We're almost to Thanksgiving, which means we've reached the home stretch of the NFL regular season. And in this year of parity — where the playoff picture in both conferences is as crowded as it's been in recent memory — one win or one loss can make the difference between playing January football and an early vacation.
Nowhere is it more true than Kansas City, where the Chiefs welcome the 8-2 Colts to town in a game that could make or break their season — and this dynastic run under Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. If that sounds like hyperbole, we've got the numbers to prove it.
-- WEEK 12 #NFL 🏈 Playoff Leverage --
— Sebastian (@mrcaseb) November 19, 2025
Here you can see how the playoff probability of each team changes depending on whether they win or lose the next game. pic.twitter.com/GkIcQvYu8V
Chiefs have more at stake than anyone on a showdown Sunday around the NFL
If Kansas City comes away with a win, their odds of a playoff spot jump all the way to 68%. Catching the Broncos in the AFC West is likely a pipe dream after their loss in Denver last week, but at 6-5, the Chiefs would keep pace with the four-loss teams ahead of them in the AFC Wild Card chase — with a friendly closing schedule that features matchups against the Cowboys, Texans, Titans and Raiders in addition to home dates against the Chargers and Broncos.
Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
12 | vs. Colts |
13 | at Cowboys |
14 | vs. Texans |
15 | vs. Chargers |
16 | at Titans |
17 | vs. Broncos |
18 | at Raiders |
Beat Indy this Sunday, and a 10-7 finish feels like the median outcome — which should be enough to get into the dance, given the inconsistencies we've seen from the Chargers, Jags and Texans to date.
Lose, though, and suddenly Kansas City faces a steep uphill climb to get back to the postseason for an 11th consecutive year. They'd be sitting at 5-6 with six games remaining, and their playoff odds would drop all the way down to 35%. They'd still have the chance to play two of the teams in front of them in the standings in Houston and L.A., and a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans would help, but they'd need to go 4-2 down the stretch just to give themselves a puncher's chance at 9-8. Even then, it would likely require a collapse from the Jags, while the 5-5 Baltimore Ravens are breathing down their necks.
That's a situation that the three-time reigning AFC champs would love to avoid. But it'll be easier said than done against a Colts offense that has given the entire league fits this season.
How Kansas City can boost their playoff hopes with a win over the Colts
Shane Steichen vs. Steve Spagnuolo. Andy Reid vs. Lou Anarumo. Daniel Jones against his inner demons. This game has a little bit of everything, including stars on both sides of the ball.
What can Kansas City do to ensure they win what sure looks like a must-win game? As always, beating the Colts starts with slowing down star running back Jonathan Taylor and the NFL's most devastating rushing attack. Luckily, Spagnuolo knows a thing or two about how to take away a team's biggest strength, and the Chiefs defense has been sturdier against the run this season than the pass.
It wouldn't surprise me if Spagnuolo tries to get aggressive, looking to neutralize Taylor and put the game in Jones' hands. The problem there is that Kansas City has not been able to turn up the heat on opposing QBs nearly as well this season as they did last year, despite Spags' well-earned reputation as a blitz doctor. Can the Chiefs make Jones as uncomfortable as he's looked over the last couple of weeks, and maybe force a couple turnovers to boot? Can K.C. finally figure out a way to run the ball against a vulnerable Indy defense? Their season, and their dynasty, may ride on the answers.