5 NFL overreactions that might actually be true: Tua Tagovailoa's end is nigh

The NFL nailed its Week 1 slate. The Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys delivered a rousing rivalry matchup on Thursday Night Football, followed by a taut showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil on Friday. As for Sunday ... hell yeah, brother.

That Steelers-Jets double revenge game was some of the most electric football you'll see. The Falcons lost on a missed last-second field goal. The Bengals, Raiders, 49ers, Cardinals, Broncos, Rams, Bucs, Steelers and Bills all won by a single score.

Speaking of the Bills, that comeback 41-40 victory over Baltimore will go down as the best regular season game played this season. Nothing will come particularly close. Lamar Jackson came out of the gate looking to yank back his MVP crown, only for Josh Allen to pull out the old reverse card in the fourth quarter.

Just thrilling stuff all around, and we still have a compelling Monday Night Football matchup between Minnesota and Chicago to look forward to. For now, let's uncork a handful of strong overreactions that feel rooted in something like the truth.

Lions are cooked without Ben Johnson calling the shots

All your standard Week 1 qualifiers apply here. But man, the Detroit Lions were thoroughly uninspiring in their opening loss to the Green Bay Packers. Some of it is probably circumstantial: This was a game at Lambeau Field, in front of an amped Packers fan base. Green Bay clearly had extra pep in its step for Micah Parsons' debut. The Lions basically lost before they even set foot on the field.

That said, Detroit didn't exactly keep this game close. With four minutes left on the clock, it was 27-6 in Green Bay's favor. The Lions scrounged together a last-second touchdown in an all but futile effort, but this new-look Packers defense put the squeeze on Detroit from start to (almost) finish — and it didn't even take a superhuman effort from Parsons. His first Packers sack was basically pulled from the 2025 smash-hit film Weapons, though, which was very fun.

Jared Goff finished the game with a healthy 225 yards on 31-of-39 passing, notching a touchdown and an interception. But those numbers were a lot grimmer before the aforementioned garbage time scoring drive, and it's clear this offense, while not short on talent, may be short on play-calling genius after Ben Johnson's departure to Chicago. If the Bears drop 30-plus on the Vikings Monday night ... the chatter will be loud.

It is, again, Week 1 of the NFL season and Green Bay just might be an elite defensive unit, but the Lions were the most explosive regular-season offense in the league a year ago. Watching them get strangled in Week 1 was a harsh reality check.

At long last, the Chiefs are well and truly vulnerable

The added difficulty of traveling to and from Brazil won't help the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 2 rematch with the Eagles, which makes their Week 1 loss in São Paulo all the more concerning. The Los Angeles Chargers handled business, with Justin Herbert giving the viewers at home (and abroad) a nice reminder that he is absurdly talented.

Kansas City won 15 games last season, but 11 of those were one-score victories. That is an absurd and unsustainable ratio. While the Chiefs are uniquely poised in high-pressure situations due to their wealth of postseason experience, no team is going to win 11 out of 11 one-score games. Kansas City's only losses came by 10 and 38, the latter with Carson Wentz starting in Week 18 against a Broncos team in need of a win.

This Chiefs offense, once the most vaunted in the NFL, is pretty tame nowadays. Patrick Mahomes isn't going anywhere, but the Chiefs' wide receiver core is limited — now even more so following Xavier Worthy's Week 1 injury. Travis Kelce, once the most physically dominant pass-catcher out there, has lost a step (or several). He completed only two catches on Friday night.

By simple mathematical principle, the Chiefs are going to regress in terms of close game outcomes. That's not to say Kansas City isn't still dangerous, or still calm under pressure. But it does mean that a few more of these squeakers are going to tilt in the opposite direction. We're a week into the season, in fact, and the Chiefs already have more one-score losses than they did last season. The tides are turning.

Aaron Rodgers just needed a new home to get back on track

The Pittsburgh Steelers pulled out a thrilling 34-32 win over the New York Jets in East Rutherford. Aaron Rodgers made sure to savor the moment afterward, and while he doesn't really need credit, the four-time MVP did earn his victory lap. He completed 22-of-30 passes for 244 yards and four touchdowns, looking right at home in the Arthur Smith offense.

It's been a hot minute since Rodgers looked this in command of his surroundings. Most of us were probably skeptical of an Aaron Rodgers-Arthur Smith collaboration; I know I was. But perhaps we've let years of dreadful quarterback play color out perception of Smith. And perhaps we underestimated just how willing Rodgers would be to adapt in his age-42 season.

Rodgers did all the standard Arthur Smith things yesterday — a ton of play action, quick-hitters, spreading the wealth. But he was also able to funnel the appropriate amount of targets to DK Metcalf and keep his stars engaged, which was a point of consternation with Russell Wilson, Desmond Ridder and past quarterbacks under Smith.

This was a single game against a historically ill-fated opponent, but this Jets defense was meant to take a step forward under Aaron Glenn. Pittsburgh dropped 34 points and probably left a few more on the board due to unforced errors or breakdowns in the O-line. So yeah, maybe Rodgers really does still have it.

Ravens can't possibly win the Super Bowl

The Baltimore Ravens blew another golden opportunity in Week 1, building a 34-19 lead over the Buffalo Bills after three quarters only to lose the final frame 22-6. Josh Allen is a miracle-worker and this Bills offense will be a challenge for opponents all season long, but Baltimore really should not have lost Sunday night's game. It was a truly epic collapse — the sort you read about in history books, like Napoleonic France or the Roman Empire, worthy of a Ridley Scott adaptation.

Baltimore has an annoying habit of losing big games by slim margins, often after taking a solid lead. We saw it in the postseason against Kansas City, it's a tale as old as time. While the Ravens are the best AFC team on paper, and I'd go as far as to say Lamar Jackson is the best quarterback in the NFL, it feels like there is almost a mental block keeping them from their true peak. Whenever Baltimore gets close to the mountaintop, they fall down a few pegs due to self-inflicted errors.

Maybe it's a little silly to get that carried away in Week 1, but the Ravens are a popular Super Bowl pick. It feels like Lamar's time is coming, and we know John Harbaugh can get the job done in the postseason. But, until this iteration of the Ravens can prove its mettle late in games against the NFL's crème de la crème, it will be extremely difficult to trust them.

Tua Tagovailoa will get benched for Zach Wilson within weeks

The Miami Dolphins were laughably bad in their 33-8 loss to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. I am pretty sure the Colts are straight up a bad team. (We shan't let Daniel Jones trick us into thinking he's back; it takes more than leaving the Giants to revive that career.) Miami, after weeks of negative reporting out of training camp and palpably rancid vibes, might just be the worst team in the NFL.

On paper, there's nothing to suggest that Miami, once a perennial postseason threat under Mike McDaniel's command, should actually be noncompetitive. The defense is healthier and this offense still has all its bells and whistles. But Tyreek Hill has burned a few too many bridges and Tua Tagovailoa looks completely out of sync with what's happening on the field in a way that was previously reserved for cold-weather games in the postseason. It feels like nobody on the Dolphins actually wants to be there.

Tua was the worst quarterback in the NFL this weekend, and there was a lot of bad quarterback play. It's becoming more and more difficult to discern what Tagovailoa actually brings to an offense that isn't perfectly engineered around him. He has a weak arm, he crumbles at the first sign of pressure and he's not creating extra opportunities with his legs. I am writing QB rankings this week, and I'm struggling to pinpoint quarterbacks who I actually believe are less valuable in a vacuum. That's all I will say.

Miami is paying Tagovailoa an ungodly sum of cash and thus probably feels an obligation to keep starting him. Plus, we know how much Tagovailoa means to McDaniel. But sooner than later, this probably reaches the point where the Dolphins need a shot in the arm and start to wonder if Zach Wilson, a far more naturally gifted quarterback (if deeply erratic and unreliable), might be able to provide it. Dramatic changes are coming down the pipeline in South Beach.