Now roughly 58 percent of the way through the 2025 NFL regular season, the standings are beginning to take shape. Battle lines are drawn and it's clear which teams can realistically claim postseason contention — and which teams are shifting their focus to 2026 and beyond.
Offensive Success Rate is a simple but consequential metric meant to highlight the efficiency of an offense. It defines a "successful play" as one that gains 50-plus percent of the necessary yards to gain on first down, 70-plus percent of the necessary yards to gain on second down, and 100 percent of the necessary yards to gain on third or fourth down (h/t Action Network).
So, let's re-contextualize the NFL standings based on which teams average the highest quality of plays.
AFC East
Order | Team | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1 | Buffalo Bills | 48.5 |
2 | New England Patriots | 43.9 |
3 | New York Jets | 42.2 |
4 | Miami Dolphins | 40.3 |
No real surprise here. The Patriots lead the division with an 8-2 record, including 5-0 on the road, but Buffalo clearly has the best offense — or at least the most explosive and consistent offense — in the division.
Josh Allen continues to put up MVP caliber numbers week-in and week-out. Buffalo's loss to Miami this past Sunday was an unfortunate misstep, but Allen typically does the most with the least. His supporting cast pales in comparison to other superstar quarterbacks around the league, but when you're that athletic, with Allen's blend of velocity, accuracy and improved processing speed, positive things tend to happen. Allen's maturity now, compared to when he entered the NFL, is a remarkable showcase of growth.
All that said, Drake Maye is quite possibly a frontrunner (the frontrunner?) to win MVP right now. There's a bit of Josh Allen in there, ironically. Maye has the athleticism to extend plays and the arm talent to let it rip, although New England's offense is a bit more deliberate in its pacing, whereas Buffalo can go for the jugular on any given play.
AFC North
Order | Team | Success % |
|---|---|---|
T-1 | Baltimore Ravens | 44.5 |
T-1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 44.5 |
3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 42.4 |
4 | Cleveland Browns | 33.7 |
Not exactly a green flag for the Steelers, now losers of three of their last four. Aaron Rodgers and Arthur Smith's offense began the season putting up numbers — and doing so against qualify defenses. Unfortunately, in completely predictable fashion, Father Time has caught up to Rodgers. He's limited, especially when it comes to escaping pressure and delivering throws under duress. Rodgers is not the primary culprit for Pittsburgh's slide, but he's no longer good enough to elevate a team beyond its means. The Steelers' muted run game, flimsy receiver depth and patchwork O-line are problematic.
Baltimore and Cincinnati are in a dead tie for first here despite losing records. It seems like the Ravens are back on the winning path now that Lamar Jackson is healthy. The Bengals are more or less cooked. Joe Flacco can still captain an explosive offense, but Cincy's league-worst defensive metrics will continue to offset whatever marginal success the offense musters.
As for the last-place Browns — dead last in the entire NFL — it's probably time to start thinking about benching Dillon Gabriel. Past time, honestly.
AFC South
Order | Team | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1 | Indianapolis Colts | 50.8 |
2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 44.1 |
3 | Houston Texans | 41.5 |
4 | Tennessee Titans | 37.9 |
Coming into the season, expectations couldn't have been much lower for Daniel Jones and the Colts. Jones flamed out in spectacular fashion with the Giants and Indianapolis was coming off of an extremely uneven campaign, marred by their inability to develop Anthony Richardson into a serviceable starting quarterback.
The collective 'we' forgot just how good Shane Steichen is at his job. And even baseline competence at the quarterback position has vaulted Indianapolis to the top of the AFC standings, with the highest offensive success rate in the NFL, to boot. It helps when Jonathan Taylor is somehow one-upping Saquon Barkley's historic campaign from a year ago, vaulting himself firmly into the MVP conversation — rare territory for a non-QB.
The rest of the division lags significantly behind. Liam Coen is a brilliant play-caller, but the continued inconsistency of Trevor Lawrence seems destined to hold Jacksonville back from true contention. Houston, meanwhile, still can't seem to recapture the magic of CJ Stroud's rookie season, despite a talented receiver room and ample on-paper talent. It turns out Bobby Slowik wasn't the only problem.
AFC West
Order | Team | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 48.4 |
2 | Los Angeles Chargers | 45.5 |
3 | Denver Broncos | 41.1 |
4 | Las Vegas Raiders | 40.1 |
Shocking! Okay, not shocking. The Chiefs are in unfamiliar territory — they aren't running away with the division, and actually have a slight hole to dig out of — but this offense remains electric. Patrick Mahomes hasn't lost a step, still capable of the mystifying sleight of hand and the long-range bombs that define his illustrious career. If anything, Kansas City's once-vaunted defense is the point of concern. Chris Jones has underperformed all season and Steve Spagnuolo isn't running circles around his opponents like he was a year ago. The Chiefs are more vulnerable on the margins, with clear holes in the depth chart, but Mahomes remains an incredible offensive signpost.
The Broncos lead the division at 8-2 despite Bo Nix regressing meaningfully in his sophomore campaign. The Broncos are 13th in total offense per game and only 28th in success rate. Their red zone struggles are real. And yet, a top-shelf defense has paved the way for Denver to contend at the highest level.
As for the Chargers, it's impossible to count this group out. Justin Herbert has adopted a far more ambitious play style, one more befitting his immense talent. Still, Los Angeles only ranks around the middle of the pack here, relying on an elite defense so the offense can grind its way to victories.
NFC East
Order | Team | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1 | Washington Commanders | 46.3 |
2 | Dallas Cowboys | 46.2 |
3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 42.7 |
4 | New York Giants | 41.3 |
A mild surprise, as the Commanders offense has wobbled under the strain of Jayden Daniels' extended absence. Marcus Mariota has far exceeded expectations as the backup, for what it's worth, but the Commanders are lagging far behind their impressive output from last season. It's fair to pin their struggles primarily on an aging defensive core, but the Comms are 18th in total offense and 22nd in scoring. The Cowboys rank near the top of the league in both categories.
This is, in the end, a good example of the limitations of success rate as a stat. The Commanders generate more "successful" plays — generate more consistent positive yardage — but the explosive element that defined Daniels' rookie season just isn't there. Dak Prescott, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys, meanwhile, are far more inclined toward the big play. That has proven to be a successful recipe for Dallas, undermined by a porous defense.
The Eagles at No. 3 is also an interesting indicator of what precisely ails Philadelphia. The Eagles' defense is airtight, and it may just be good enough to support another Super Bowl run. But the run game has fallen off dramatically and Jalen Hurts can, at times, sacrifice ambition in favor of ball security, which leads to a sluggish offense reliant on grinding out drives and winning battles of attrition, rather than galloping out to huge leads.
NFC North
Order | Team | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1 | Green Bay Packers | 47.4 |
2 | Detroit Lions | 47.1 |
3 | Chicago Bears | 45.1 |
4 | Minnesota Vikings | 42.7 |
The Packers have scored 27-plus points in six of nine games this season, with a 5-0-1 record in those games. Green Bay has scored 13 points or fewer in each of its losses, including their 10-7 defeat at the hands of Philadelphia this past Monday. That was their second straight offensive dud and their second straight loss. So, while the overall numbers and indicators are positive, Green Bay's inconsistency (and current downturn) merits attention.
Green Bay barely outstrips Detroit in this specific category, but the Lions' offense is clearly more dependable. Detroit has not lost a step sans Ben Johnson, with major credit belonging to Jared Goff, an elite supporting cast, and Johnson's successor, John Morton. Detroit blends the run and pass as effectively and effortlessly as any team in the NFL. There isn't a more well-rounded, bulletproof offensive collective in the NFC.
That brings us to the bottom tier. Chicago is still puttering around the league average is most catch-all offensive stats. Caleb Williams has mostly found his footing, but Johnson has struggled to fully trust (and thus unleash) him the way he did with Goff in Detroit. That may take time. As for the Vikings, well... J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz are not Sam Darnold. That much we have learned.
NFC South
Order | Team | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1 | Carolina Panthers | 44.2 |
2 | Atlanta Falcons | 42.9 |
3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 42.1 |
4 | New Orleans Saints | 41.1 |
The Panthers are an unexpected leader here. At the risk of being reductive, the NFC South is probably the worst division in football. Atlanta isn't going anywhere until a new coach takes over. The Saints are in active tank mode. And that leaves the door open for Carolina to hang around. At 5-5, the Panthers are 1.5 games behind first-place Tampa Bay and very much on the right path. It's been a while since the Panthers were on the "right path."
Dave Canales and OC Brad Idzik deserve credit for making the most of their resources. Bryce Young has improved gradually over the last couple years, but he's not a real needle-mover under center. The Panthers' offense has instead captured lightning in a bottle with running back Rico Dowdle, whose 5.3 yards per carry puts him among the best in the NFL. Tet McMillan has given Young with a bonafide No. 1 wideout, elevating the passing attack just enough for the run game to flourish.
Atlanta is a hilariously inept team on all fronts. In terms of personnel, the offense stacks up with the NFL's best. But poor execution, especially in the clutch, runs rampant. It doesn't help that Michael Penix Jr. remains woefully inaccurate deep into his second NFL season. Not great, Bob.
NFC West
Order | Team | Success % |
|---|---|---|
1 | Los Angeles Rams | 49.6 |
2 | San Francisco 49ers | 48.1 |
3 | Seattle Seahawks | 45.9 |
4 | Arizona Cardinals | 41.6 |
The Rams can quite credibly claim the best offense in the NFL right now. L.A. ranks second in this particular metric — plus fifth in total yards and scoring on a per-game basis. Sean McVay continues to set the standard for the modern age of playcalling, but it helps when 37-year-old Matthew Stafford looks the same as 30-year-old Matthew Stafford. He's the smartest QB in the NFL, able to process the defense in split-second fashion before delivering on-time, on-target passes from a variety of arm slots. Pair Stafford's processing with McVay's penchant for mixing different looks, and defenses have a tough time solving the equation this Rams offense poses. And thus, 42 points against San Francisco on Sunday.
Los Angeles has built up a sizable gap in terms of success rate, but San Francisco and Seattle are both upper-echelon teams. Mac Jones has exceeded all reasonable expectations in place of the injured Brock Purdy, to the point where it's fair to wonder if Purdy should actually reclaim his QB1 mantle once he's healthy. (He will, to be clear, but should he?)
Sam Darnold is an MVP candidate. Straight up, he has built upon last season's success in Minnesota when many thought it might break in the opposite direction. He's on the same wavelength as OC Klint Kubiak and this Seahawks receiver corps is still one of the best in the NFC, even after shedding both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.