Few teams in the league entered Week 16 as hot as the Denver Broncos. Even though it looked as if Sean Payton's team were pulling off Houdini acts with their exploits in close games of late, the AFC's top seed was theirs to claim with two wins in their final three games.
But the playoff picture took a massive shakeup as Denver was bullied at home by the Jacksonville Jaguars, losing 34-20 to snap their 11-game winning streak and raise serious doubts about their ability to navigate the postseason. As we look at the winners and losers from another NFL Sunday, we'll start on the negative side as the Broncos' performance requires further examination.
NFL winners and losers from Week 16
Loser: Denver Broncos
The 11-game winning streak Denver was riding came mostly against teams who won't be making the playoffs. There has been quiet slippage from the Broncos' previously elite defense, which had given up an average of 22 points per game over their four previous games, and those cracks were exposed in a huge way against Jacksonville on Sunday.
The game was tied at 17 in the second half before the Jaguars starting punching the Broncos in the mouth, ripping off 17 unanswered points between a three-and-out from the Denver offense as well as an ill-timed fumble from Bo Nix on a strip sack. Perhaps this result is a wakeup call for Denver, which had been playing with fire for a while with all its one-possession games, but their loss did make things a bit dicier for them with a Week 18 rematch against the Chargers looming.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville was not a team many took seriously entering Week 16 despite a run of five straight victories that began with a 35-6 beatdown of the Los Angeles Chargers. But seeing Trevor Lawrence light up an outstanding defense on the road is a great result for Liam Coen, who could see Jacksonville wrap up a playoff spot as soon as Monday night if the Colts lose to San Francisco.
Lawrence picked apart the Broncos secondary, completing 23-of-36 passes for 279 yards with three touchdowns while running for another score. A Houston win means the Jaguars have to keep winning to secure a division crown, but a road victory like this one puts the rest of the AFC on notice that you can't sleep on Jacksonville as a Super Bowl threat.
Loser: Detroit Lions
After a few years as the NFL's new hotness, Lions fans are back to experiencing profound grief as Detroit's chances of making the playoffs continue to fade. While Pittsburgh thoroughly outplayed Detroit on the day, rushing for over 200 yards on the ground and holding a 12-point lead late in the fourth quarter, the Lions made a furious charge as they scored a touchdown and were driving for a second after Chris Boswell's missed field goal before two key offensive pass interference calls wiped game-winning scores off the board.
The defeat secured postseason spots for San Francisco and Chicago, significantly narrowing the Lions' path to the postseason — which requires them to win out and have the Green Bay Packers lose out. A lot has gone wrong for the Lions this year, and they are running out of time to salvage a season where they have been relatively healthy while failing to get enough big plays late in games.
Winner: Carolina Panthers
The schizophrenic nature of the Carolina Panthers meant the pendulum was due to swing back in their favor in Week 16, and it came to pass in the form of a key 23-20 victory over Tampa Bay. With a visit from Seattle looming in Week 17, Carolina was the more desperate team and played like it, smothering Tampa Bay's passing game to the tune of only 145 yards for Baker Mayfield plus a key pick as the Bucs were driving to try and tie the game.
One win in Carolina's last two games should seal the deal for the franchise's first playoff appearance since 2017 and first division title since 2015, which also happened to be the Panthers' last Super Bowl appearance. No one is expecting the Panthers to stampede through a stacked NFC field, but being in position to win the division is tremendous progress for a team that looked to be at an anxious crossroads earlier this season.
Loser: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are witnessing a full-on collapse for Tampa Bay, which has seen its depleted defense get shredded routinely in recent weeks. The Buccaneers have now dropped six of their past seven games since returning from their bye, turning a comfortable 6-2 division lead into a 7-8 record that could slide them out of the playoffs entirely.
This stretch of ineptitude could raise the heat on the seat of head coach Todd Bowles, who has a lot of explaining to do if the Buccaneers let themselves get caught by a very weak division. Week 17's game against Miami is winnable, which could set up a do-or-die rematch against Carolina in Week 18 at home, but we also thought the Buccaneers could handle division games against Atlanta and New Orleans — only for those to turn into defeats that are looming large right now.
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert looked much better throwing the football against Dallas' vulnerable pass defense, tossing two touchdowns while throwing for 300 yards against the Cowboys on Sunday. The 34-17 victory moved Los Angeles to 11-4 on the season, putting them in position to clinch a playoff spot if Indianapolis loses against San Francisco on Monday night.
The Chargers are also big beneficiaries of Denver's loss to Jacksonville, moving them to within one game of the Broncos in the AFC West. A victory over Houston on Saturday would mean they could secure the division crown with a win over Denver in Week 18 by completing a season sweep of their bitter rivals.
Loser: Quarterback play
While fantasy players got huge point totals throughout the week, most of that production came in spite of a slew of bad quarterback play. Injuries and "evaluations" (a clever turn of phrase which justifies a potential tank) meant that the likes of Josh Johnson, Chris Oladokun, Brady Cook, Max Brosmer and Quinn Ewers played meaningful snaps in Week 16.
With a short week on tap for six teams in Week 17, there's a chance that three of these passers (Johnson, Oladokun and Brosmer) could be starting in standalone games on Christmas Day. The NFL has long envisioned an 18-game schedule as a nice island spot, since it would help them get the Super Bowl to President's Day weekend, but seeing this many teams starting backups or third stringers in mid-December isn't good evidence that the product would improve with extra regular-season games.
Winner: Tyler Shough
The Saints aren't going anywhere this season, but New Orleans has quietly improved since Kellen Moore turned the offense over to Tyler Shough, who has now won four of his past six games. Shough took full advantage of a depleted New York Jets defense on Sunday, completing 32-of-49 passes for a career-high 308 yards and a touchdown in an easy 29-6 victory.
All of those wins have removed the Saints from the range where they could easily draft a quarterback next spring, but Shough's steady improvement has made the position a non-issue for now. The strong run for New Orleans has included a 3-1 record against Tampa Bay and Carolina, the NFC South's two top teams, offering hope that a good draft and offseason could help Shough bring the Saints into postseason contention in 2026.