It's Thanksgiving week and the NFL playoff picture is starting to come into focus. While no team has clinched a spot yet, there are a number of teams on the brink of being knocked out of playoff contention. Not that any of these teams have much playoff hope left at this point, though. Most of them are already looking ahead to the 2026 NFL Draft and dreaming about how they can fix their many, many issues.
Which teams are we talking about? Well, you can probably guess, because you watch football and know which teams are bad. I don't need to tell you that the Cardinals and Titans aren't going to make the playoffs, right? But what you might be wondering is what exact mix of events will need to happen for those teams to officially fall out of the picture, so let's discuss those. Here are the playoff clinching and elimination scenarios heading into Week 13.
Week 13 playoff clinching scenarios
Technically, there are no teams that can clinch a playoff spot in Week 13. However, that doesn't mean there aren't teams that can move closer to clinching a playoff spot.
Based on NFL.com's playoff probability, three teams would have a greater than 99 percent chance to make the playoffs with a win this week: the Patriots, Rams and Eagles. Depending on other outcomes, we might start to see some clinching scenarios pop up very soon, but for now, no one will punch their ticket to the postseason just yet.
Week 13 playoff elimination scenarios
Entering Week 13, only the New York Giants have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, but this week could see that number swell. Here's how certain team could see their playoff hopes officially dashed.
Arizona Cardinals
This is one of the simpler scenarios.
If the Cardinals lose on the road to Tampa plus the Bears win or tie against the Eagles and the Packers defeat the Lions, then Arizona is out.
Washington Commanders
This is one of the more unlikely scenarios as far as playoff elimination goes, but let's go over it.
Obviously, a Washington loss is required here. In addition to that, the Commanders need the Packers and Seahawks to both win. That all seems plausible, right?
Here's the part that isn't: If those things happen, Washington is still alive unless the Eagles and Bears tie. If that unlikely result happens in addition to the results from the last paragraph, the Commanders are out.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are in trouble, as there are four different scenarios that eliminate them from playoff contention, which involve Saints losses and ties.
The two loss scenarios: New Orleans loses to the Dolphins and one of the following things happens: the Buccaneers win or tie against the Cardinals or the Panthers win or tie against the Rams.
If New Orleans ties with Miami, then the Saints would be eliminated with either a Tampa win and Carolina win/tie, or with a Tampa tie and a Carolina win.
Tennessee Titans
The AFC scenarios are WEIRD. For example, there are seven ways that the Titans could be eliminated this week. The easiest way? Lose or tie against the Jaguars. That would knock the Titans out no matter what happens.
However, a win likely won't save Tennessee, because there are still six ways the Titans can be eliminated with a victory:
1. Buffalo win/tie and Houston win
2. Buffalo win/tie, Houston tie and Kansas City tie
3. Buffalo win/tie and Kansas City win
4. Baltimore win and Houston win
5. Baltimore win, Houston tie and Kansas City tie
6. Baltimore win and Kansas City win
So, uhh...farewell, Titans!
New York Jets
Did you think the Titans scenario had a lot of contigencies? Well...welcome to the Jets scenarios. There are 10 different combinations that would keep the Jets out of the playoff — five for a Jets loss and five more for a Jets tie.
Jets loss scenarios:
1. Jacksonville win/tie and Buffalo win/tie
2. Jacksonville win/tie, Houston win and Kansas City win/tie
3. Jacksonville win/tie, Houston tie and Kansas City win
4. Buffalo win/tie, Houston win and Kansas City win/tie
5. Buffalo win/tie, Houston tie and Kansas City win
Jets tie scenarios:
1. Buffalo win, Jacksonville win and Chargers win/tie
2. Buffalo win, Jacksonville win and Houston win/tie
3. Buffalo win, Jacksonville win and Kansas City win/tie
4. Buffalo win, Houston win and Kansas City win
5. Jacksonville win, Houston win and Kansas City win
Las Vegas Raiders
Finally, the Raiders also have a ton of elimination scenarios. Seriously, AFC: y'all are making my head hurt.
Here's the eight ways the Raiders can be eliminated:
1. Las Vegas loss, Buffalo win/tie and Jacksonville win/tie
2. Las Vegas loss, Buffalo win/tie, Houston win and Kansas City win/tie
3. Las Vegas loss, Buffalo win/tie, Houston tie and Kansas City win
4. Las Vegas loss, Jacksonville win/tie and Houston win
5. Las Vegas loss, Jacksonville win/tie, Houston tie and Kansas City tie
6. Las Vegas loss, Jacksonville win/tie and Kansas City win
7. Las Vegas tie, Buffalo win and Jacksonville win
8. Las Vegas tie, Buffalo tie, Jacksonville win, Houston win and Kansas City win
So, uhh, yeah. Those are the elimination scenarios. Pretty simple in the NFC and a confusing nightmare in the AFC.