Despite being just 14 weeks into the NFL season, Sunday's loss to the Houston Texans ensured that the Kansas City Chiefs will finish the 2025 regular season with the worst record in the Patrick Mahomes era. To make matters worse, at 6-7, their odds of making it to the playoffs are incredibly slim. NextGen Stats give the Chiefs just a 15 percent chance to make it to the playoffs with four games to go, and even that feels a touch high.
For the Chiefs to make it to the playoffs, they're going to have to play their best football while also getting some help from the teams they're chasing. Needing both of those things to happen is why it feels like such a long shot that the Chiefs get in. Still, they aren't dead yet, so let's go over the improbable ways they can still get in.
Chiefs make the playoffs by running the table IF:
The Chiefs would give themselves the best shot of getting into the playoffs, obviously, by running the table, winning each of their last four regular season games. That would give themselves a record of 10-7. With that being said, running the table isn't all the Chiefs would have to do. They'd need these things to happen as well.
Colts go 2-2 or worse
The Chiefs would need the 8-6 Indianapolis Colts to play .500 football or worse to end the year. As heartbreaking as Daniel Jones' season-ending injury was from an unbiased point of view, it does boost their odds of stumbling to the finish line, therefore helping the Chiefs steal a Wild Card spot. Here's the Colts' upcoming schedule.
Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
15 | at Seahawks |
16 | vs. 49ers |
17 | vs. Jaguars |
18 | at Texans |
The Colts have as hard a schedule as any team to finish out the year. Each of their four remaining games is against teams in or right on the outskirts of a playoff spot, and their final two games are against teams they've already lost to this season, with Jones factoring in (although he left the Jacksonville game early with his injury).
They were a very fun story to begin the year, but with Jones out for the year, it feels very unrealistic to expect them to go 3-1 or better against this gauntlet, keeping the door slightly open for Kansas City.
Chargers go 2-3 or worse
The Colts aren't the only team that the Chiefs have to catch, though. The Los Angeles Chargers are also an eight-win team, and with a win against the Chiefs already in hand this season, Kansas City will need even more luck to leapfrog Los Angeles. With that in mind, here's the Chargers' schedule to finish out the regular season.
Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
14 | vs. Eagles |
15 | at Chiefs |
16 | at Cowboys |
17 | vs. Texans |
18 | at Broncos |
Much like the Colts, this schedule is far from a cakewalk. The Chargers do not face a single team under .500 the rest of the way other than the Chiefs, and three of the five games are against teams in a playoff spot. The likelihood that the Denver Broncos will have nothing to play for in Week 18, though, might come back to bite Kansas City, though.
Still, a 2-3 record for Los Angeles is entirely possible with this schedule, especially assuming the Chiefs take care of business against their division rivals at home.
Chiefs make the playoffs by going 3-1 IF:
Running the table would make it more probable that the Chiefs make it to the playoffs, but it isn't their only way in. They can still get in by going 3-1, but they would need a ton of luck.
Colts go 1-3 or worse
The Chiefs would finish with a 9-8 record if they go 3-1, so they'd need the Colts to finish 9-8 or worse to get into the playoffs over them. The Chiefs beat the Colts this season, which is why they own the tiebreaker.
As unlikely as it might seem on the surface, it's entirely possible that this happens. Again, Jones is out for the year, and Indianapolis' schedule is very difficult. It might even be more surprising to see the Colts play .500 football or better to finish out the year with their injury situation, which helps the Chiefs immensely.
Chargers go 0-5
This, though, is far more unlikely. The Chargers also have a gauntlet of a schedule, but they're in a much better spot health-wise, and have five games to go instead of four. Expecting the Chargers to not win a single game the rest of the way feels like wishful thinking.
It is helpful, though, that one of the Chargers' games are against the Chiefs. Kansas City doesn't entirely control its own destiny, but if the Chargers lose to the Eagles and then to the Chiefs, suddenly, the pressure is on Los Angeles to turn its season around quickly.
Going 0-5 seems impossible, but hey, crazier things have happened, right?
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