Week 13 of the NFL season is in the books, and as the NFL playoff picture gets a little clearer (sort of?), it's getting easier to make sense of another wild weekend of football. The Rams lost to the Panthers, Buffalo suddenly has a running defense, and Houston's pass rush looks like a unit of Avengers. Let's see if we can parse through the fog of the weekend to determine lessons that can be taken away to the end of the season, and what notions to let go of:
What we learned
Houston's defense might be the best unit in the NFL
Yes. Better than Dallas' air attack, better than Josh Allen and James Cook, and now, definitively, better than the best scoring offense in the NFL. Up until Week 13, the Colts led the league with 31 points per game. Houston held them to 16. And it wasn't just 16 points, but 16 points in a loss. It didn't even matter that C.J. Stroud continued a ho-hum season against one of the worst passing defenses in the NFL (22/35, 276 yards, 1 INT, 0 TDs). They were rushing with Nico Collins they were so confident. In today's NFL, defense might not win championships, but it sure can strangle your way into the playoffs.
It was Brian Thomas Jr.'s (and Las Vegas') fault
Yes, it was against the Tennessee Titans. Yes, it was only his third game in Jacksonville. But what a breath of fresh air Jakobi Meyers has been for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars. (And boy, oh boy, has he made the Raiders look stupid.) Even after being marked as healthy against the Titans in Week 13, Brian Thomas Jr. was hardly looked at (2/3 receptions) relative to Meyers (6/6, 90 yards, 1 TD). The league leader in dropped passes should be taking all of the blame for Jacksonville's early-season passing woes from here on out.
Neither Super Bowl LIX team will make it past the Wild Card
In fact, there's more than a legitimate chance for the Chiefs to not even make the playoffs after a nail-biting loss to the streaking Cowboys. Meanwhile, A.J. Brown's big night against the Bears (10/12 receptions, 132 yards, 2 TDs) couldn't cure Philadelphia's offensive woes, even against a porous Chicago defense. The Eagles can legitimately beat the NFC's best, as evidenced by Week 3, but they can also lose to anyone in the conference.
Don't be fooled
Matt Stafford's mistakes were a blip
Let's not get it twisted: that was an embarrassing loss for the Rams, albeit against a red-hot Carolina team that's suddenly able to keep up with 28 points of offense, pick six not withstanding. But Matthew Stafford doesn't make mistakes, not since getting to Los Angeles. His two interceptions on the day literally doubled his season total up until then, and one of them came as the result of a batted pass. The Rams are still the scariest and most efficient offense in football.
The Bengals aren't out of the AFC North
It is wild to think about, but the Bengals aren't as dead in the water as initially thought. The Steelers owned the AFC North going into the Sunday of Week 13, but an awful loss to the Bills have left the door wide open, not just for the Ravens, but for Cincinnati behind a Joe Burrow that is back like he never left. His connection with Ja'Marr chase is back, Chase Brown is a fantasy RB1 once again, and their defense held a healthy Lamar Jackson-led Ravens team to 14 points. Cincinnati all of a sudden finishes the season with five very winnable games, and it's easy to see all three of the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers finishing with 9-8 records.
Carolina won't win the NFC South
Despite a big win against the Rams, it is likely too little, too late for the Panthers. Because the team they're chasing is starting to get healthy again and just gutted out a huge win. Baker Mayfield, even with an injury, is willpower personified (194 passing yards, 1TD, 0 INT), Bucky Irving is back in the lineup, and Chris Godwin, Jr. is starting to lock in. Meanwhile, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan are closer and closer to getting back on the field, and Tampa Bay's schedule is soft to finish out the season.