessee Titans | 31 |
29. Cleveland Browns | 27 |
30. Atlanta Falcons | 25 |
31. New York Jets | 28 |
32. Las Vegas Raiders | 32 |
Contenders that I actually trust
Los Angeles Rams
My stance on the Rams simply isn't changing. This has looked like the best team in the NFL for months and, aside from the stunning loss to Carolina, I haven't seen anything to make me feel differently. After all, this is a team that is fourth in both Offensive and Defensive EPA per Play this season.
With Sean McVay being who he is and Matthew Stafford continuing to perform like an MVP, there isn't an aspect of this Rams team that I don't trust. As will be the case moving forward, that guarantees nothing — but it does raise the confidence as you look to the playoffs.
New England Patriots
You can call me Charlie Brown and the Patriots are Lucy holding the football, but I don't care. For one, I remain a staunch believer in Drake Maye with the leap he's made this season, and he has proven more than capable enough to carry this team. But the defense has also quietly been Top 10 in EPA per Play allowed this season. Some of that has to do with level of comp, sure, but the Patriots have checked boxes routinely. While their lack of experience and depth is a concern, I'm at the point now where you simply have to just accept that New England is legitimate, even if that doesn't result in a return to Super Bowl glory.
Seattle Seahawks
Though the NFC West love-fest was interrupted by the Patriots, I don't feel all that dissimilarly about the Seahawks than I do about the Rams. Seattle has that same elite balance that I'm looking for, ranking second in EPA allowed per Play and 12th in Offensive EPA per Play (they're ninth in Offensive Success Rate).
I do have the Seahawks a tick below the Rams on the whole, simply because I'd be foolish to not trust Matthew Stafford more than Sam Darnold at this point. But Seattle has all of the pieces and the strong coaching staff that is going to make them difficult to beat in any given week. They're well-built enough to be able to win in multiple ways, which is always dangerous in the postseason.
Houston Texans
This one might be against my better judgment, but I'm starting to believe in the Texans. Overall on the season, we know that this defense has been one of the best in the NFL, but the offense has been trailing behind. And the overall offensive numbers haven't been saved of late, as Houston ranks just 19th in EPA per Play.
Of late, however, the Texans have gotten C.J. Stroud back while remedying their previous offensive line issues. I'm not saying they're a world-beater offensively, but this defense looks reliable enough that the offense won't be tasked with carrying this team.
Green Bay Packers
On the flip side of the Texans, we have the Packers. After beating Chicago in Week 14, Jordan Love and the Green Bay attack rank first in EPA per Play this season, with Love clearly taking a step forward and Josh Jacobs continuing to be a workhorse for the run game.
But while Micah Parsons has been everything they'd hoped for, the Packers defense on the whole has still been average by the numbers, ranking 14th in EPA allowed per Play and 13th in Defensive Success Rate. I still think they have enough playmaking on that side of the ball, however, that they can ride their offense deep into the playoffs.
Pretenders that don't deserve your trust
Philadelphia Eagles
In what world would you trust the Eagles right now? The Monday night loss to the Chargers is just indicative of what we've seen for weeks with the defending Super Bowl champions. The defense is still quite good, ranking ninth in EPA allowed per Play, but the offense has fallen off a cliff, ranking 17th in EPA per Play and seemingly getting worse.
You can blame a less stellar season from Saquon Barkley or whatever else, but the issues can be boiled down to the offensive line being lesser than it has been in previous years, and teams now forcing Jalen Hurts to do more and the QB coming up short. Whatever the culprit, though, Philadelphia is certainly not a team worth trusting right now.
Buffalo Bills
You'd be right to say that everyone should fear Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. The Bills rank second in the NFL in EPA per Play and third in Success Rate. And while I am somewhat dubious of the pass-catchers, the rushing attack combined with Allen's superhuman ability is hard to argue with.
However, the issue with the Bills has been the defense for me over most of the year. They rank just 17th in EPA allowed per Play, and we've seen even in wins that Buffalo has a propensity to get into shootouts. That puts entirely too much pressure on the offense for me to believe that the postseason tides are suddenly going to turn for this franchise.
Denver Broncos
Again somewhat flip-flopping in regard to narratives, the Broncos are the antithesis of the Bills. Denver's defense has been elite for much of the season, ranking seventh in EPA allowed per Play and second in Defensive Success Rate. That actually does show a slight decline, but this is still quite clearly a ferocious side of the ball.
Bo Nix and the offense, on the other hand, have been less scary. While they rank 10th in EPA per Play, they are 19th in Success Rate. This offense has been stop-and-go for much of the season and, with an overall lack of playoff experience on top of that, I'm just not sure they're a bankable NFL commodity right now. They've proven me wrong all season, to be sure, and could do so again — but I'd rather get burned not believing than the alternative.
Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears
We're combining these two NFC North foes together because, well, it feels like they need to be. And really, it comes down to the same thing for both teams in that I don't believe that either defense is good enough to call the Lions or the Bears a Super Bowl contender (and for Chicago, the offense is a bit at fault, too).
At times, we've seen what both offenses are capable of at their respective peaks. At the same time, Chicago's defense has been pedestrian for most of the season. And while the Lions have had a better effort overall, their lack of pass rush has been a concern in the biggest of games. Those issues aren't going away against postseason competition, and it feels like Detroit has regressed from being a contender, while the Bears might still be a step away.