NFL Week 1 picks and predictions, straight-up and ATS: Patriots, Vikings start hot

At this point, we're never going to know more and less about the NFL at the same time as when we're entering Week 1. We've seen the draft and free agency (and trades) all play out, the preseason and training camps are in the rearview, but that can all change once the regular season starts. At this point, it's all about what we think we know that will guide us in NFL Week 1 and our picks for every game, just like I think I know that the New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings are going to surprise some people.

In the case of the Pats, it doesn't seem like it's going to be perfect. The overhaul of the roster in Foxoborough has made things a bit tricky to predict, but the hype around Drake Maye continues to grow, the weaponry surrounding him is much improved, and so too appears to be the culture with Mike Vrabel's arrival. But in Week 1, they'll get to prove that against a team in a not unfamiliar situation, the Pete Carroll-led Las Vegas Raiders.

Minnesota is certainly a different case. They're handing the keys to J.J. McCarthy on offense, even after Sam Darnold led them to 14 wins in the regular season a year ago. That creates some uncertainty, but my faith in head coach Kevin O'Connell will never waver, especially when the task at hand is maximizing the talent of a quarterback. If you're expecting a Vikings drop-off, maybe rethink that as they go into a division Week 1 matchup with the upstart Bears in Ben Johnson's debut.

One thing that's for sure is we're going to learn a lot this week. Hopefully we learn quickly and our preseason conceptions largely turn out to be true so we can have another great season with our weekly predictions. But we can't do that without starting, so it's finally time for our NFL Week 1 picks for every game, handing out predictions both straight-up and against the spread in each matchup.

Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Last Season's NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 170-96 | ATS Record: 147-118-1

NFL Week 1 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game

This is the perfect storm for a weird week of NFL picks. There are a boatload of road favorites, which can be sketchy at any point in the season. However, it's even sketchier in Week 1, when we don't have a full sample of information about what these teams actually are this season with all of the changes that have been made throughout the offseason. But hey, that won't stop us from diving headfirst into some of those road favorites and trusting our gut that they'll be able to live up to expectations.

Toughest NFL Week 1 prediction to make

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

How can you possibly pick this game with any kind of confidence? On the Miami Dolphins side of the equation, the vibes could not be worse right now, it seems, in South Florida. Tyreek Hill appears to be a malcontent and we saw the cracks in the offense already starting to form last season. Never mind the fact that the defense has the chance to be substantially worse than a year ago as well. But at the same time, the Indianapolis Colts are actually starting Daniel Jones at quarterback, which there's no way to feel confident in that as well.

With Danny Dimes starting, I was frankly surprised to see the Colts favored, even in Indianapolis, for this Week 1 matchup. However, that tells me that my most pessimistic read on the Dolphins might actually be correct, and that things might not be great for them coming out of the gate. I'm prepared to look foolish in that because, again, that means backing Jones. But this feels like a perfect example of a Week 1 result that just looks gross in hindsight a few weeks into the season.

Easiest NFL Week 1 pick on the board

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints

I don't even feel like I need to belabor this point, but the New Orleans Saints might be a big bowl of dogwater this season. Spencer Rattler is the starting quarterback, there are holes on the offensive line and littered throughout the defense, and I'm not sure that Kellen Moore is quite going to cut the mustard as a head coach. So, it's no surprise that they're a 6.5-point underdog at home to an upstart Arizona Cardinals team that could be quite dangerous.

While I'm high on the upside of the Kyler Murray-led offense in Arizona this season, this matchup is even more one-sided to me because of the other side of the ball. My read after a season of quiet upgrades is that the Cardinals defense under Jonathan Gannon is about to make a leap and vault Arizona into legitimate contention to win the NFC West. More importantly for Week 1, though, I think he's able to put Moore and Rattler in a blender, rendering the Saints as a doormat for the opening weekend in the NFL.

The pick that probably has you scratching your head

Dallas Cowboys (+8.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (TNF)

I'm pretty damn confident that the reigning champion Philadelphia Eagles will be able to dispatch the rival Dallas Cowboys in the wake of the Micah Parsons trade. My read on Brian Schottenheimer's Cowboys, though, makes the 8.5-point line quite tricky.

It feels like Dallas could end up being this year's version of last year's Bengals, able to score with just about anyone in the NFL, but unable to come up with nearly enough stops. The addition of George Pickens gives the Cowboys real weaponry on the outside, and the return of Dak Prescott raises the ceiling, even against a defense of the Eagles' caliber.

Again, I don't think that Dallas can keep up in order to win this game, especially on the road. However, I do think the heavy road underdog has major backdoor cover potential with the potency of this offense. We're getting uber narrative specific, but a late, meaningless touchdown pass to get the cover for the Cowboys feels so very much on the table.