The NFL is a league driven by parity. While the worst teams in the league end up with the best picks the following NFL Draft, the best teams not only get the worst, but have to play the hardest schedules. These are a few of the things the NFL does to keep the dream alive for all 32 of its franchises. Some are more dysfunctional than others, but everyone should be vying for the playoffs.
In a given season, there are about eight teams with realistic Super Bowl championship aspirations. There are another eight that will need a miracle to even make the postseason. As for the other 16, their fates hang in the balances. Perhaps one of them can win their respective conference? Others may circle the drain in tragic fashion. This is why you have to play the games and see what happens.
So what I want to do today is make six distinct changes to the playoff field from a season ago. I will be swapping out six teams and inserting six new ones. No, I am not saying this is what is going to happen, or if I got any of these teams right. I am only trying to open up our collective minds to these new possibilities. I have put a great deal of thought into this exercise, so this is not from off the cuff.
If have these six substitutions ranked based on how likely this team will replace that team and so on.
6. Houston Texans
I have come full circle on the Houston Texans. They are still the team to beat in the AFC South, but I have a bad feeling they are not going to take advantage of the rest of the division being down. In a way, I feel like they may have missed their boat in that regard. Eventually, they are going to have to pay C.J. Stroud top-dollar as their franchise quarterback. I do question if Nick Caserio is even good at all.
For the time being, I will still take Houston to win the division, but it may only be by the skin of its teeth. It would be a shame for the Texans to waste Stroud's rookie contract by not even getting to the AFC Championship Game. They have never made it that far in their history, so there is a first time for everything, right? In a way, if they do not make it there this season, it is not happening with this core.
If Houston played in another division, I would have them a few spots higher on this list than at No. 6.
Who replaces the Houston Texans in the AFC playoffs?: Tennessee Titans
This is the real struggle. If the Texans do not win the AFC South, then who does? While one could make an argument for any of their three division rivals, they all will be of the weak variety. Thus, it is why I am willing to throw a Hail Mary and say it could be the Tennessee Titans. To me, this is all about playing an easy schedule and having an emerging talent at quarterback in first overall pick Cam Ward.
I do not trust the quarterback situation in Indianapolis, nor do I trust the coaching staff in Jacksonville. For that reason, I can kind of sort of get on board with the Titans potentially going worst to first. Ward has the quick release of a Dan Marino. I was a big fan of Brian Callahan when he was the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati. It remains to be seen about Mike Borgonzi as general manager.
I am slightly more confident on the Texans missing the playoffs than I am of the Titans making them.
5. Los Angeles Chargers
At some point, Justin Herbert needs to be more than the idea of a franchise quarterback. He needs to separate from the pack to help elevate his team. Although I have liked the Los Angeles Chargers' last two drafts, they still play in a tough division. Kansas City reigns supreme, while I think Denver has an incredibly high floor. Las Vegas may be the last-place team by default, but they are improving a bit.
I just find myself struggling to think the Chargers are going to hold steady and occupy one of three AFC Wild Card spots. Denver feels more likely to do that this season in my estimation. Since I feel the AFC North is getting at least two teams in, somebody has to drop out. Because I could go either way with the Chargers, I do not have a strong enough of a conviction to keep them in, as I doubt Herbert.
As far as who could replace the Chargers in the AFC field, we have to look over at another division.
Who replaces the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC playoffs?: New England Patriots
The New England Patriots are my other shot-in-the-dark team in the AFC, along with Tennessee. Somebody has to finish in second place in the AFC East to Buffalo, so it might as well be New England. I would argue they edge out New York for that designation, as I am not high on Miami at all. To me, this is all about the team rallying around new head coach Mike Vrabel to lift up Drake Maye.
Now that Maye has a real head coach, I could see a scenario where the Patriots vie for the No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the AFC if they can pull off a few upsets. There are wins to be had at the bottom of the conference. My template for them is loosely based on how good Washington was a year ago. Vrabel is not exactly cut from the same cloth at Dan Quinn, but they seem to inject enthusiasm into teams.
The Patriots could be akin to what Denver was last season as an obvious first-round playoff loser.
4. Minnesota Vikings
Anyone who has read my writing over the last few years should know I am a major critic of all things Minnesota Vikings. While head coach Kevin O'Connell is untouchable, I often struggle to see how the pieces fit together in a Kwesi Adofo-Mensah front office. Last year, I got burned really badly when it came to shorting the Vikings. I did not trust Sam Darnold. I still do not, but I trust J.J. McCarthy less.
Although I expect Detroit to pull back a bit, the Lions are still a playoff team in my estimation. Green Bay's floor is its ceiling, which means 10 or 11 wins and a playoff berth. Minnesota is banking on a second-year quarterback coming off an injury that derailed his entire rookie campaign. Michigan largely propped up McCarthy. The Vikings could do the same, but their downtick is far more punitive.
I am not high on Minnesota making the playoffs, but finding the right replacement is rather difficult.
Who replaces the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC playoffs?: Dallas Cowboys
This is going to get me in trouble, is it not? I am not ruling out the possibility of the NFC East getting three teams into the playoffs next season. Philadelphia is a lock and Washington might as well be. New York will probably be awful again, but the G-Men should show signs of improvement. The reason why I am high on the Dallas Cowboys this year is I think their offense will be strong through the air.
Dak Prescott will be back from injury. So will CeeDee Lamb, who was really battling a year ago. Now that they traded for George Pickens, the Cowboys' passing game could really take flight. I low-key love the addition of Tyler Booker in the trenches to replace Zack Martin. While Brian Schottenheimer could be over his skis as a head coach, he has to realize this is his only opportunity to ever be one.
If Dallas can win around 10 games, the Cowboys should be vying for either the No. 6 or No. 7 seed.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
No, I am not ruling out the chance of the NFC South getting multiple teams into the postseason this year. My concerns for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are that they have been on top for so long, but there may be cracks forming in the foundation. You can only lose so many coordinators year after year before coaching attrition rears its ugly head. It will be up to Baker Mayfield to stave off decline.
The other components at play here are rivals teams like Atlanta and Carolina being on the rise. The Falcons are probably ready to make the playoffs now, whereas the Panthers may need another year or so. Look at them like Arizona from a year ago. If the Buccaneers' offense regresses under Josh Grizzard, that could be problematic for a team that has not exactly been overly sound on defense.
You can flip a coin when it comes to Tampa Bay making the playoffs for a sixth season in a row here.
Who replaces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC playoffs?: Atlanta Falcons
It would have to be the Atlanta Falcons, right? Atlanta has the potential to have one of the better offenses in the league. It really comes down to how quickly Michael Penix Jr. takes to Zac Robinson's scheme in his first year as the full-time starter. The Falcons should be able to hang with anyone in the NFL offensively. My concerns have to do with the overall viability of the defense and coaching staff.
If Raheem Morris can level up and Jeff Ulbrich is markedly better than what Jimmy Lake was a year ago, the Dirty Birds may have this. However, Atlanta has a nasty habit of losing the games it can never afford. It is why the Falcons are tied with Carolina for having the longest active playoff drought streak in the NFC. It should be ending soon for them, but this team faces a ton of pressure ahead of this fall.
If the Falcons fail to reach the postseason again, owner Arthur Blank could potentially clear house.
2. Los Angeles Rams
I could be totally wrong in this, but I do not trust the Los Angeles Rams at all. I feel like their postseason run from a year ago was a bit of a mirage. While I could be proven wrong again, this really does feel like their last best chance to win a Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford as their franchise quarterback. I would love to see my Dawg do it, but this team could potentially go from first to worst.
The gap between them and the rest of the division is not that wide. I could argue that all four teams in that division are capable of winning it. How many others across the NFL can honestly say that? I may be getting dangerously high on Arizona, but San Francisco could have a bounce-back season. As for Seattle, they have a high floor, but a low ceiling. Sam Darnold scares me, so I do not trust them at all.
As far as who could replace the Rams, I am feeling way too confident on who I think that could be...
Who replaces the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC playoffs?: Arizona Cardinals
This is not about Kyler Murray more than it is about who is calling the shots for the Arizona Cardinals. Jonathan Gannon may be a total dork as a head coach, but he has buy-in from his players, and seems to have a great rapport with his general manager Monti Ossenfort. Being in on the Cardinals seems quite scary, but that is mostly to do with the meddling nature of owner Michael Bidwill than anything.
No, it is not going to be by much, but if the NFC West is as much of a bloodbath as I think it could be, I would not be shocked if Arizona was the team to come out on top. It would require Marvin Harrison Jr. taking his game up a level as WR1, but that is not out of the realm of possibility. To me, the steadiest team will prevail in the NFC West. It could be Arizona, but I can see them be willing to roll the dice a bit.
Arizona could get in as a wild card team over the likes of Atlanta or Dallas, but might win the division.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Without question, this is the one pairing of the six I am the most confident happening. What have we seen this offseason that leads us to believe the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be a playoff team again? Aaron Rodgers has not been good in over three years. He will go together with Arthur Smith like lamb and tuna fish. All the while, this fanbase is losing faith in Mike Tomlin and the front office.
Since I have Baltimore as my way-too-early pick to win the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh would only be making it back in as a wild card team. While the AFC North could conceivably send three of its teams to the postseason, especially if the AFC East and North stink outside of their division winners, this feels like a two-team division. Cincinnati is a major bounce-back candidate, as Cleveland struggles.
Pittsburgh is probably going to win closer to nine games than to 11 this season with its current core.
Who replaces the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC playoffs?: Cincinnati Bengals
It has to be the Cincinnati Bengals. While they have had as chaotic of an offseason as the rival Steelers have, they did get Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins extended. Although the Trey Hendrickson debacle and Shemar Stewart disaster have me greatly concerned about the defense, they did hire Al Golden to replace an increasingly ineffective Lou Anarumo on that side of the ball. I can get behind it.
To me, this is 1000 percent about Joe Burrow taking his game to new heights. It might be his turn to win NFL MVP. Cincinnati's second-half surge resonated with me. While they failed to reach the playoffs in back-to-back years, they are still an incredibly difficult team to beat whenever Burrow is healthy enough to play all 17 games. Simply put, the Bengals have the higher ceiling over Pittsburgh.
Conversely, Cincinnati has a lower floor than the Steelers and could miss the playoffs once again.