On Sunday, the NFL playoff picture will come into clearer focus. Four AFC teams have the ability to clinch berths in the postseason this weekend, though the scenarios to get there feature varying degrees of likelihood.
Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos, the only AFC team to have clinched a spot thanks to a great second season for Bo Nix, have a chance to clinch the AFC West or, potentially, the No. 1 seed itself. To get the AFC West crown, Denver has to take down a fellow playoff team and will need the Chargers to lose to a Cowboys team that's been inconsistent all year. Still, both definitely could happen. Denver is at home, and the Chargers might be one of the league's only pass defenses capable of really stopping Dak Prescott.
Denver could also clinch the No. 1 overall seed this weekend. The Broncos would need the two aforementioned scenarios to happen to clinch a playoff spot, plus would need the Patriots to lose on the road to Baltimore (possible!) and the Bills to lose on the road to Cleveland (possible, but not necessarily likely).
As for the four AFC teams that can clinch spots in the postseason, here's what they need to do this weekend. Want to know what NFC teams can clinch? We have you covered there as well.
Buffalo Bills
Beat the Browns, then get either a Texans loss to the Raiders OR a Colts loss to the 49ers
This is a fairly simple situation for the Bills, because two of these three things seem fairly likely to happen. The Bills should be able to earn a road victory against the Cleveland Browns. Shedeur Sanders has had a few good moments since taking over as the Browns starting quarterback, but you can't trust him against the Bills defense.
Houston shouldn't lose to the Raiders — though weirder things have happened — but the Philip Rivers-led Colts are probably going to struggle against the 49ers. Luckily for Rivers, the 49ers rank last in the NFL in sacks this season, so he won't just be a sitting duck back there, but can you really trust a 44-year-old quarterback making his second start since 2020?
Jacksonville Jaguars
Beat the Broncos, then get either a Texans loss to the Raiders or a Colts loss to the 49ers
The contingencies here are the same as they are for the Bills, but the likelihood that Jacksonville clinches is lower because, well...the Jags have to beat the Broncos, and all Buffalo has to do is beat the Browns.
Still, the fact that this Jaguars team can potentially clinch a playoff spot this early on is impressive. There were major questions about the future direction of this team coming into the season, but Jacksonville has proven that Liam Coen was the right coaching hire and that Trevor Lawrence is a quarterback you can win football games with, even if he hasn't quite lived up to his pre-NFL hype.
Los Angeles Chargers
Beat the Cowboys, then get either a Texans loss to the Raiders or a Colts loss to the 49ers
Oh look! The Chargers, like the other teams in contention here, are in with a win and a loss by either the Texans or Colts. Because the Bills, Chargers and Jaguars all play different teams, it's very possible that all three clinch this week, leaving only two playoff spots up for grabs: the No. 7 seed and the AFC North winner.
The Chargers' clinching would also be interesting here, because it would make Week 17 interesting. Los Angeles faces the Texans on Dec. 27, but how much motivation will the Chargers have to go all out in that one?
New England Patriots
Beat the Ravens, or a either a Texans loss to the Raiders or a Colts loss to the 49ers
Unlike the three teams above, the Patriots control their own destiny this weekend. Beat Baltimore, and nothing else matters.
But in case New England is unable to do that, the team also has the backup plan of a Texans or Colts loss. Basically, there are four teams whose playoff futures will be decided by Philip Rivers this weekend. Imagine telling anyone that before this season began.