Even in a normal season, the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs can be an absolute bear to decipher. Yes, we have 17-game sample sizes for all 12 teams in action (and the two No. 1 seeds on the bye as well, of course). At the same time, the playoffs are a different beast altogether, and there's nothing like a win-or-go-home Wild Card game that can change your opinion about a team on a dime. But we have to do the best with what we've got and what we know to make our NFL Playoff predictions and picks for this week.
There's reason to be excited about this particular Wild Card weekend, too. The Los Angeles Rams are heavy favorites over the Carolina Panthers, but there isn't another spread in the other five games more than 4.5 points. Whether you're talking Packers-Bears, Chargers-Patriots, Bills-Jaguars, or any of these other games, they look close to call as the postseason gets underway. We're going to call them nonetheless, though, with our NFL picks for the first round of the playoffs, as we make predictions straight-up and against the spread for every Wild Card game.
NFL Playoff predictions: Wild Card Round picks straight-up and ATS
NFL Wild Card Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Rams at Panthers (Sat.) | Rams | Rams -10.5 |
Packers at Bears (Sat.) | Bears | Bears +1.5 |
Bills at Jaguars (Sun.) | Jaguars | Jaguars +1.5 |
49ers at Eagles (Sun.) | 49ers | 49ers +4.5 |
Chargers at Patriots (Sun.) | Patriots | Patriots -3.5 |
Texans at Steelers (Mon.) | Texans | Texans -3 |
2025-26 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 161-111 (Last Week: 10-6 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 127-142-3 (Last Week: 9-7 | 2024 record 147-118-1)
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
It's only six games, but man, this is a fun one for Wild Card weekend. First off, shouts out to the Houston Texans for not playing in the early Saturday window, as has been tradition. But now, they're the bookend on the other side in a fun one against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. We also get the 49ers and Eagles in a battle of fun but imperfect teams, the Patriots and Chargers in a battle of teams that might need to prove it, and even Rams-Panthers to start us off just feels like it could be weird and wild.
The first headliner, though, have to be the Packers and Bears meeting for a third time this season in a rivalry matchup now with the stakes of the playoffs. Then we also get a fascinating matchup between the Bills and Jaguars. Buffalo and Josh Allen have been here before time and again, but the Jaguars are new blood — yet, if Jacksonville had a different logo on the helmet, people would believe in them far more.
Toughest NFL Wild Card weekend predictions to make
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (+1.5)
While I fully understand that the Packers' loss out of the two regular-season games against the rival Bears came in a barn-burner with Malik Willis at quarterback (and they needed overtime), let's actually look at where Green Bay sits coming into this game.
Jordan Love should be back for this one, but he'll come back likely with some rust after not seeing the field with a concussion for a few weeks at this point. Furthermore, the Packers defense has dropped off dramatically since Micah Parsons' injury, which stands to reason. Oh, and the simplest of them all, Green Bay comes into the playoffs after four straight losses to end the regular season.
The Bears aren't perfect, and I'll continue to believe that their defense is still quite susceptible. It just feels like an uphill climb for the Packers to reach anything close to their ceiling right now with the state of affairs on the roster. And then when you put this game at Soldier Field, I'm going to take the Bears outright as the home underdog.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
I mentioned it already, but if the Jaguars wore just a blank helmet and Trevor Lawrence cut his hair to be unrecognizable, would we trust this team a bit more than we do? This isn't a fluke. In the first year under Liam Coen, this team won the AFC South with a 13-win season, and has been absolutely firing on all cylinders for months. They also get to stay home for the Wild Card Round and avoid having to go play in the cold of Buffalo, or anywhere else.
Beyond that, though, this feels like a uniquely bad matchup for the Bills. Yes, Josh Allen is going to pull out his heroics, and I don't expect Buffalo to be stifled on offense. It's also impossible to trust the Bills defense at this point, though, and that's amplified when it's an offensive guru in Coen who gets to attack the weakest unit for Buffalo.
This one has the trappings of a shootout, but if I simply look at the teams that we're talking about here, I wildly trust the Jaguars more in this matchup. They're also a home dog, but I'm taking Jacksonville with the margins between these two so thin.
Easiest NFL Wild Card Round picks on the board
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
Even though Panthers fans probably aren't feeling the most boisterous about this team after back-dooring their way into the playoff field with a sub-.500 record, there has to be a feeling of disrespect for this line to some degree. Not only is Carolina the only underdog of more than a touchdown, but they're a 10.5-point underdog to a team that they already beat in Charlotte once this season, 31-28.
Frankly, I don't care. The Rams are still the far superior team. Los Angeles has battled bouts of inconsistency at times this season, but I'd also argue that they have the highest ceiling of any team in the entire playoff field. Furthermore, Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford lead a group that has been here before. Their postseason experience at the top also might be unmatched in the postseason field, but especially against this Carolina team.
Make no mistake, this large of a line in the playoffs is always going to be a bit scary — but the line is also justified with how much better the Rams are than the Panthers.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-3.5)
There is going to be a plethora of people ready to fade the Patriots in the postseason. Cries about their weak schedule have been echoing throughout the season, and now is the time when you would expect that to come to a head — especially with Drake Maye's first taste of the playoffs, and going up against an experienced Chargers team.
Are we sure Los Angeles can do anything about that, though? The Chargers are actually who many people think the Jaguars are. They are the team that deserves to be looked at with questioning eyes, given the breadth of their offensive line injuries, and really just their injuries at large. It's a testament to Justin Herbert's ability, but that also doesn't seem like a viable path to playoff success.
More importantly, we just need to accept the Patriots are an extremely good team that happened to have an easy schedule. Both things can be true. And as for the inexperience, Mike Vrabel isn't in that category, and I suspect the coaching bleeds through the roster and pushes New England to a decisive win.