The Pittsburgh Steelers outlasted the rival Baltimore Ravens in a heated duel on Sunday Night Football, and now we have 14 teams heading for the NFL Playoffs. Of course, that also means more than half of the league in 18 teams are already thinking about NFL free agency and the NFL Draft. But we're eyeing the postseason right now. More specifically, we're honing in our NFL Power Rankings on the teams in the playoffs and how they stack up against one another.
We won't get the whole story with that, however. While these teams may stack up accordingly based on the regular season, the NFL Playoffs are a different beast. The games change, the stakes are raised, and even a good regular season may not translate to the postseason. So while we deliver our playoff NFL Power Rankings, we'll also have our confidence meter in all 14 teams with how we feel about their chances in the postseason.
14. Carolina Panthers
- Record: 8-9
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: NFC No. 4 Seed (vs. 5 Los Angeles Rams)
Confidence Meter: 1/10 — Not a chance in hell
So, if we're checking off the ledger when it comes to the Panthers, this is a team that lost a win-and-in matchup with the Bucs in Week 18, finished below .500 for the regular season, has arguably the worst quarterback in the playoff field in Bryce Young, and has never been to the postseason with this current group. What could go wrong?
It's impossible to feel a breadth of confidence in this team, largely because of how wildly inconsistent they've been to this point. A team's record doesn't always tell the entire story, but in the Panthers' case, it absolutely does. This defense still isn't at a contention caliber, while the offense has been one of the most hot-and-cold units in the league all year long.
Perhaps the only thing in Carolina's favor is getting their Wild Card Round matchup at home — but the matchup with the Rams almost entirely negates that.
13. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Record: 10-7
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: AFC No. 4 Seed (vs. 5 Houston Texans)
Confidence Meter: 4/10 — You can talk me into it
It felt so obvious — the Steelers in Week 18 with a win-or-go-home matchup against the Ravens felt like the most obvious and depressing way that Mike Tomlin could once again finish 9-8. But lo and behold, they got it done with a victory. Granted, they needed a Ravens missed field goal to get to that spot, but they still were in position to benefit from a miscue. And with that monkey off their back, there's a world where momentum might simply be on Pittsburgh's side heading into the playoffs.
Aaron Rodgers may not be the MVP-caliber quarterback he once was, but his experience is second-to-none in this playoff field. Moreover, while it might not be the sexiest brand of football or even one that's unanimously successful, the Steelers have an identity. And more than that, this defense still has upside. I'm certainly not going to predict a Pittsburgh run in the postseason, but given where they're at coming into the affair, it also wouldn't be the most surprising outcome.
12. Green Bay Packers
- Record: 9-7-1
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: NFC No. 7 Seed (at 2 Chicago Bears)
Confidence Meter: 3/10 — The signs aren't great
Losing the final four games of the regular season is exactly what you want coming into the playoffs, right? It wasn't a fun finishing stretch for the Lambeau faithful, as the Packers have been ravaged by injuries. Though Jordan Love should be good to go for the playoff matchup against the rival Bears, the more pressing absence remains that of Micah Parsons. Since he went down with a torn ACL, the Green Bay defense just quite simply hasn't been remotely the same.
Perhaps the thing that makes me feel as uneasy as all of that, though, is the matchup with the Bears. That's not to say I believe Chicago is the substantially better team, but having to go on the road to a hostile environment against an opponent (and Ben Johnson) who is intensely familiar with the Packers is the exact opposite of an advantage. And when you throw the weakened defense into that, it's hard to love Green Bay's position entering the postseason.
11. Los Angeles Chargers
- Record: 11-6
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: AFC No. 7 Seed (at 2 New England Patriots)
Confidence Meter: 2/10 — Justin Herbert can't do everything, can he?
It's felt like we've collectively been burying the Chargers for a month or more at this point, yet they pretty comfortably made it into the playoffs and won 11 games this year. Frankly, much of that is a testament to Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh. Unfortunately, it might be where the good vibes end.
Yes, Los Angeles has more playoff experience than their Wild Card Round opponent, the Patriots. At the same time, the Chargers are also depleted on the offensive line, on the defense, and really just overall in general. It's felt like Herbert has been pulling the rabbit out of his hat time and again this season. And as good as the quarterback is and has been, that's not normally a recipe for success in the postseason.
Maybe the Chargers pull off an upset in the Wild Card game. I'm dubious of even that, but I'm quite certain that the current state of this roster means that a deep playoff run just isn't in the cards.
10. Chicago Bears
- Record: 11-6
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: NFC No. 2 Seed (vs. 7 Green Bay Packers)
Confidence Meter: 4/10 — Might still be a year away
Again, I like the Bears' chances when it comes to the Wild Card Round showdown with the rival Packers. But really, it's hard for me to go too far beyond that and feel totally great, which is a bit wild to say about the No. 2 seed in the conference. At the same time, it's all for good reason. My read on Chicago for most of the season has been that they are quite good and the improvement under Ben Johnson has been notable — they just might still be a year away from Super Bowl contention.
Specifically, that comes down to the defense for me. The primetime loss a couple of weeks ago to the 49ers stands out majorly. Caleb Williams and the Bears offense were on point, and consistently delivered counter-punch after counter-punch. The problem was that they had to keep counter-punching, because the defense simply had no answers for Brock Purdy and Company. That feels like it will end up as the Achilles heel for Chicago and send them home from the postseasn at some point.
9. Philadelphia Eagles
- Record: 11-6
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: NFC No. 3 Seed (vs. 6 San Francisco 49ers)
Confidence Meter: 5/10 — Vibes could be better, but it is the Eagles
Has there ever been an 11-win team that has worse public vibes than what the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles have right now? There's been apparent turmoil in the locker room for the majority of the regular season, the performances have been wildly inconsistent throughout the year, and it's completely fair to point out that one of the biggest strengths of the championship team, the offensive line, has taken a notable step back this year.
At the same time, this isn't untrodden territory in any capacity for Philadelphia. Nick Sirianni, though imperfect, has made an art out of this high-wire act in the locker room, always teetering on the brink of disaster but never quite falling over the edge. Furthermore, the playoff experience for the majority of this group, particularly the biggest contributors, is obvious. Because of that, I can't count the Eagles out. Given the tumultuous season, though, an early exit wouldn't shock me either.
8. Buffalo Bills
- Record: 12-5
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: AFC No. 6 Seed (at 3 Jacksonville Jaguars)
Confidence Meter: 4/10 — Don't like it, but also Josh Allen
No team causes me quite the same level of confusion in the way that the Bills do. There isn't a single time that I'm going to trust the run defense, which has been truly awful, and I don't feel great about the pass defense either. When you now put that in a road game against Liam Coen with what he and the Jags have been showing, I don't particularly like how that specific matchup stacks up for Buffalo as they have a seemingly wide-open path in the AFC.
The other side of the coin, though, is that this offense is still elite — and it still has Josh Allen at the helm. That's why this is a 12-win team, and it could ultimately be the trump card when it comes to the playoffs as well. The imbalance of this roster and team leaves me somewhere in the middle in terms of my confidence in their Super Bowl and postseason viability, but I'll never count out Josh Allen until the ref has 10 fingers up and the bell sounds.
7. San Francisco 49ers
- Record: 12-5
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: NFC No. 6 Seed (at 3 Philadelphia Eagles)
Confidence Meter: 5/10 — Worrisome against a good defense
Prior to the Week 18 loss to the Seahawks that clinched the No. 1 seed for Seattle and relegated the 49ers to a Wild Card spot, you could've made the argument that no team in the NFL was as hot as San Francisco. That's why the loss to their division rival hurts their case, however.
When you look at this run for the Niners, they faced four non-playoff teams that were largely reeling, and then a bottom-third defense in Chicago. But when they came up against quite literally one of the best defenses in the NFL in Seattle, they managed only three points and lost a rockfight quite handily.
The 49ers have weathered an array of injuries this season, and have persevered nonetheless. Yet, when you start to consider how they stack up against the best playoff teams in the field, it's not unreasonable to be worried about if they can catch fire in the same way they did against just simply inferior competition.
6. Houston Texans
- Record: 12-5
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: AFC No. 5 Seed (at 4 Pittsburgh Steelers)
Confidence Meter: 7/10 — Doubt them at your own peril
Nothing about the Houston Texans is going to win any style points awards. It's not always the prettiest brand of football, particularly with C.J. Stroud and the offense. And yet, the one thing that the Texans unequivocally have going for them is that they know exactly who they are. More importantly, that identity is built around one of the best units in the entire postseason field, the Houston defense.
DeMeco Ryans has everything clicking at full throttle on the defensive side of the ball. More importantly, it feels as though much of the offense has followed suit in that they're going to take advantage of opportunities afforded to them by the defense, while not necessarily blowing the doors off just so they aren't making back-breaking mistakes that hinder the Texans' biggest strength. Again, it's not going to be the most fun thing to watch, but that doesn't mean it can't and won't be successful.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Record: 13-4
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: AFC No. 3 Seed (vs. 6 Buffalo Bills)
Confidence Meter: 5/10 — Still not sure how we ended up here
There's an alternate reality in which Trevor Lawrence is a legitimate choice for NFL MVP this season, and Liam Coen is already a viable Coach of the Year candidate. Yet, as I continue to look at the pieces of the Jaguars roster, I'm still somewhat stunned at their final record. I can't be the only one left wondering how this team won 13 games this season.
But there's something in that you simply have to trust. Coen has his finger on the pulse of his roster in a tangible way that's producing results. It feels like Lawrence and the offense are putting up 30+ points every week right now. And the defense, while not considered a world-beater by any measure, is more than doing its job. There's a real reason to think that Jacksonville is extra frisky in the playoffs, but there's also enough apparent holes on the roster (even if they've been overcome throughout the season) to wonder if they over-achieved in the regular season.
4. Los Angeles Rams
- Record: 12-5
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: NFC No. 5 Seed (at 4 Carolina Panthers)
Confidence Meter: 8/10 — Not their first rodeo
If you forced me to pick a Super Bowl champion right now, I'd probably still take the Los Angeles Rams to be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy when this postseason is said and done. Yes, they ended up as the top Wild Card seed, but we've seen just how damn good this team has been throughout the entire season on both sides of the ball. Matthew Stafford is an MVP candidate, the defense has been lights out at times, and somehow that's only part of the reason of why I'm most confident in LA.
Put simply, when you look at the teams I trust the most in the playoff field based on what we saw in the regular season, Sean McVay, Stafford and the Rams are the group that I've seen make it through this gauntlet before. This might be the best team we've seen in Los Angeles top-to-bottom since they won the Super Bowl, and when you pair that with the postseason experience, things are set up quite nicely — especially in this specific playoff field — for the Rams to do damage.
3. Denver Broncos
- Record: 14-3
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: AFC No. 1 Seed (First-Round Bye)
Confidence Meter: 6/10 — Can they keep getting away with this?
How often this season have we watched Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos ultimately play with their food against obviously lesser opponents and pull out a win? How many times have they pulled out close games against good teams, too? That seems to just be the identity of Sean Payton's team at this point, and is certainly a byproduct of a defense that ranks first in Defensive Success Rate this season, which is the clear strength of this team.
With that being said, if I've been harsh on teams in terms of my confidence in them because of imbalance between the offense and defense, I have to be critical of the Broncos. Yes, having a trump card matters in the playoffs, but there also can't be a glaring weakness to win a Super Bowl, in my opinion. Denver's offense is only 17th in Offensive Success Rate this season, and we've seen it look quite stop-and-go too often for my liking.
This is still a very good football team, but I don't know if they're quite at the level they need to be to win a title just yet.
2. New England Patriots
- Record: 14-3
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: AFC No. 2 Seed (vs. 7 Los Angeles Chargers)
Confidence Meter: 6/10 — Inexperience, not the schedule, could be a problem
Speaking of teams that I'm not entirely sure are ready to win a title just yet, that's the exact bucket that the Patriots fall into as well for me. I know numerous people are going to cry foul at having any confidence in New England or having them No. 2 in the power rankings because they played an easy schedule. But they also navigated that schedule to the tune of a 14-win season, have the likely MVP in Drake Maye, and have a coach in Mike Vrabel who is no stranger to navigating the postseason now that they're here.
While that may be true, though, the playoff experience on this roster is paper thin. This will be Maye's first postseason taste, and the same is true for key contributors throughout the roster on both sides of the ball. Vrabel's presence can help to mitigate some of that, but he can't be on the field for this team in the bright lights. My gut tells me that eventually bites them before it's all said and done, but this is undeniably a Patriots team that should be taken seriously given what they're capable of.
1. Seattle Seahawks
- Record: 14-3
- Playoff Seed and Matchup: NFC No. 1 Seed (First-Round Bye)
Confidence Meter: 7/10 — Do we really trust Sam Darnold?
Man, I toiled over what to do with the Seahawks in terms of the confidence index. That starts with the fact that Seattle's defense under Mike Macdonald might, quite plainly, just be the best overall unit that we'll see in the playoffs. They've been suffocating against virtually every opponent on the schedule, including the statement win over the 49ers in Week 18.
At the same time, while I do think this offense has some playmakers with the backfield tandem, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and others, Sam Darnold is still the quarterback. More importantly, he's still the quarterback with a propensity for interceptions and some head-scratching mistakes. Oh, Darnold is also the same guy who won 14 games with the Vikings last season, and promptly blew up in the playoffs to force an early exit for Minnesota.
While I do believe that Darnold has used that as somewhat of a learning experience, the mistake-prone nature of the player still gives me hesitancy. I believe in the possibility of the Seahawks pulling off a Super Bowl 50-type run like the Broncos, but I still can't get all the way behind that just yet.