January is around the corner, meaning we've officially reached the portion of the NFL season when the runway gets short and you need to start playing your very best football. And yet, for far too many would-be contenders around the league, the exact opposite has been true — and remained true in Week 16.
Some teams escaped with (very) ugly wins. Others, like the Packers, very much did not. But no matter what the scoreboard says, the scoreboard only tells you so much this time of year. The only thing that really matters is whether you're looking like a Super Bowl threat or not, and we can't apply that term to the teams below.
Buffalo Bills
Sure, Buffalo technically won this weekend, but good luck trying to sell that to anyone in Western New York right now. The Browns dragged the Bills into the muck on Sunday, holding Josh Allen and Co. to just 259 yards, 2-for-8 on third down and just 24 minutes of possession. They forced two picks from Shedeur Sanders in order to escape with a 23-20 victory that keeps them breathing down New England's necks in the AFC East, but sweating so much against this Cleveland team hardly inspires confidence moving forward.
It's been all-too-tempting to look at the disintegration of Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson this season, look at the QBs Allen might have to face in an AFC playoff game, and think that this is finally the year the Bills get over the hump and back to the Super Bowl. But that simply doesn't match the reality of what we've seen from this team; Allen and the running game remain elite, but they lack real ball-winners on the outside, and this defense has bled yards too easily. There just aren't a ton of difference-makers who can swing a game if Allen is putting the team on his back.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers had the NFC North by the scruff of the neck. And then, over the course of a few minutes in the fourth quarter and overtime, they watched it disappear, turning a 16-6 lead into a shocking 22-16 loss to the rival Chicago Bears. To make matters worse, Jordan Love left the game and entered the concussion protocol after taking a huge hit in the first half.
Green Bay is still holding on to the No. 7 seed in the NFC bracket, and they may well keep it given how poorly the competition (namely the Lions and Bucs) are playing right now. But to say that the Pack aren't trending in the right direction is an understatement. Jeff Hafley's secondary has now gotten shredded two weeks in a row, and the lack of impact pass rush is apparent with Micah Parsons on the shelf. With the running game taking a step back as well amid O-line injuries, you're essentially putting the whole thing on Love's shoulders, which was a risky proposition even when he was healthy.
The entire NFC South
The Panthers are the leader in the clubhouse right now, after nipping the Bucs by a field goal in Carolina on Sunday afternoon. But even if Tampa wins the rematch in Week 18 and steals the division, neither of these teams look like anything for the heavyweights of the conference to be afraid of.
Carolina is a feel-good story under Dave Canales, to be sure. But this remains an undermanned defense, and for as good as Tetairoa McMillan is as a rookie wideout, Bryce Young isn't nearly consistent enough pushing the ball down the field to believe that he can win a playoff game (even one at home). This is just a pretty average roster all the way around right now.
The Bucs would, on paper at least, seem to be the more formidable of the two. The only problem is we've been saying that for weeks now, and the real Tampa Bay shows no signs of showing up any time soon. Baker Mayfield's accuracy has fallen off a cliff, whether that can be blamed on his shoulder injury or not. The secondary is leaking oil. At a certain point, you are who your record says you are, which means that whatever Wild Card team is lucky enough to finish in the No. 5 spot could catch a break.
Philadelphia Eagles
Maybe this is overly harsh to a team that had no problem dispatching the Washington Commanders on Saturday afternoon. Heck, Saquon Barkley even turned the clock back to 2024 this weekend, rolling for 132 yards and a score and finally getting the requisite room to rip off some chunk plays.
But I refuse to read too much into easy wins over a Vegas team that's barely functional at this point and a Commanders team that was down to Josh Johnson at QB by the second half on Saturday. As far as I'm concerned, this Philly team still has all the offensive (and, though to a lesser extent, defensive) problems that were the talk of the league just a few weeks ago, and they could rear their head at the worst possible time. It was only 13 days ago that we were melting down after five Jalen Hurts turnovers led to a loss against the Chargers, after all.