Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans face pivotal decisions in the upcoming draft with both teams holding top-five selections.
- Each franchise is being urged to avoid selecting a dynamic running back prospect despite his impressive college production and potential.
- Choosing a player at a more durable position could provide long-term stability for both teams as they build competitive rosters.
This is a public service announcement for the front office of the Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans, though every front office can probably benefit from hearing it. Ready? Alright.
DO. NOT. DRAFT. A. RUNNING. BACK. IN. THE. TOP. FIVE. UNLESS. ALL. YOUR. DUCKS. ARE. IN. A. ROW. FIRST. Seriously — Jeremiyah Love is great, but those two teams in particular drafting him would be dooming themselves to mediocrity, and dooming Love to five years of losing before he could leave for greener pastures.
Why drafting a running back early is the wrong move
Since 2010, here are the running backs drafted in the first five picks of the NFL Draft, along with the number of playoff victories they had with their original franchise.
Year | Pick | Player | Playoff Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
2012 | 3 | Trent Richardson | 0 |
2016 | 4 | Ezekiel Elliott | 2 |
2017 | 4 | Leonard Fournette | 2 |
2018 | 2 | Saquon Barkley | 1 |
This isn't to insult these players individually, but instead meant to highlight that using a top-five pick on a running back doesn't really have a huge success rate from a team-building perspective. The team that did the best out of the above was Dallas with Ezekiel Elliott, but there are extenuating circumstances there — namely, Elliott was selected in the same draft class in which Dallas managed to snag Dak Prescott in the fourth round, one of the best late-round quarterback picks of the past decade. Essentially, the Elliott pick was "saved" from a "did the Cowboys manage to have some level of playoff success" perspective by the Prescott pick, and even then ... the team advanced past its first game just twice.
And even if you think your team is just "one good running back away from contending," which I would hope neither of these teams believes about themselves, you really better be sure that's the case.
Take the Raiders last year, who traded for Geno Smith and thought "okay, we're contenders, let's draft Ashton Jeanty at No. 6 overall". There were two major issues with that. The first is the one that can't be fully blamed on the Raiders, which is that Jeanty took a lot longer than anticipated to get up to NFL speed. I don't think anyone saw that coming, though it's a risk that should be considered if you're going to draft Love early. Running back hit rates are weird; just look back at the list of backs taken in the top five from earlier in the article. Barkley and Elliott were both very good NFL running backs, but Fournette was just kind of "meh," and Richardson was awful.
But the other thing, which the Raiders should have realized, is that they weren't a good team! Trading for Smith didn't somehow fix everything on a deeply flawed roster, and adding Jeanty was a luxury pick for a team that instead needed to make a more sustainable and less context-dependent impact. Vegas should have done some serious self-assessing before choosing Jeanty, and the Cardinals and Titans need to do the same thing, because neither team can afford the mistake of selecting Love.
What should the Cardinals and Titans do instead
So, what should these two teams do instead of drafting Love? It's simple: Pick a player at a position of need with a much longer shelf life than running back. No point adding one of the positions with the most longevity concerns (and that's the most dependent on the talent around them) to a roster that's still a few years away from contention.
Assuming Fernando Mendoza goes first overall (he will) and Arvell Reese goes second (he probably will), the Cardinals should be choosing between Miami offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa or Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey. Fortifying the offensive line to make life easier for my next young QB would be my move if I were the Arizona GM, and that also has the secondary benefit of making life easier for the non-Love running back who is in the backfield next season.
Then there's Tennessee, which is where most experts expect Love to go. It seems everyone putting a mock draft together thinks the Cardinals might be interested in Love, but will ultimately opt to make the smarter move, but that the Titans are just going to be like "yeah, give us the running back." Part of that is because the Titans think they have the quarterback position figured out, while the Cardinals do not.
Don't do it, though, Titans! (Or do do it, since I'm a Texans fan and would love to see the Titans make bad decisions, even though I'm also a huge Cam Ward fan. Life's about contradictions, right?)
Instead, the Titans should just draft Bailey if he's on the board. If the Cardinals take him, then look at the best linebacker prospect in the class, Sonny Styles. Either player can be a long-term fixture on Robert Saleh's defense and would be a better move than drafting a running back in the top five.
And look, I want to make something clear here: I think Love will be a very good NFL player! I just don't think a running back is worth taking that early unless you're in the very specific circumstance where things fell apart the previous season but you're sure they'll go back together the next year. Like, if the Patrick Mahomes injury were a month earlier and the Chiefs ended up drafting fifth, then maybe taking Love could have made sense. But for the Cardinals and Titans, it simply does not.
Add us as a preferred source on Google