Once we get to the second half of each NFL season, the league is usually segregated into three clear groups: the haves, the have-nots, and the teams fighting it out in the middle. This year is a bit different. We certainly have some cellar-dwellers who are already turning their attention to next year's draft, but for everyone else, this is about as wide open a race for the Lombardi Trophy as we've seen.
Every team with a pulse believes they have a chance right now, because there's no dominant team. Just consider that the three teams with the league's best record are the 8-2 Broncos, Colts and Patriots, yet none of that trio is ranked in the top six when it comes to Super Bowl odds. That's due to each of those teams being "new money," so to speak, while perennial contenders like the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills have faced more difficulties than in years past.
The AFC has been flipped topsy-turvy, while the NFC is truly anyone's game. Nine teams are currently above .500, and six of those are in the NFC North and NFC West. Which one will represent the conference in the Super Bowl? That answer seems to change by the week.
With the stretch run approaching, we thought we'd look at each of the top 10 Super Bowl betting favorites as of now and pinpoint a fatal flaw that could be their undoing in January. Every team has at least one, which means that matchups are going to be more important than ever this postseason. Run into the one team capable of exposing your warts and football season could turn into family vacation time in the blink of an eye.
Two things to note: First, the Patriots might have the inside track on the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and yet they have only the 11th-best Super Bowl odds. Take from that what you will, but that's why they're not here. Second, all odds have been taken from FanDuel.
Denver Broncos (+1800): Slow offensive starts
The Broncos may have the best top-to-bottom defense in the league. Patrick Surtain II won Defensive Player of the Year last year, while Nik Bonitto is the best pass-rusher that casual fans may not know. That gives them an edge over every other AFC contender, but the other side of the ball is where Broncos fans need to worry.
Bo Nix is like a vintage car. It takes him a while to get started up, but once he gets going, he runs pretty good. The Broncos have been able to survive his repeated slow starts so far, but that's not a recipe or success in the playoffs. Nix has led some inspired fourth-quarter comebacks, including against quality defenses like the Texans and Eagles. For whatever reason though, he's struggled to get going before then, even in the third quarter, where Denver's 2.6-point average ranks ahead of only the Saints and Titans. To get to the Super Bowl and win it, it's going to take three or four complete games.
Green Bay Packers (+1600): Jordan Love
Packers fans haven't yet pushed that big red panic button on Jordan Love, but they've flipped the cover up and their cheese-covered pointer finger is hovering just over it. Green Bay has all the ingredients a Super Bowl-caliber team could want — a dominant pass-rusher in Micah Parsons, a punishing run game led by Josh Jacobs and an ability to win on the road — but we just don't know if Love has what it takes to lead this team to the promised land.
The last two games haven't inspired much confidence, as Green Bay has scored 20 total points at home against the Panthers and Eagles in two losses. Love failed to throw a touchdown pass in either of those games, and while he threw for a more-than-respectable 273 yards against Carolina, he also threw a pick into triple coverage. Perhaps not coincidentally, breakout star tight end Tyler Kraft was hurt in that game, and Love hasn't looked the same since.
Kraft is out for the year, but nominal No. 1 wideout Jayden Reed should be returning soon from the broken collarbone he suffered in Week 2. Packers fans have to hope that's enough for Love to put up some points, because right now the defense is pulling its weight but the offense isn't.
Baltimore Ravens (+1500): Lack of receiving options
The Ravens looked dead in the water at 1-5, but they've rolled off three straight as the Steelers have faltered to get within a game of the AFC North lead. Getting Lamar Jackson back has been huge, but Tyler Huntley deserves a ton of credit for getting a win against the red-hot Bears to get this streak started.
Baltimore's defense was brutal to start the year, but they're much healthier now, and it shows. Since their bye in Week 7, they've yet to allow 20 points. That area of concern appears to be fixed for now, but the lack of trustworthy receivers for Lamar to throw to is still very much a problem. Zay Flowers leads the team with 625 yards in nine games, but nobody else, tight ends included, even has 250.
DeAndre Hopkins and Rashad Bateman are each averaging under two catches per game. Take out Mark Andrews' six-catch, 91-yard explosion against the Lions in Week 3, and he's yet to go over 34 yards in another game all year.
The Ravens offense will be dangerous as long as Lamar and Derrick Henry are in the backfield, but if they have nobody to catch the ball, that won't be enough.
Indianapolis Colts (+1000): Turnovers
The Colts have feasted on an easy schedule, but that's more of a red flag than a fatal flaw. The pass defense is one cause for concern, especially with so many talented quarterbacks in the AFC. That's worth keeping an eye on, but the most pressing concern is that even though Halloween just passed, Daniel Jones is showing all the signs of turning into a pumpkin.
Jones' renaissance since winning the starting quarterback job over Anthony Richardson had some people whispering that he could get MVP votes. The Colts lead the league in points scored, and for the most part, Jones has been a big part of that. Jonathan Taylor is easily the MVP of this offense and maybe even the whole league, as he's putting up a Walter Payton kind of season.
Jones has regressed to his old turnover-happy self in the last two weeks. He threw three picks and fumbled three times in a loss to the Steelers, then only survived a one-pick, three-fumble performance against the Falcons because Taylor went off for 244 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, including the winner in overtime.
Jones has to take much better care of the ball, or this fairy tale season will be over without a happy ending.
Seattle Seahawks (+950): Late-season Sam Darnold
Damn the Seahawks look good. Mike Macdonald has turned this defense into a ferocious facsimile of his best units from his days as Ravens defensive coordinator, while on the other side of the ball, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the most productive and uncoverable receiver in the league. Sam Darnold leads the league in QBR, a remarkable achievement considering he's on a new team with a new offense.
There really are no outward signs that the Seahawks are anything but an elite all-around team. They clearly know it, as they made one of the smartest win-now moves of the trade deadline by picking up deep threat Rashid Shaheed from the Saints. Only twice have they been beaten, and in both those games, they held the lead with under two minutes to go.
Darnold was awesome for the Vikings last year, and they're really missing him now. The reason they let him go though is the same reason the Seahawks need to worry. When the games mattered the most last year, Darnold didn't come through. Not only that, his Week 18 performance in a winner-take-all showdown with the Lions and his Wild Card Round game against the Rams were two of his worst three performances of the season.
Will Darnold step up when the lights are brightest with his new team? We'll find out, but until then, Seahawks fans will be nervous.
Buffalo Bills (+950): Run defense
The Bills have Josh Allen, and that's enough to beat most teams. They're also getting a Pro Bowl-level season from James Cook. I thought of putting the Chiefs as the Bills fatal flaw since they can't get past Kansas City in the playoffs, but there's no guarantee those teams will meet again given how wide open the playoff field is.
Instead, we need to talk about the Bills' run defense. In short, it is not good. Only the Giants and Bengals have given up more yards per game on the ground, and Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson and De'Von Achane have all gone for 169 yards or more. They've also struggled to contain the two best mobile quarterbacks they've faced, Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye, both through the air and on the ground.
Having Josh Allen only goes so far when he's stuck on the sideline watching another clock-eating drive from the opposing team. Buffalo also seems to be going in the wrong direction, as they've lost three of five to fall well behind the Patriots in the AFC East. They need to turn things around before yet another season ends in disappointment.
Detroit Lions (+850): Inconsistency
We're getting up to the betting favorites, which means that obvious flaws are becoming harder to identify. The Lions are a team that checks off most of the boxes for what you'd want in a Super Bowl winner. They have the widest range of offensive playmakers in the league, plus Pro Bowl talent on the defense.
What they don't have is consistency. When they laid an egg in Week 1 to a Packers team that was riding high over its recent acquisition of Micah Parsons, it was understandable. Four straight wins and an avalanche of points followed, seemingly getting the season back on track. Since then though, Detroit is just 2-2. They got beaten soundly by the Chiefs, who've been a model of inconsistency themselves this year, and they shockingly lost at home to JJ McCarthy and the Vikings two weeks ago.
Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties from new offensive coordinator John Morton last week. The change worked, as the Lions hung 44 points on the Commanders, but time will tell if Campbell is able to recreate the magic he had with Ben Johnson, or if he lit up Washington's defense because that's what everyone is doing these days.
To Campbell's credit, his team always bounces back from a loss by winning its next game. In the playoffs though, there are no second chances.
Los Angeles Rams (+750): Puka Nacua's health
I'm going to be honest, the Rams look like best team in football right now. Matthew Stafford could be on his way to his first MVP, especially if he keeps his record-setting run of four touchdown, zero interception games going. Kyren Williams is one of the league's few workhorse backs, and the defense is one of only five that is ranked in the top 10 in both rushing yards allowed and sacks per game.
The Rams' Super Bowl hopes and dreams may well rest on the health of Puka Nacua. The star receiver is as good as anyone in the league when healthy — he's equally effective in the red zone as he is on deep routes or making a tough third-down catch over the middle. But he's had a lot of trouble staying on the field the past two years.
Puka missed five games last year with a PCL sprain. He sprained his ankle against the Ravens earlier this year and sat out the following week against the Jaguars, then hurt his ribs against the Saints three weeks later and missed most of the second half.
Part of the problem is workload. Stafford peppered Puka with an unsustainable number of targets earlier in the year, but to his and the Rams' credit, they've dialed it back and diversified the offense recently. Puka averaged more than 12 targets per game in the first five weeks, but after missing time against the Ravens and Jags, had only six balls thrown his way last week against the 49ers.
The Seahawks aren't going away in the NFC West race, so Sean McVay will need to strike the right balance between maximizing Puka's contributions and keeping him healthy for the most critical games of the year.
Philadelphia Eagles (+600): Team chemistry
The Eagles feel like a powder keg that's about to blow any second, but somehow they keep on winning, even though it's rarely pretty, such as in this past Monday's 10-7 snoozefest over the Packers. No team in the league has a bigger lead in its own division, which might say more about the sorry state of the NFC East than it does about the defending Super Bowl champs.
AJ Brown continues to air his frustration with the stagnant state of the passing game, while other than a monster day against his former team three weeks ago, Saquon Barkley hasn't gotten going in any meaningful way. Jalen Hurts seems to be phased by none of it, which seems to be a good thing.
It should be pointed out that the Eagles dealt with this same kind of discontent last year, but they cruised through the playoffs and won the whole damn thing anyway. Maybe they're like one of those families that isn't happy unless they're screaming at each other over the dinner table, or maybe it's only a matter of time until the whole thing unravels. Who knows if they can keep it together long enough to repeat, but we'll be anxiously awaiting the tell-all book in the meantime.
Kansas City Chiefs (+600): Record away from Arrowhead
Last year's Chiefs run was one of the most inexplicable seasons we've ever seen. It felt like every week, Kansas City's game came down to the wire, and every week, they would voodoo their way to a one-score win.
Even though they didn't look like the dominant Chiefs teams of old, we all collectively shrugged and assumed that with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, things would work out. At 15-2, things mostly did, until the Eagles finally exposed them in the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs have already doubled their loss total this year, but most watchers agree that they actually look like a better team than they did last year. The offense is more explosive, and Mahomes is doing Mahomes things again. Why then are they only 5-4?
The answer is that they've been a mess away from Arrowhead. K.C. has played three true road games, and they opened the season in Brazil against the Chargers. In those games, they're 1-3, with only an uninspiring slog of a win over the Russell Wilson-led Giants to keep them from being winless when they don't get to commute from home.
It gets worse. Thanks to their 5-4 start, there's almost no way that the road to the Super Bowl will go through Kansas City as it usually has in the past. The Broncos are 2.5 games up in the division, the Chargers are 1.5 games up too and own that head-to-head win, and two other AFC division leaders are 8-2. It's exceedingly likely that if the Chiefs even make the playoffs, they'll have to win three straight road games to get to Levi's Stadium.
It's a testament to what the Chiefs have built that despite all this, they still have the best odds to win it all. If they're going to do it, though, they're going to have to take the road less traveled.