Whether or not we always appreciate it or not, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills have developed a generational rivalry with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen battling over the past near-decade. And in Week 9, the two teams will meet again. As fate would have it (or simply by product of these teams having arguably the NFL's two best quarterbacks), both the Chiefs and Bills are eyeing AFC dominance and a run at the Super Bowl once again. And while we're making NFL picks for every Week 9 game, your eyes immediately gravitate to these two AFC behemoths matched up once again.
After an inauspicious start, Mahomes and the Chiefs have found their footing of late, particularly with the return of Rashee Rice after his six-game suspension. They've been cooking on all cylinders, but that could be said of the Bills for most of this season as well, too. And let's not forget, we're heading to the cold streets of Buffalo for this Week 9 showdown. Even with that, Kansas City is still a slight favorite, but all bets are off when these two play as they've delivered instant classic after instant classic over the years.
But NFL fans won't have to sit around and just wait for Chiefs-Bills to enjoy the weekend of football, thankfully. The reeling Steelers will try to shock the still-surging Colts, the Broncos and Texans face off in a matchup of AFC could-be contenders, J.J. McCarthy returns to try and right the Vikings ship against the Lions, and we even have what should be a thriller on Monday night with the Cowboys hosting the Cardinals.
What we're focused on, though, is being right. We're coming off of back-to-back winning weeks, but still have ground to make up against the spread. Let's do just that as we get into our NFL Week 9 picks with predictions for every game straight-up and against the spread.
2025 NFL Picks Straight-Up Record: 72-49 (Last Week: 8-5 | 2024 record: 170-96) | ATS Record: 56-65 (Last Week: 7-6 | 2024 record (147-118-1)
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
NFL Week 9 predictions: Picks straight-up and ATS for every game
NFL Week 9 Matchup | Straight-Up Pick | ATS Pick |
|---|---|---|
Ravens at Dolphins (TNF) | Ravens | Ravens -7.5 |
Falcons at Patriots | Patriots | Patriots -5.5 |
Panthers at Packers | Packers | Panthers +13.5 |
Broncos at Texans | Texans | Texans -1.5 |
Chargers at Titans | Chargers | Chargers -9.5 |
Bears at Bengals | Bears | Bears -3 |
Colts at Steelers | Colts | Colts -3 |
49ers at Giants | Giants | Giants +2.5 |
Vikings at Lions | Lions | Lions -8.5 |
Saints at Rams | Rams | Rams -14.5 |
Jaguars at Raiders | Jaguars | Jaguars -3 |
Chiefs at Bills | Bills | Bills +1.5 |
Seahawks at Commanders (SNF) | Seahawks | Seahawks -3 |
Cardinals at Cowboys | Cowboys | Cowboys -2.5 |
Teams on bye in Week 9: Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
One thing that certainly sticks out in the Week 9 slate is, despite a lot of intrigue with games around the league, there are also a lot of large spreads this week. After just watching a near full slate of blowouts last week, let's hope that we're not in for more of the same — but we might be. That's just what the oddsmakers are clearly projecting when five of the 14 games being played this week have a spread of a touchdown or more, including two that are in the two-touchdown range.
As mentioned, though, NFL Week 9 should absolutely finish with a bang. We have the Chiefs-Bills showdown in the late window as the headliner, but also get a fun matchup — especially if Jayden Daniels returns — on Sunday Night Football will Seahawks-Commanders before what should be a high-octane shootout between the Cowboys and Cardinals. We aren't picking totals here, but the over 53.5 in that Monday Night Football contest is staring at me like the Green Goblin mask on the back of the chair.
Toughest NFL Week 9 prediction to make
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+1.5)
Obviously, the Chiefs-Bills rivalry has been tightly contested in the Mahomes-Allen era, which is backed up by the fact that Kansas City is just 5-4 against Buffalo in the 2020s, making this the 10th meeting of the decade already. And these two teams haven't gone anywhere in terms of their quality, which means I'd also be lying if I said that the recent upswing for the Chiefs didn't have me thinking hard about taking the road favorite in this game.
At the same time, though, the Bills might be the most potent offense that the Chiefs have played. Furthermore, while the Lions would argue that's the case as well, Sean McDermott and Joe Brady are more than familiar with how to attack Steve Spagnuolo's defense, perhaps having more consistent success in that regard than any other team in the NFL. If that weren't enough, I also can't ignore the simple historical trend that Buffalo has actually owned this Mahomes-Allen rivalry in the regular season, with the Bills having won the last four meetings when removing postseason matchups.
With this game at Highmark Stadium, I have to give the slight edge to the Bills, but that doesn't mean I feel particularly great about it either!
Easiest NFL Week 9 pick on the board
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-14.5)
Forgive me, but I don't believe that the Tyler Shough move is going to work out all that well for the Saints in this matchup. Not only is the 26-year-old rookie not exactly my cup of tea as a prospect, particularly after getting a look at him in the preseason, but he's also behind a bad offensive line that will have to protect him from a fierce Rams pass rush. That's not a matchup that inspires a ton of confidence in what the Saints can do offensively in this game, especially on the road in Los Angeles on Sunday.
On the flip side of that, the Saints defense has given up at least 20 points in all but one game this season, their lone victory (which came at home, for what that's worth). More importantly, against top-tier offenses like the Seahawks and Bills, this team gave up 44 and 31 points on the road. Sean McVay with the way Matthew Stafford and this Rams offense are cooking might have some more pain dialed up for New Orleans.
A spread this big normally scares the hell out of me when it comes to taking the favorite, but not here.
The pick that probably has you scratching your head
Carolina Panthers (+13.5) at Green Bay Packers
Let me start by saying that I'm not picking the Panthers to win this game outright in a massive upset. Having said that, I am wondering if this is just a few too many points for the Packers, despite how good they are, in this matchup.
For starters, even with Green Bay starting to fire on all cylinders, we simply haven't seen this team blow anyone out, regardless of level of competition. Since beating the Lions 27-13 in Week 1, the largest margin of victory for the Packers was last week with a 10-point win over the Steelers. That includes a nine-point win at home over the Bengals and a four-point road win over the Cardinals as well.
On the flip side of that, while the Panthers have been susceptible to blowouts with three losses by 16 or more points this season, they've also been frisky at times as well, especially against defenses that can give up points, which is a mold Green Bay fits in. With Bryce Young likely returning this week, I think the Panthers keep this game within arm's reach and within two touchdowns, or give us a backdoor cover with some garbage time scoring. In any case, that feels like we have more bases covered there than with predicting a Packers rout.