NFL training camp is just around the corner. The Houston Texans come into this season looking to win the AFC South for the third year in a row and should be clear favorites, owing in part to a massive advantage on defense over the rest of the division.
But there are still some issues with this roster, especially along the offensive line. Add in that the team simply has too many NFL-caliber running backs and receivers to keep them all, and you get a roster situation that isn't all the way clear entering training camp.
Based on the current roster and the current needs of the team, let's take a look at what the initial 53-man roster might look like this season.
Houston Texans 53-man roster prediction entering training camp
Quarterbacks (2): C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills
Nothing to really talk about here. C.J. Stroud is your starter. Davis Mills is your backup, though he's on a contract that's very movable if injury concerns hit elsewhere in the league and someone comes calling the Texans. Rookie Graham Mertz is a candidate to go on IR this season after an ACL injury at Florida, with the plan then being for him to replace Mills as the backup in 2026. In the event Mills is traded and Mertz is on IR, expect Houston to look elsewhere for a backup rather than just sticking with the current No. 4 option, Kedon Slovis.
Running Backs (5): Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, Dare Ogunbowale, British Brooks
The first three of these names feel like locks, and Brooks is a fullback, so it really comes down to Dameon Pierce and Dare Ogunbowale battling for the final running back spot. Honestly, I think that really comes down to how Nick Chubb looks in the preseason. If it's clear that he couldn't hold up as the lead back if Mixon went down, maybe Houston keeps Pierce, who is better on early downs. But if Chubb looks capable, Ogunbowale simply provides more than Pierce on passing downs.
Wide Receivers (6): Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, John Metchie III, Braxton Berrios
This is, by far, the most competitive battle. Those first four names are pretty much locked in, but there's a huge level of mystery beyond them. John Metchie III is, theoretically, the most talented of the remaining options, but if he can't turn that into production by the preseason, he could lose out to Xavier Hutchinson or Justin Watson. I have Braxton Berrios in for his potential as a punt returner, but it's possible the team finds someone else for that role and keeps either Hutchinson or Watson as a sixth receiver. This is also working off the idea that Tank Dell will spend the 2025 season on the IR.
Tight Ends (3): Dalton Schultz, Cade Stover, Brevin Jordan
We go from the hardest position group to project to the easiest, assuming the three names above are healthy and ready to go in 2025. Rookie Luke Lachey could knock Jordan off the roster if Jordan isn't able to recover well from his torn ACL. He's a good blocker who will likely land on the team's practice squad for now.
Offensive Line (10): Tytus Howard, Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson, Jake Andrews, Juice Scruggs, Jarrett Patterson, Blake Fisher, Aireontae Ersery, Ed Ingram, Trent Brown
If Houston keeps 10 offensive linemen — and they should, since it's by far the team's weak spot and they need to try as many O-line combinations as possible — then I'm 100 percent confident it's these 10 if the team doesn't bring in any other team's preseason cast-offs. If they keep nine, it gets way more complicated, with Andrews in particular being a hard player to judge. He could be the starting center, but he could also be a preseason cut.
Defensive Line (9): Will Anderson, Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry, Derek Barnett, Dylan Horton, Tim Settle Jr., Sheldon Rankins, Mario Edwards Jr., Darrell Taylor
I would easily call this the roster position where I have the least confidence. There are some aging players like Denico Autry and Sheldon Rankins who could just have such a fall-off that they wind up as surprise cuts. There are players like Foley Fatukasi and rookie Kyonte Hamilton who I have down as cuts, but who would benefit from those veterans struggling. There's a ton of uncertainty here, especially at defensive tackle, a spot Houston entered the offseason with questions at and then didn't really answer in any concrete way.
Linebackers (5): Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris, Henry To'oTo'o, E.J. Speed, Jamal Hill
The first four names here should be locks. The fifth linebacker spot comes down to Jamal Hill and Jake Hansen, with Hill's special-teams contributions potentially being the deciding factor there. That's assuming, of course, he can show in the preseason that he can handle some situational pass rushing, as he played exclusively on special teams as a rookie.
Cornerbacks (5): Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jaylin Smith, Tremon Smith, Damon Arnette
Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter might be the league's best young corner duo. Rookie Jaylin Smith will make the roster. Beyond that, you have Tremon Smith, Damon Arnette, and UDFAs Alijah Huzzie and Keydrain Calligan battling for two spots. Smith is a veteran who plays almost exclusively on special teams, so he could be replaceable, but Houston having a safety in Jalen Pitre who can play corner too likely means Smith is safe in a special-teams-only role. That leaves Arnette fighting with two rookies for the final spot. If he can stay out of trouble off the field, he should be able to earn the role.
Safeties (5): C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Calen Bullock, Jalen Pitre, Jaylen Reed, Myles Bryant
I debated where to list Jalen Pitre. He's a safety, but he might wind up as the primary nickel corner on this team. Otherwise, this is a strong group. Look for Calen Bullock to be one of the breakout players this season for Houston. Jimmie Ward's recent arrest will be enough for the Texans to move on from the veteran.
Specialists (3): Ka'Imi Fairbairn, Tommy Townsend, Austin Brinkman
Pour one out for Jon Weeks. Houston's longest tenured player spent 15 years as the team's long snapper, but signed with the 49ers in free agency. Austin Brinkman is his replacement and will be fine in the role, but as a Texans fan, it's going to hurt to not see Weeks out there.