Excitement is in the air as Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off this Thursday, followed by another game Friday and a 13-game slate on Sunday.
Survivor pools are a fun way to create further excitement and investment around the season. Picking one team to win each week seems simple enough. However, finding the right team to pick in Week 1 can be challenging. We are here to help, though. Let's dive into four picks that should keep you alive in Week 1 of your survivor pool(s).
4. Cincinnati Bengals (opponent: Cleveland Browns)
The Cincinnati Bengals have historically gotten off to slow starts under head coach Zac Taylor. However, it's hard to imagine this trend continuing against a Cleveland Browns team that is projected to win just 4.5 games. The Bengals swept the Browns last season. Additionally, they covered the current line of 5.5 points both times. Without a doubt, the Bengals seem poised to beat the Browns in this Week 1 Ohio showdown.
Cincinnati posted the league's best passing offense last season. With Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, the Bengals will continue their offensive dominance. Led by a 40-year-old Joe Flacco, the Browns won't be able to keep up with Cincy's high-powered offense. While this isn't as safe as the other three picks, the Bengals are a rock-solid survivor pick in Week 1.
3. Denver Broncos (opponent: Tennessee Titans)
As 8.5-point favorites, the Denver Broncos jump out as a clear survivor pool pick. The Broncos made the playoffs with a 10-7 record last year, while the Tennessee Titans finished with a league-worst 3-14 record. Bo Nix is entering his second year, and the Broncos upgraded their run game. Plus, they are returning much of their seventh-ranked defense.
Sure, the Titans should be an improved team with No. 1 pick Cam Ward at the helm. However, the track record for rookie quarterbacks on the road in Week 1 is dismal. Notably, no rookie QB has won a road Week 1 game since 2018. Going against an elite Broncos defense on the road will only make things harder. Undoubtedly, the Broncos are one of the safest picks in any survivor pool, and it's hard to imagine a world where they lose in Week 1.
2. Philadelphia Eagles (opponent: Dallas Cowboys)
Per DraftKings, the Philadelphia Eagles are tied with the Broncos as the biggest favorites in Week 1 with a -8.5 line. Of course, the defending Super Bowl champs kick off the season on Thursday against the Dallas Cowboys. Philly swept their rivals last year, winning by an average of 31 points. The Eagles remain one of the league's best teams. Conversely, the Cowboys have gotten worse this offseason, especially on defense following the Micah Parsons trade.
The Cowboys ranked 29th in rushing defense last season. Even with Parsons, they would have had a tough time containing the Eagles' explosive run game led by Saquon Barkley. Now they are completely hopeless against Philly. Overall, the Eagles are perhaps the safest pick for survivor pool in Week 1. The only thing that holds them back from the top spot is the idea of saving them for later in the season.
1. Arizona Cardinals (opponent: New Orleans Saints)
Picking against the New Orleans Saints might be a profitable strategy in survivor pools this year, at least for the first few weeks. The Saints are tied for the lowest over-under win total at 4.5 games and are starting the league's worst quarterback in Spencer Rattler. While the Arizona Cardinals aren't an elite team, they should be able to handle the Saints in Week 1. Arizona is listed as a 6.5-point favorite on the road, which signals the oddsmakers' confidence in them.
Last year, the Cardinals were 6-1 against teams below .500, meaning they know how to take care of business. Plus, they had the seventh-best rushing offense, while the Saints had the 31st-ranked run defense. With Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, the Cardinals can embarrass the Saints on the ground and in the air. Ultimately, the Cardinals winning on Sunday feels like a certainty, and from a strategic perspective, not using an elite team early is logical.