As we move past the NFL Trade Deadline, the landscape of the league has certainly changed a bit going into Week 10. Sure, a team like the red-hot New England Patriots stood pat as buyers, but their path in the AFC East may have gotten even friendlier — though that won't help them in Week 10 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — with the Jets and Dolphins selling. Meanwhile, teams like the Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks look even more formidable than before. Those are the things we have to be weighing when making our weekly NFL picks and predictions.
Maybe we need to weigh them more, too. I'd be lying to you if I told you I was pleased with how our NFL picks have gone leading up to Week 10. We're fine, but nothing more, straight-up, but after a 55.2% winning percentage against the spread last season, we're just skating along below .500 this year. We can still recover, no doubt, but it's been frustrating in that regard.
No time like this time for a turnaround, though! Let's get into my NFL Week 10 picks, with predictions straight-up and against the spread for every game on the slate.
2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 80-55 (Last Week: 8-6 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 62-73 (Last Week: 6-8 | 2024 record 147-118-1)
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
NFL Week 10 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 10 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Raiders at Broncos (TNF) | Broncos | Broncos -8.5 |
Falcons at Colts (Germany) | Colts | Colts -6.5 |
Jaguars at Texans | Jaguars | Jaguars +1.5 |
Giants at Bears | Bears | Bears -4.5 |
Ravens at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings +4.5 |
Browns at Jets | Browns | Browns -2.5 |
Saints at Panthers | Panthers | Panthers -5.5 |
Bills at Dolphins | Bills | Bills -9.5 |
Patriots at Buccaneers | Patriots | Patriots +2.5 |
Cardinals at Seahawks | Seahawks | Seahawks -6.5 |
Rams at 49ers | Rams | Rams -4.5 |
Lions at Commanders | Lions | Lions -8.5 |
Steelers at Chargers (SNF) | Chargers | Chargers -3 |
Eagles at Packers (MNF) | Packers | Packers -2.5 |
Teams on bye in Week 10: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Tennessee Titans
Goodness, is that not a wild mix of some great and some truly not-so-great (to put it as kindly as possible) games this week. For every Patriots-Bucs matchup we have, we also have Browns-Jets. For every Rams-49ers or Eagles-Packers showdown, we have teams like the Giants or Raiders looking completely unmatched.
That should have the makings of a great Week 10, though! Not only do we hope that the marquee games on the slate deliver the goods, but if we know anything about this crazy league, it's that one of the less-than-stellar games on the surface actually has the potential to be the most exciting game on Sunday.
Toughest NFL Week 10 prediction to make
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
For whatever reason, it doesn't fully feel like the Patriots are getting the respect they've earned to this point. Part of that is probably because of the strength of schedule, but the reality is that they are right on par with the Buccaneers, if not a little bit better, in most metrics this year. For instance, New England has a net success rate (offensive success rate - defensive success rate) of +0.11 on the year. Tampa Bay is right behind at +0.10.
Having said that, the Bucs have also luck-boxed their way through some games this season, while the Patriots appear to be continuing their trend upward. They are a young team that's gaining experience and confidence. And while a road matchup against a near playoff lock won't be an easy game, I think this game should be closer to a pick-em than it is at nearly a field goal in favor of Tampa. We're getting a bit frisky to take the Pats outright too, but I'm starting to believe in this team.
Easiest NFL Week 10 pick on the board
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Speaking of teams I'm starting to believe in, that belief is even stronger with the Seahawks, who may well just be one of the best teams in the NFL. Tell me what Seattle doesn't do well at this point? Sam Darnold hasn't let off after his resurgence in Minnesota last season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is on another planet, the defense is thriving under Mike Macdonald, and the list goes on. And then you have the Cardinals, who just named Jacoby Brissett the starter, but maybe with some smoke and mirrors.
Arizona has been frustrating most of the season, perhaps more so when Kyler Murray was at the helm, but their big win over Dallas might be fooling some people. The Cowboys defense stunk in that game and has for much of the year. Are we sure that they're going to have even a semblance of the same success on the road in Seattle? I can't buy that, so give me the Seahawks winning this one pretty damn comfortably.
The pick that probably has you scratching your head
Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) at Houston Texans
Frankly, I'm the one scratching my head just from looking at this line. Davis Mills is set to start for C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson Jr. didn't practice on Wednesday, along with many others, and Houston just doesn't seem like it's anything but a shell of itself. Even if they are at home for this game, I can't for the life of me figure out why the Texans are favored to win this game, so I have to take the Jaguars.
At the same time, the fact that they are favored has me searching desperately for something I'm missing, overlooking or maybe just don't know. I can't find it, which makes me feel like I'm walking into a trap. But call me a fool, because I'm walking right in. The Jags aren't perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but they are more than talented enough and capable of beating what looks like it could be a zombie version of Houston.