There has rarely been an NFL season where every team's starting quarterback position was settled before summer workouts and OTAs. The 2026 offseason is no different.
At least five teams will be evaluating multiple passers and choosing a starter ahead of Week 1. Some of those QB battles are easier to predict than others but we're going to do out best to select who will be taking the first snap these franchises.
Cleveland Browns
Is this the year Deshaun Watson reclaims his spot atop the Browns depth chart? Honestly, he may do so just by default. Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, both 2025 draft selections, were less than impressive last season when they had the opportunity to push Watson out of the equation. In fact, they were so unimpressive that Cleveland brought back 40-year-old Joe Flacco for four games.
Watson still has the stigma of multiple sexual misconduct cases hanging around his neck and is entering the final season of his five-year, $230 million contract. The Browns fully guaranteed his deal so they haven't been able to just cut ties with him in the meantime of his absence due to injury and his legal issues. That's going to influence the decision of whether to hand him the keys to the kingdom for a final ride. Since Sanders wasn't a total train wreck, he's actually a solid backup in the instance Watson can't reclaim his old form. There isn't much choice but to start Watson and then wait for him to stumble before giving Sanders a second chance.
Prediction: Watson wins — but it's a matter of time before Sanders is back in the huddle.
Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. was awkwardly thrust into a contentious dynamic with Kirk Cousins in 2024 and won out late in the year. An unfortunate knee injury after nine games in 2025 gave the reins back to Cousins which gave him the opportunity to move on to another franchise (more on that later). Once he's fully recovered, Penix will have to contend with yet another veteran reject in Tua Tagovailoa for the 2026 campaign.
This fight will probably be easier for Penix to win as he is the veteran inheriting a familiar system and Tagovailoa will have to take time to adjust to the Falcons' way of doing things. There are only two scenarios in which Penix isn't the Week 1 starter for Atlanta. If he suffers a setback in his knee recovery or if he somehow develops a ball security problem. The latter would certainly need to be drastic because Tagovailoa threw a whopping 15 interceptions last year.
Prediction: Barring a serious injury setback to Penix, Atlanta won't let Tagovailoa start just because he's a warm body.
Arizona Cardinals
If the team and Jacoby Brissett come to some agreement on a new deal or a restructured one, he will be the starter Week 1. It's that simple. But let's remove Brissett from the equation because he's decided to hold out from team activities in the meantime. That leaves backup Gardner Minshew and rookie Carson Beck to fight for the QB1 role.
Good God, what have Cardinals fans done to deserve this fate? The Beck selection was criticized across the board despite his college tenure leading two illustrious programs. He has a lot of ground to make up in the NFL to prove he's worthy of regular season playing time. Minshew sat behind Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City last year but suffered his own season-ending injury which limited his snaps since leading the Las Vegas Raiders the previous year. There is no good option here but somebody has to be under center on offense.
Prediction: Minshew as the veteran will inherit Brissett's responsibilities by default. Although I wouldn't put it past the Cardinals to let Beck drive the tank.
Minnesota Vikings
The J.J. McCarthy experiment is on life support in Minneapolis. Former Cardinals passer Kyler Murray is now wearing purple and it would be quite shocking for the Vikings to bench him before the season after handing him a one-year, $1.3 million "prove it" deal. That being said, it could've been the perfect motivation for McCarthy to find the true talent behind his, checks notes, "9" alter ego.... yikes.
Murray is looking for redemption playing for his boyhood favorite club. He probably will feel freed from the expecations of Arizona and the lack of direction the coaching staff provided him in the desert. Under head coach Kevin O'Connell, he is positioned better to thrive, especially with weapons like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings at his disposal.
Prediction: Murray will get a full year to lead the Vikings. If he succeeds, McCarthy will get shipped off but if he fails, it's he who will have to bail out his own sinking boat.
Las Vegas Raiders
This is a situation that could defy traditional rookie-veteran dynamics. The Raiders are not a team that needs their No. 1 overall pick to deliver immediately and he can afford to develop on the sideline. That being said, they also don't want to win too much too quickly (though they won't say that out loud). Enter Kirk Cousins and yet another situation similar to Atlanta.
This time, however, Cousins probably realizes he's in the twilight of his career and it's time to hand the baton off to the future standard bearer of the franchise. Cousins can keep any team competitive but the Raiders may have purposefully left their wide receiver room depleted so there aren't too many touchdowns being scored. Unless Father Time has seriously drained Cousins or Mendoza truly is a phenom, this QB battle was decided a long time ago.
Prediction: Cousins starts Week 1 but don't be surprised if Mendoza is getting reps by the time Thanksgiving comes around.
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