Week 1 of the NFL season delivered plenty of surprises — and a lot of mixed results at the quarterback position. From the titanic meltdowns of Tua Tagovailoa and Russell Wilson, to surprisingly effective outings from Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers, there was plenty to write home about.
There isn't a more important position in the NFL than quarterback. We probably talk about it a little too much sometimes — the other positions matter, too — but at the end of the day, it's impossible to win in the playoffs without effective quarterback play. The linchpin of every dominant offense is a brilliant signal-caller under center.
While we can only learn so much from a single week of football games, one of the most telling stats out there is IAY, or Average Intended Air Yards. It measures exactly what it says on the tin — the average depth of every pass attempt from a quarterback. If a quarterback throws two passes, one to a target 20 yards downfield, and one to a target 10 yards downfield, their IAY would be 15. Simple math. Notably, this calculates the distance a ball travels in the air — not how far a receiver travels after the catch.
Let's go through each division to see which quarterbacks were airing it out in Week 1, and which quarterbacks played it safe.
AFC East
Rank | Quarterback | Team | IAY |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | 9.4 |
2 | Drake Maye | New England Patriots | 8 |
3 | Justin Fields | New York Jets | 7.8 |
4 | Tua Tagovailoa | Miami Dolphins | 6.9 |
This is basically chalk. Josh Allen is still the bravest thrower in the NFL. He has no qualms about stretching the defense vertically, whether the pocket is clean or if he's scrambling toward the sideline and chucking across his body. Allen's decision-making has improved dramatically, but he's still going the test the limits of a defense.
The rest of the AFC East is well behind him, of course. Drake Maye has a strong arm but the state of the Patriots' offensive line and wide receiver room leaves him in a complicated position.
Justin Fields made some true standout throws on Sunday — the kind we've have not seen him make in the past. Whether it's a sign of meaningful development or a factor of Pittsburgh's truly abysmal defense remains to be seen.
Tua Tagovailoa in last??? Quelle shocker!!! The man simply cannot test defenes downfield in a serious way unless his targets are wide open.
AFC West
Rank | Quarterback | Team | IAY |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Geno Smith | Las Vegas Raiders | 10.6 |
2 | Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | 9.6 |
3 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | 7 |
4 | Bo Nix | Denver Broncos | 6 |
Geno Smith will probably never get the flowers he deserves. There is more to successful quarterbacking than airing it out, of course, but few NFL gunslingers can take the lid off a defense like Smith. He turns it over too much; his ambition can get the better of him. But when it comes down to pure arm talent, he's up there with the very best quarterbacks in the NFL.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers eked out a victory over the Chiefs in Brazil last Friday. It was a glimpse of what the AFC West is about to become — a bloodbath, with the potential for four competitive teams. The Raiders are better, the Broncos are on the upswing, and the Chargers aren't going anywhere after an 11-win campaign in 2024. Herbert gave us all a nice reminder that Patrick Mahomes isn't the only star quarterback in the division.
Bo Nix and the Broncos were a letdown in Week 1, but let's give the second-year QB the benefit of the doubt (for now) after an exceptional rookie season.
AFC North
Rank | Quarterback | Team | IAY |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | 9.1 |
2 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals | 7 |
3 | Joe Flacco | Cleveland Browns | 5.2 |
4 | Aaron Rodgers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4.3 |
This is an interesting spread. Lamar Jackson at the top is hardly a surprise, especially after Baltimore bled the Bills defense for 40 points on Sunday night. But Joe Burrow's modest total — and Cincy's overall offensive impotence against Cleveland — came as a mild shock. That game was not mention to transform into a defensive slugfest.
Joe Flacco will probably rank higher in the weeks to come. His whole deal is spraying passes all over the field, taking risks and putting his receivers in a position to make big plays. Cleveland doesn't have the best pass-catching corps in the NFL, but Flacco's arm still has a lot of pop.
Aaron Rodgers is dead last is funny and a bit mystifying at first glance. Rodgers threw for 244 yards and four touchdowns as the Steelers poured 34 points on the Jets. But he only averaged 4.3 air yards per attempt? Let's call it the Arthur Smith effect. And to Pittsburgh's credit, it worked, with full buy-in from Rodgers. He rolled to the outside in play action, fired quick-hitting darts to his receivers, and let DK Metcalf wreak havoc after the catch.
AFC South
Rank | Quarterback | Team | IAY |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Cam Ward | Tennessee Titans | 10.8 |
2 | Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.2 |
3 | Daniel Jones | Indianapolis Colts | 6.8 |
4 | CJ Stroud | Houston Texans | 6.3 |
Cam Ward's placement atop the AFC South — and the AFC as a whole — is going to surprise a lot of folks. He completed only 12-of-28 passes for 112 yards in his NFL debut, a 20-12 loss to Denver. Those are bad numbers on the surface, but Ward actually gave Titans fans a lot to be excited about. His receivers let him down several times on Sunday but, if nothing else, Ward showcased his immense arm upside.
This dude was the most electric quarterback in college football last season; there should be no questioning his willingness and ability to chuck it deep. Ward, however, looks happy to execute the game script and make the smart, simple decisions as a rookie. That's probably for the best.
CJ Stroud and the Texans offense were awfully muted in a 14-9 loss to the Rams. The Texans' offense took a huge step back last season as the Bobby Slowik mystique evaporated out of nowhere. Not they have a new playcaller, but we're waiting on the results.
NFC East
Rank | Quarterback | Team | IAY |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys | 10.2 |
2 | Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders | 8.6 |
3 | Russell Wilson | New York Giants | 5.7 |
4 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | 4.5 |
To their credit, the Cowboys were able to drown out the noise after the Micah Parsons trade and trade blows with the reigning champs for a full half. With Philadelphia up 24-20 in the third quarter, a weather delay struck, and from there both offenses slowed to a craw. But before the post-halftime sabbatical, Dallas was tearing through one of the best defensive personnel groups in the NFL. Prescott is back from injury with a point to prove. He's a major talent — and he's going to make full use of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. Hopefully their defense can keep up.
Jayden Daniels lanes about where one would expect, as does Russell Wilson, for that matter. But the real shocker here — at for looking primarily at the box score and the win column — is Jalen Hurts, who just serves as further proof that you can play quarterback effectively without necessary pushing the envelope. Hurts skeptics will cite Philly's run-based defense and the lack of off-script passes from Hurts, but we've seen the Super Bowl MVP level up and change his approach in times of need. Philadelphia is a buzz saw and Hurts simply needs to feed the beast most weeks.
NFC West
Rank | Quarterback | Team | IAY |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Sam Darnold | Seattle Seahawks | 8.3 |
2 | Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | 7.8 |
3 | Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers | 7.5 |
4 | Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals | 5.3 |
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks offense couldn't get much going on Sunday afternoon, but he did, if not much else, display an excellent rapport with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. A 17-13 loss to Brock Purdy's Niners was not the desired outcome, but the Seahawks can rest assured that Darnold's big arm isn't going anywhere. Whether he can find the same success he did in Minnesota will fewer dynamic playmakers around him, however, remains to be seen.
Matthew Stafford was involved in a similarly dull and low-scoring affair in LA's 14-9 win over Houston. This wasn't the most robust display from Stafford, but he still fed Puka Nacua all over the field and connected on a few big plays with Davante Adams. The Rams are battling against Father Time, but this offense should remain competitive in 2025.
As for the bottom-dwelling Kyler Murray, he was mostly fine in Arizona's win over a paltry Saints defense. It was not the most awe-inspiring of performances, but Murray did his thing, stretching plays with his legs, dishing quickly out of play action, and showcasing a solid connection with Marvin Harrison Jr.
NFC North
Rank | Quarterback | Team | IAY |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers | 11.2 |
2 | J.J. McCarthy | Minnesota Vikings | 8.6 |
3 | Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears | 7.6 |
4 | Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | 4.5 |
Jordan Love and the Packers are about to take a leap. The Micah Parsons trade levels up the defense, of course, but Green Bay also made significant offseason additions in the wide receiver room and elsewhere on offense. Love still needs to rein it in from time to time — he can play a bit too free, a bit too bold — but overall, he's one of the most naturally gifted quarterbacks in the NFL. He led the league in air yards per attempt in Week 1, and that feels like a good sign for what's to come in Green Bay.
J.J. McCarthy and Caleb Williams went head-to-head on Monday Night Football in a battle of draft peers. McCarthy began on extremely uneven footing, but came out of the tunnel at halftime looking like a different quarterback. He led Minnesota to victory in his debut. Williams, meanwhile, still has all the talent in the world, but until he can throw more quickly and more accurately, Chicago isn't out of the woods yet.
As for Jared Goff, well.... Rodgers and Hurts put together excellent Week 1 performances without racking up air yards, but this one is different. Goff and the Lions offense hit a brick wall against Green Bay, with Ben Johnson's departure looming large. A top-five MVP candidate last season, Goff looked like a shell of himself on Sunday. Detroit fans should be worried.
NFC South
Rank | Quarterback | Team | IAY |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 10.2 |
2 | Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers | 8.5 |
3 | Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta Falcons | 7.3 |
4 | Spencer Rattler | New Orleans Saints | 7.1 |
Nothing much to report here. Baker Mayfield sits at the top, as expected, despite a muted performance from the Bucs offense in Week 1. Last season saw Mayfield finish third in total passing yards (4,500) behind Joe Burrow and Jared Goff. The former No. 1 pick embraces every opportunity to push the football downfield, sometimes even to a fault.
Bryce Young is the one mild surprise. He's never been devoid of talent, but Young's laggy processing speed and gun-shy mentality were defining features of his first two NFL seasons. Many folks expected progress this season — and it may very well come — but Week 1 was a massive disappointment in terms of efficiency, even if Young was willing to test the Jacksonville defense on occasion.
Michael Penix Jr. and Spencer Rattler, the two sophomores of the NFC South, are both impressive athletes with considerable arm talent. Penix made the long ball his bread and butter at Washington; Rattler was a former top recruit who lit up the SEC on a South Carolina team not a lot of people paid attention to. Both still have a long way to go, especially Rattler, but neither will struggle to air it out when the opportunity arises — at least as far as distance and velocity are concerned. Accuracy, well... that's another story.