Wild Card Weekend ended up with a whimper, as the Houston Texans defense snuffed out Aaron Rodgers in the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 30-6 laugher on Monday night. But that doesn't change the fact that this was a truly spectacular few days of football, befitting a Super Bowl chase that seems like it could be anybody's to win (or lose).
One look at the remaining field as we head to the Divisional Round makes that pretty clear. Just about every one of the eight teams still alive could well be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in a few weeks; and similarly, just about every one of them could also be going home in a few days' time without blinking an eye. That's just life in the NFL in 2025, when there are flaws and question marks everywhere.
So, who are we putting the most faith in ahead of this weekend? Trying to make sense of a race this wide-open is a fool's errand, but here goes nothing.
1. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have the advantage of not having played in a couple of weeks, but the last time we saw them, they were polishing off the No. 1 seed with their seventh win in a row — and five of those wins weren't particularly competitive. If this defense isn't the best individual unit left in the playoffs, it's darn close, and that floor makes Seattle pretty easy to trust; it's hard to imagine them not being at least competitive in any game they play.
Of course, you could say that about each of the teams below them on this list, too. But while the Seahawks aren't without their weaknesses, those weaknesses don't make me quite as nervous, so Seattle takes the top spot here.
2. Los Angeles Rams
Yes, I realize they just got taken to the limit by a Carolina Panthers team that went 8-9 in the regular season. I'm not writing that game off as a fluke — this undersized secondary is a liability, one that has been exposed before and could be again — but it does seem worth noting that it took a good amount of weirdness to prevent Los Angeles from putting it away early.
This is still the same Rams team that narrowly finished second to Seattle in DVOA this season, and they still have arguably the best coach in football with arguably the best receiver in football catching passes from the likely MVP. Again, if we're looking for things we can trust in a wide-open field, I trust this offense to score enough points to win most days. Really, they just need their defense to do enough.
3. Denver Broncos
I moved the Broncos around three or four different spots before eventually settling on a relatively bullish ranking. As one of our nation's foremost Bo Nix skeptics, I don't love that, and yet it's hard to deny the appeal of one of the league's best defenses supporting a Sean Payton offense.
Granted, we have no idea which version of that offense is going to show up any given week. And this defense, while admittedly great, hasn't been totally invincible of late. But Denver gets home field through the AFC playoffs, their defense offers a very high floor and they have an elite schemer in Payton who's proven he can solve problems at this time of year. A Divisional Round flameout wouldn't shock me, especially considering the QB they're up against, but I can't deny the appeal.
4. Houston Texans
If you watched Houston's defense methodically turn the Steelers into a fine paste on Monday night and came away thinking that they're a Super Bowl favorite, I can't really blame you. This unit really is that good, capable of taking over games all by themselves — and like Seattle, they pretty much guarantee that the Texans will be competitive no matter who they're facing or where.
But I do think we need to pump the brakes a little bit. Drawing 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and a Pittsburgh offense short on athleticism was pretty much the best-case scenario for a young, hungry team like Houston, and even then, this offense was dysfunctional enough to keep the Steelers hanging around for three quarters. I don't trust this offensive line, I don't trust this receiver room if Nico Collins can't go and if I'm being honest, I don't trust CJ Stroud to elevate the talent around him. The Texans can absolutely reach and win the Super Bowl, but they still have lots of questions to answer.
5. Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen deserves better. Heck, there's still a perfectly good chance he'll make me eat my words and carry this Bills roster all the way to a Super Bowl. But man ... did you see that beating he took in Jacksonville on Sunday afternoon? The interior of Buffalo's offensive line did him no favors, and when he did have time to operate, the lack of any real winners on the outside was acutely felt.
Combine that with a depleted defense that's been hanging on by a thread for weeks now, and how far can this team really go? With Allen at the helm, all things are possible, but even Superman has his limits. I won't push back too hard if you decide to bet on another Hall of Fame performance, but the margin for error is just so slim here.
6. Chicago Bears
Chicago will be up in arms about this, and I can understand why; with the way the back half of this Bears season has gone, it truly feels like Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams and operating with the mandate of heaven. And to be clear, I don't want to make out like this entire run has been nothing more than luck: This is a good, dangerous team, with an excellent head coach and a prodigiously talented quarterback throwing to a diverse group of weapons. They're not to be taken lightly.
All that said — I mean, they can't keep living like this forever, can they? Chicago's brilliance is dwarfed only by their inconsistency, the hallmark of a young team led by a quarterback prone to lapses in fundamentals and bouts of inaccuracy. For as high as their ceiling is offensively, they just make too many mistakes to trust, especially considering how thoroughly average this defense has looked all year. They can beat anybody left in the NFC bracket, but their floor is easily the lowest of this field.
7. New England Patriots
However you viewed the Patriots heading into Wild Card weekend is likely how you feel about them coming out of it. If you want to see the best team in the AFC, you can point to Drake Maye finding explosive plays and continuing to play well beyond his years and a suffocating defensive effort. If you want to see a mystery box that we still don't know much about, you can point to the state of L.A.'s offensive line, the travesty that is Greg Roman and the occasional bouts of sloppiness that kept this game somewhat competitive longer than was necessary.
Myself, I fall mostly into the latter camp. I'm still buying all the stock I can in Maye and Mike Vrabel moving forward, and again, a Super Bowl run from New England would not shock me. I just can't shake the feeling that this is a year too early, that there isn't quite enough impact talent around Maye to win two more playoff games. Sunday's win was just this team's third against playoff opponents this season, and one of those came against the below-.500 Panthers.
8. San Francisco 49ers
Fading Kyle Shanahan is never a recommended strategy, and yes, I did just watch this team go win a game in the defending champ's house despite losing their All-Pro tight end midway through. The Niners deserve all the credit in the world for bowing up rather than packing it in, and Shanahan remains arguably the best coach in football.
At a certain point, though, this team is going to run out of gas. It's inevitable: The injuries are just too significant, the defense too depleted. Robert Saleh is drawing blood from a stone right now, but the performance in Philly was largely just "we're going to force you to drive down the field and bet on you stubbing your toe first" — a strategy uniquely suited to a Kevin Patullo offense. I doubt that will work as well as the competition ratchets up; eventually, the talent deficiency on that side of the ball will become more apparent, and I don't think even Shanahan and Christian McCaffrey can come up with enough offense to compensate.