This might be the most important week of NFL action yet. A total of 10 teams have the potential for huge changes in their playoff odds based on what happens this week. At least, that's what the playoff probability chart from X/Twitter user @mrcaseb shows. The chart, which is based on 50,000 simulations of the remainder of the NFL season, finds a number of keys with wild swings in playoff odds based on what happens on Sunday.
No, we won't have a clear idea of which teams will be playoff teams after this week. There's still plenty of football left to be played before we can have those answers. What we will have, though, is a clearer sense of what each team on the playoff bubble needs to do to get to the postseason. Here are 10 teams facing huge games in Week 12 that will greatly swing their playoff hopes.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have had a standing reservation for the Super Bowl for the past half-decade, but a loss on Sunday to the Colts would put the team in a hole that's not insurmountable, but it would be pretty deep.
A win over the Colts means the Chiefs' chances of making the postseason jump to 68 percent — not a guarantee, but it's still solid ground for the team to be on. A loss, though, drops that number to 35 percent and really solidifies this weird reshaping of the AFC.
Houston Texans
The Texans have already played this week, with the team upsetting the Buffalo Bills on Thursday. A loss would have spelled doom for Houston, dropping it to just 18 percent odds to make the postseason.
The win improved those chances to 46 percent. The C.J. Stroud concussion could have killed this team, but Houston went 3-0 with Davis Mills under center and now is on the best ground it's been on in 2025.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers is questionable with a wrist injury for Sunday's game, but the Steelers probably need him to suit up. The team sits at 6-4 on the year entering this meeting with the Bears, but still has to face the Lions and Bills once and the Ravens twice.
There's a lot of potential defeats left, which is part of why this game is so important. The team will be favored to make the postseason with a win, but drop down to just a 37 percent chance with a loss.
Chicago Bears
On the other side of that contest are the Bears, who are currently 7-3 in a tough NFC North. A win would put the team at 8-3, giving it wiggle room before consecutive road meetings with the Eagles and Packers. Chicago's playoff chances improve to 71 percent with a victory, but drop down to 45 percent with a loss.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens started this season off poorly, going 1-5 before the bye week. But Baltimore has now won four in a row to get back to .500 ahead of what should be an easily winnable game against the Jets.
With a win, the Ravens improve their playoff odds slightly to 71 percent, but a loss would drop the odds to 47 percent. In a tough race for the AFC North lead, this is the kind of game where a loss would be a complete disaster for this franchise.
Detroit Lions
The idea of the Lions missing the playoffs after going 5-2 before the bye seemed improbable, but a 1-2 mark since the bye has made for a tougher path. The good news is that this week begins a three-game home stand for the Lions and it comes against a really bad Giants team.
Get this win like expected and the Lions have an 80 percent shot of making the playoffs, but an upset loss drops things to close to 50-50.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers' situation looks a lot like the Lions' situation. Green Bay was 5-1-1 before losing two in a row, putting it in a spot where a Week 12 win over the Vikings leaves the team in very good shape, and an upset loss puts the team right on the bubble.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is holding on to an AFC Wild Card spot at the moment thanks to a big win last week over the Chargers, but with a host of more experienced teams right behind it, things could get dicey soon.
Luckily for the Jaguars, the team has two very winnable games up next, including this week's road game against the Cardinals. Winning this game gives the team about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs, but a loss drops the team's chances below 50 percent.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina's playoff chances are basically dead if the team loses on the road to the 49ers this week. The team would be 6-6 with the Rams, Seahawks and two meetings with the Buccaneers left on the docket.
Carolina will be underdogs in all of those games and will need some upset wins regardless of the outcome of this one, but the team would be on more solid ground with a victory over a 49ers team that's shown some defensive issues lately.
San Francisco 49ers
On the other side of Carolina-San Francisco are the 49ers, who sit at 7-4 on the year. A win to move to 8-4 would be huge, giving the team an 89 percent chance of making the playoffs. A loss, though, complicates things, as those chances drop to 62 percent.
That's not the end of the world — no other team in this article would have as high of a playoff chance with a loss — but it's still a pretty big swing.