From here on out, the games matter the most. The NFL playoffs get underway this weekend with six Wild Card clashes, all with their own storylines and intrigue.
On a scale from one to 10, with 10 being the likeliest, here are the probabilities of each matchup ending in an upset. Odds are according to FanDuel Sportsbook and note that we're considering upsets based on odds, not by seed or homefield advantage.
No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 2 New England Patriots (-3.5): 6
Justin Herbert hasn’t appeared to be 100 percent as of late. He’s been dealing with an injury to his non-throwing hand that required surgery and, over his past nine games, he totaled 13 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The Bolts will rely on him to try to keep up with the AFC’s best scoring offense (28.8 points per game).
If Herbert rises to the occasion, the Chargers will have a shot.
No. 6 Buffalo Bills (-1.5) at No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars: 7
Trevor Lawrence passed for at least 250 yards in each of his past four outings. During that same span, he threw 11 touchdowns and just one pick. The former No. 1 overall pick operates the AFC’s third-best scoring offense (27.9 points per game).
A win over Josh Allen, almost unquestionably the most dangerous quarterback in the AFC side of the bracket, would signal a true arrival for Lawrence.
No. 5 Houston Texans (-3.5) at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers: 7
DeMeco Ryans' Texans sport the 22nd-best ground attack (108.9 yards per game) in the league. With Cam Heyward leading the run-stopping charge, the Steelers hardened as their do-or-die matchup with the Baltimore Ravens rolled on. Will Marks isn't quite Derrick Henry, who finished as the league's second-leading rusher, and Houston's run game as a whole doesn't size up to the Ravens' (No. 2 in the NFL, 156.6).
Not to mention, Mike Tomlin's side has star receiver DK Metcalf back in the fold. If Pittsburgh's defense doesn't have lapses, this one could be a textbook rock fight — and that might favor the home team.
No. 7 Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at No. 2 Chicago Bears: 8
The Bears required an unlikely rally to down their bitter rivals the last time these two teams met at Soldier Field, just over two weeks ago. Jordan Love suffered a concussion in that matchup, however, and will be back out there this time.
The Packers still won’t have Micah Parsons, though, and they’ve allowed the sixth-highest success rate on dropbacks (53.2%) since he went down. Green Bay only has two sacks since then, too, which bodes well for Caleb Williams.
No. 6 San Francisco 49ers at No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5): 5.5
If the 49ers get the Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey who showed up during their Week 18 outing, it's hard to imagine San Francisco having much of a chance. Sure, these Eagles aren't last year's version, but even with their own shortcomings, forcing those two to be ineffective would really damage the visitors' hopes.
The Niners' three points against the Seattle Seahawks were their fewest since 2017, which could suggest the struggles were a one-off. They’d better hope.
No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at No. 4 Carolina Panthers: 3
Dave Canales' Panthers snapped Los Angeles' six-game win streak at the same venue in late November. Powered by seasoned signal-caller Matthew Stafford, the Rams' offense is the most productive in the league in yards per game (394.6) and points per game (30.5).
Anyone in their right mind would choose Stafford over Bryce Young, for good reason.