A lot can change in the next eight weeks, but for the most part, we know which teams are going to have a shot at the postseason. Where will they get seeded in the playoffs? Buddy, that’s why they play the game. These are the games that we know will matter most for those seeds.
There are only eight weeks left in the regular season this year, and there haven’t been any teams that have completely separated themselves from the rest of their conference in either conference. That means the next two months are going to be chock-full of games that are going to be mega-impactful for playoff seeding … and it all starts this week.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks, Week 11 (vice versa in Week 16):
Any game played between the NFC West teams is going to be important. Right now, the Seahawks and the Rams are tied at the top of the division with 7-2 records, and the 49ers are right behind them with a 6-4 record…
But the division record tie-breaker is the tricky spot. Seattle is 2-1, LA is 1-1, and San Fran is 3-1. There’s a really good chance that this division comes down to that tiebreaker. This is the schedule for the rest of the season.
Week | Game |
|---|---|
11 | LA @ SEA |
11 | SF @ ARI |
14 | LA @ ARI |
16 | SEA @ LA |
18 | ARI @ LA |
18 | SF @ SEA |
Maybe one team separates itself, but it really seems like it’ll be just another season where the NFC West cannibalizes itself ... Except for Arizona, they’re the punching bag.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos, Week 11:
If the season ended today, the Chiefs and their 5-4 record wouldn’t make it to the playoffs. When we saw them last (in Week 9), they got absolutely smoked by the Bills in a 28-21 loss. It’s going to be huge for them and their playoff chances if they can come out of the bye week and get a win over a (maybe) stinky Broncos team … who are at the top of the AFC West with an 8-2 record.
Luckily, Andy Reid’s whole thing is that he’s great out of the bye week with a 22-4 record. On top of that, the Chiefs are getting their rookie left tackle, Josh Simmons, back from the personal thing that he’d been dealing with for the last month. The hope is that he’ll be able to stabilize that offensive line, which allowed a season-high pressure rate of 52.6 percent against the Bills.
This is a pretty pivotal spot for Kansas City. If they win, they’ll be back on track to get out of the hole they’re in … If they lose? Woof. That’s a whole lot of ground to make up in not a whole lot of time.
Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles, Week 11:
This is the game that never happened. The entirety of the 2024 season was supposed to lead up to the Eagles going to Detroit for the NFC Championship game … Then the Lions choked in the Divisional round of the playoffs, and the potential for a Game of the Year went kaput.
But here we are, it’s Week 11, both teams are at the top of their division, and once again competing for the top seed in the NFC.
It’s not just the head-to-head tiebreaker that makes this game important. The Buccaneers are at the top of the NFC South, and it doesn’t look like they’re going to give that up. The Eagles beat the Bucs in Week 4, which means that Philadelphia is a common opponent for both Tampa Bay and Detroit … which is yet another tiebreaker.
It’s all super convoluted, but the point is that this game isn’t just important for the Eagles and the Lions.
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs, Week 12:
The Indianapolis Colts are still the team to beat in the AFC. Sure, they have the same record as the Patriots and the Broncos, but they are easily a more complete team than either New England or Denver.
Say the Chiefs beat the Broncos in Week 11, and it’s in part because the Broncos look as bad as they did in Week 10. Sure, that’s a win, but it’s not super impressive. A win over the Colts would do a whole lot in making the Chiefs look like a real threat again, and vibes would skyrocket.
For the Colts, a win here would be over a common opponent with the Broncos and Chargers, who are also looking to nab that top spot in the AFC. In order for that to matter, the Colts would have to lose to one of the AFC South teams (won’t happen), and the Chargers would have to sweep the whole AFC West (feels like it won’t happen).
Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders, Week 12:
I’m going to knock all of these games out at once. These are the games between the teams that are in the bottom five of the entire NFL; they’re the fights for the first overall pick in the 2026 draft. We get the Browns and Raiders in Week 12, the Jets and Saints in Week 16, the Giants and Raiders in Week 17, and the Saints and Titans in Week 17.
No one wants to watch or talk about these games, so we won’t. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens, Week 14:
The AFC North has been the least sexy division in the NFL this season. The Browns are at the bottom at 2-7. Then the Bengals are at 3-6. The Ravens are bouncing back from their 1-5 start, and now their record is 4-5. The Steelers are white knuckling the throne with a 5-4 record. It’s really, really gross.
The Steelers and the Ravens see each other for the first time in Week 14, and their second matchup is in Week 18. That one could be good, but I’m not going to get juiced up for a Week 18 game that could be meaningless … and I am fully aware of how competitive every AFC North game is.
Based on Aaron Rodgers’ age and Lamar Jackson’s injury history (especially this season), it seems like whichever of these teams is going to the playoffs could be resting their quarterback.
Week 14 is a different story. That’s going to be a big turning point in the season for both Pittsburgh and Baltimore. Going into Week 14, the Ravens play the Browns, the Jets, and the Bengals; three games that should be wins. A win against the Steelers would have them sitting pretty.
The Steelers aren’t getting that kind of path. They get the Bengals, the Bears, and the Bills. That’s three games for their offense to get back to form and some decent tests for their defense. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if they dropped one or two of those.
Hell, maybe both of these teams collapse, the Bengals’ offense somehow turns it up even more, takes the top spot in the division, and this game doesn’t matter at all. That’s AFC North football, baby.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots, Week 15:
At this point, you can’t expect the Bills to win in any given week. Six weeks ago, they got spanked by the Patriots. Five weeks ago, they got spanked by the Falcons. Four weeks ago, they had a bye week to figure everything out. Three weeks ago, they ran the ball for a million yards and spanked the Panthers. Two weeks ago, they played like the best team in the NFL and spanked the Chiefs. One week ago, they forgot how to play football and got spanked by the Dolphins.
The Patriots, on the other hand, won every single game in that span. Going into Week 15, they have the Jets, the Bengals, the Giants, and a bye. They’re going to be sitting pretty at the top of the AFC East.
If the Bills have any chance of winning the division for the sixth-straight year, they’re going to have to at least beat the Patriots in Week 15.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Denver Broncos, Week 18:
Eight weeks out, the assumption is that the Broncos and the Chargers are still going to be neck and neck for the top of the AFC West. If that’s the case, you’re looking at a meaningful game between two teams that are actually playing each other.
Last season, we got that in Week 18 when the Lions played the Vikings. The Lions ended up gutting the Vikings in a 31-9 win, and it was kind of a letdown of a regular-season finale.
You’d have to hope this would be better than that, especially since the team that wins this game (in this potential situation) would end a nine-year run of the Chiefs' dominance in the division. That’s fun. Let’s manifest this situation.