Predicting whether the NFL Draft's biggest risks pay off or go up in flames

The 2026 NFL Draft is in the books, but the head scratching over the most questionable picks of the early rounds has only just begun. Despite all the second-guessing since draft weekend wrapped, there are no take-backs, so now teams are stuck with their gambles — and will be hoping they pay off in the long run.

The stars who put franchises over the edge are most often found in the first round or two of the draft. For every hit, however, there's a painful miss (or two). This year's first-round selections will be doing their best to live up to the hype, but let's take a look at which could be facing a much steeper climb than the rest.

RB Jeremiyah Love, Arizona Cardinals

The Heisman Trophy finalist was always going to go in the top 10, but it felt like but the Cardinals were a team with bigger needs than running back at this point in their contention cycle. Love is being put on the "generational talent" pedestal and will have to reach David Johnson-like levels of production just to avoid being called a bust. That's going to be tough with an Arizona offensive line that finished near the bottom of the league in 2025.

That's not to say Love will be a bust in the league. If things don't work out in the desert across the next three seasons or so, hopefully he can find his way out to a more developed franchise and truly break out. But if he does live up to the days of Johnson, he could lift the Cardinals out of the NFC West basement. Love was worth the dice roll in this case.

WR Carnell Tate, Tennessee Titans

A wide receiver going this early (No. 4 overall) shocked most folks, considering there was significant debate over whether the New York Giants should be the first to snag a weapon at No. 5 overall. However, the Titans saw a can't-pass-up receiver for QB Cam Ward in Tate and skipped out on the top defensive weapons altogether. Now the pressure is on for both parties to deliver more than three wins and keep the momentum going in 2026.

Here's the thing: Draft experts can talk until they are blue in the face about positional value, but the Titans were not going to get a high-caliber weapon in Round 2, and that's why they traded back into the first to make their defensive pick (EDGE Keldrick Faulk) instead. It was take a receiver or tank in 2026 for a guy like Jeremiah Smith in the 2027 draft, and that just delays the rebuild and Ward's development. Positional value be darned, Tennessee is going to get an instant impact guy in Tate.

WR Jordyn Tyson, New Orleans Saints

Injury concerns surrounded the Arizona State product entering the draft, but those were quickly thrown out once Tennessee decided to take the only other top-tier receiver. The Saints needed to find a young playmaker to join Chris Olave and Tyler Shough. They got that in Tyson. However, will he reach the production level needed to be worth the seventh overall pick?

I think so. Olave is 25 and is going to continue to draw the bulk of attention from opposing defenses. That's going to open up space for Tyson, and he is deadly when left in man coverage. Just wait until he busts open in the secondary and Shough delivers deep shots. Even if there are still concerns over his hamstring's durability, Tyson could reach Marques Colston-level status over the course of his career in the Big Easy.

QB Ty Simpson, Los Angeles Rams

Here's where the likely busts start. The Rams are thinking ahead to find a successor for Matthew Stafford, I get it, but this was not the draft to do so given how close they are to a Super Bowl (and even if it were, they shouldn't be drafting his successor anyways). Burning a first-round pick on a quarterback with questionable abilities to begin with would land any general manager in hot water, and even head coach Sean McVay looked like he was blindsided by this selection.

Simpson made just 15 starts for the Crimson Tide and played nowhere near the level of previously drafted QBs out of his program. Arguably, he was worse than Jalen Milroe — a third-round pick in 2025 — so seeing him go 13th overall was beyond a shock. He's not going to get any playing time behind Stafford and Stetson Bennett for at least a season or two (barring a pair of season-ending injuries), which means he has little opportunity to develop. I'd be surprised if he's still in the league by the time Stafford retires.

DL Caleb Banks, Minnesota Vikings

The Florida product missed all but three games for the Gators in 2025 after suffering a foot injury in camp. Most of what teams could evaluate was based on that limited sample size and his 2024 play, yet he was still the first defensive tackle off the board. Mock drafters struggled with where to place him: Some felt he was good enough to be selected in the late first round based on potential and physical tools alone, while others thought it best to wait for Day 2. The Minnesota Vikings took the former advice after getting some good news.

Ahead of Thursday, teams received a letter stating a recent CT scan undertaken by Banks revealed that his foot is healing properly after surgery. It also confirmed that the 23-year-old is "on pace to be fully cleared for full football activities in early June." That was enough for the Vikings to roll the dice at No. 18 overall, passing on safety Dillon Thieneman — who was frequently mocked to Minnesota assuming Banks' injury would scare most teams off. I think Vikings fans are going to wish they took Thieneman instead of letting him fall to the division rival Chicago Bears.

WR De'Zhaun Stribling, San Francisco 49ers

Why did this pick feel like the Vikings taking Laquon Treadwell — another Ole Miss wideout — 23rd overall in 2016? The only difference this time is that Stribling is nowhere near hyped up as Treadwell was back then. Stribling, the 33rd overall pick, hauled in 55 balls for 811 yards and six scores for the Rebels in 2025 (after four years with Oklahoma State and Washington State prior). The 49ers are hoping that's an indication he's going to be Brandon Aiyuk or Jauan Jennings' replacement.

That's a mighty gamble, considering more promising possibilities like Denzel Boston and Germie Bernard were still available at the top of the second round. Stribling was scouted as being predictable on his routes and not quite twitchy enough to win; that's not exactly replacing Aiyuk or Jennings, who both pride themselves on getting open from unpredictable movements and their physicality. Stribling is going to need to shed his college mold and adopt a tougher shell if he's going to make it in the league.

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