Ranking all 32 NFL coaches by the hotness of their seats, from John Harbaugh to Aaron Glenn

This is an interesting year for the NFL. For the first time since 2022 and just the fifth time ever, 10 teams will have new head coaches this season. Most would assume they are going into the season in a safe position, but here’s the thing about so many coaching hires: not everyone is going to be safe. There were likely some teams that felt they didn’t get the coaches they wanted. 

And then there are the coaches who are on the hottest seats. Certain teams might have seen the landscape and decided to keep the coach they knew and wait another season. With Mike Tomlin hovering over the league, teams could make a bold move midseason if things don’t start off well. Let’s take a look at every coaching situation and who is most and least likely to make a move. 

32. John Harbaugh, New York Giants

John Harbaugh is going nowhere this season. Short of a major scandal, the New York Giants are committed to him for the long term. That’s why they just gave Joe Schoen an extension. He’s committed to getting out of the way. The on-field results might not be perfect this season, and the Giants would be fine with that as long as there’s growth from Jaxson Dart. 

31. Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears

It’s a similar situation for Ben Johnson and the Chicago Bears, even though he has a year under his belt. Short of something insane, Johnson is going to keep his job. The Bears are building a contender around Johnson and Caleb Williams. They are built to go hand-in-hand. There was immense growth in Chicago last season, especially on offense. He’s not going anywhere. 

30. Mike MacDonald, Seattle Seahawks

It might sound wild that the head coach who won the Super Bowl isn’t at the top of this list, but the Seattle Seahawks lost offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. We still think it would be near impossible for Mike Macdonald to lose his job. He brought a culture of winning back to Seattle after a few feckless years under Pete Carroll towards the end. Seattle is building for Macdonald.

29. Sean Payton, Denver Broncos

Sean Payton is another extremely safe head coach. The Denver Broncos owe their entire personality to the Payton era. They came within a snowstorm and Bo Nix's injury from going to the Super Bowl. We feel like the Broncos were a much better matchup for the Seahawks, and they could be the defending champions right now. Payton has this team on the right track as long as Nix is the right quarterback.

28. Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers

Similar to Payton without the championship legacy in the NFL, Jim Harbaugh is building the Chargers in his image. Despite the Chargers’ failure to beat the Patriots in the playoffs, Harbaugh has this team in a constant state of contention. He has back-to-back 11-win seasons after his return from college. This is as successful a coaching hire as we’ve seen in a long time. Now, he needs to take the next step towards Super Bowl contention, but even if he doesn’t, he’s nowhere near a firing. 

27. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay is one of the most respected and enamored head coaches in the NFL. While we’ve always heard the rumors of a broadcasting career pulling McVay away, he seems committed to the Rams in the long term. Interestingly, drafting Ty Simpson may have given McVay even more job security. He has to navigate this situation, and giving Matthew Stafford a little more money helps thing. The Rams want to be continued contenders, and they will start the season as one of the Super Bowl contenders. 

26. Kevin Stefanski, Atlanta Falcons
25. Jesse Minter, Baltimore Ravens
24. Joe Brady, Buffalo Bills
23. Klint Kubiak, Las Vegas Raiders
22. Robert Salah, Tennessee Titans
21. Mike LaFleur, Arizona Cardinals

We’re just pairing all these coaching hires together. All of these coaches are brand new to their roles and will have a long leash to make mistakes. We ranked Kevin Stefanski as the safest as he’s considered one of the bigger hires of the offseason. He was the top candidate available prior to Harbaugh getting let go in Baltimore. His replacement could go 0-17, and Jesse Minter might still survive. The Ravens don’t want to take that on the chin. Joe Brady is an interesting candidate in Buffalo, but he’s definitely getting a leash to try things out with Josh Allen. Tom Brady is very excited about Klint Kubiak. 

20. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Shanahan should be very safe. The San Francisco 49ers are always impacted by injuries, but Shanahan has been able to get the most out of this roster. He’s not going anywhere. Despite being there for so long without a Super Bowl (he was hired in 2017), this is still one of the best coaches in the league and the Niners know that. He’s signed through the 2027 season, which is all that is giving us pause, but an extension might be on the horizon. 

19. Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars

In a shrewd move, the Jacksonville Jaguars stole Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Cohen to make him their head coach last offseason. The move worked, as Cohen got the most we’ve seen from Trevor Lawrence in years and made the playoffs. Their 13 wins are the most they’ve had in the 21st century. Cohen is safe this season, even if they take a step back.

18. Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions

This one was really hard. Dan Campbell should be safe, but the Detroit Lions did fail expectations last season. He has instilled a culture that has never been associated with Lions football, but we have to acknowledge that they went from Super Bowl contender to missing the playoffs. This team is too talented to miss the playoffs again, and we think Campbell is still the right coach for this squad. He is very safe for now, but if they fail to make the playoffs again, we could be having a very different conversation next offseason. 

17. Mike McCarthy, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers don’t fire head coaches. They held onto Tomlin for years longer than most expected. They’ve basically had the same three coaches for as long as anyone can remember. Mike McCarthy doesn’t seem to fit that same mold. He always felt like a guy who is there to keep the lights on, but he’ll do more than that. He had a successful run in Green Bay, and his Cowboys tenure might be better than we remember it, but he has a ceiling. Pairing with a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers could go well, or it could be a disaster. Would the Steelers make a move on someone who leads a disaster? They might.

16. Kellen Moore, New Orleans Saints

The New Orleans Saints are in a very good spot, very surprisingly. We all thought the Saints would be one of the worst teams in the league last season. Instead, they were in contention for the NFC South. To be fair, everyone was in the running for the South until the very end, but that’s beyond the point. The Saints found their quarterback in Tyler Shough, and Kellen Moore is the perfect coach for him. This connection is very safe, but there is a possibility of disaster. If the Saints take the biggest step back, the conversation around Moore will change. 

15. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs

Andy Reid was the safest head coach in almost every iteration of this list that we’ve done in the past. Then, the Chiefs missed the playoffs, and Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL. After going to three straight Super Bowls, the Chiefs' dynasty might be over. If that’s the case, does it make sense for the Chiefs to hold onto a 68-year-old head coach? Reid is almost 70 years old. Many believe he is going to hold onto his coaching gig until someone forces him out, but the Chiefs might be looking to their next phase of life with Mahomes at the helm. Reid isn’t Bill Belichick. He got to this dynasty too late in his football life. Now, it might be time to look at a younger head coach who can build with Mahomes. For now, Reid gets the year to show that the game has not passed him by.

14. David Canales, Carolina Panthers

Dave Canales being in the “bottom” half of this list is interesting because it shows where we are as a league when it comes to coaches. We don’t think his seat is hot, but we have to take into account this is the Carolina Panthers we’re talking about. Since Ron Rivera was fired in 2019, the Panthers, including interim hires, have had six head coaches. Four of the previous five coaches were in the seat for fewer than 13 games. Canales has the Panthers moving in the right direction and even won the NFC South last season, but if Bryce Young regresses or the team fails in the standings, anything can happen.

13. DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans

Again, we think DeMeco Ryans should be relatively safe this season, but we have to acknowledge that he’s been the head coach for four years, and the Texans' offense still leaves a ton to be desired. We get glimpses, whether it’s from Nico Collins or Woody Marks; there are moments when it looks like they have the pieces in place. Unfortunately, C.J. Stroud might be a problem. If he confirms himself to be a problem and the Texans fall towards the top of the draft, the brass there might decide to clean house and start over. It’s an unlikely scenario, but we’re preparing for anything in a year with 10 new coaches. 

12. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers

In your head, put a line below DeMeco Ryans and above Matt Lafleur. Things change when you come across that line. That’s the difference between “pretty cold” seats and “legitimately warm” seats. Matt LaFleur could very easily be let go this season if he doesn’t have the Packers performing at a high level. The Packers were supposed to be one of the NFC’s top contenders when they traded multiple first-round picks for Micah Parsons. Instead, they finished 9-7-1. Parsons suffered a major injury. Jordan Love didn’t take a step forward. If the Packers put forth another mediocre season, he’s probably out the door. 

11. Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings

Kevin O’Connell’s future as a head coach hinges on his choice at the quarterback position. Right now, he has JJ McCarthy and Kyler Murray fighting for the starting position. The Packers had a chance to have Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, or Daniel Jones last year, all quarterbacks who excelled, and one who won the Super Bowl. They went with McCarthy, and it led them to missing the playoffs. If O’Connell makes the wrong decision this season and they waste another year of Justin Jefferson’s prime, it could cost KOC his job. 

10. Jeff Hafely, Miami Dolphins

This has nothing to do with Jeff Hafely as a head coach or a candidate. He’s facing the reality that the Miami Dolphins have just gutted their roster and now ask Malik Willis to be the starting quarterback. They traded Jaylen Waddle and cut Tyreek Hill. Their top receiver is… Malik Washington or Tutu Atwell. This is a rough scene in Miami. We’ve seen before that head coaches go into situations as a lame duck. This feels very similar. If the Dolphins win very few games and they get the first-overall pick, would they want to use that leverage to get a top head coach? We don’t think they’d let Jeff Hafely get in the way of that.  

9. Todd Monken, Cleveland Browns

Todd Monken was the one hire this offseason that had the most people scratching their heads. He started his coaching career in the 1980s, but this is his first NFL head coaching gig. He did have a short stint at Southern Miss before returning to the NFL in 2015. Since then, he’s been a long-time offensive coordinator, including for the Browns in 2019. He was most recently the coordinator for the Ravens, but he was ousted alongside Harbaugh. Monken has a huge task ahead of him, and word on the street is he’s leaning towards starting Deshaun Watson at QB. Cleveland is still messy, and he has the highest chance of being one and done. 

8. Brian Schottenheimer, Dallas Cowboys

Brian Schottenheimer always felt like an odd choice for head coach after the Dallas Cowboys fired Mike McCarthy. However, he won over some critics with how the Cowboys played for most of last season. Dak Prescott was very good, and Javonte Williams turned into a star at the running back position. However, the defense was awful. They were 30th in yards allowed. If they want to truly compete, he has to get better on that side of the ball, and the record speaks for itself. He needs to finish over .500 to keep his seat comfortable. 

7. Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders

Dan Quinn went from as safe as anyone in the league after Jayden Daniels’ rookie season to a coach whose seat is now considered progressively hotter. Washington was one of the big disappointments last season, finishing 5-12 with Marcus Mariota throwing more passes than Daniels. The worries around Daniels’ injury history are concerning, and Quinn needs a good contingency plan. We’ve seen too many times a head coach go “down with the ship” when their star quarterback gets injured. Quinn needs to do way better than five wins for an ownership group that is desperate to list a winner in their portfolio.

6. Nick Siriani, Philadelphia Eagles

Remember that line we put above Matt LaFleur that changed the heat of the seat? These next seats range from extremely hot to scorching. And we start with an interesting name. Nick Sirianni won the Philadelphia Eagles a Super Bowl. He brought this team to constant contention. However, he also seems to be holding the strings on the 2026 NFL version of the Bronx Zoo. There are constant rumors coming out of Philadelphia about one player or another being upset with the team, a quarterback that doesn’t seem to have the confidence of the locker room, and a coaching staff that seems to experience yearly turnover for one reason or another. Through it all, Sirianni, like the Tush Push, has prevailed. Eventually, that narrative gets old, and winning isn’t enough to save your job.

5. Mike Vrabel , New England Patriots

This is a shocking turn of events, but there’s a non-zero chance that New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel doesn’t coach the team’s Week 1 game against the Seattle Seahawks. The rumors surrounding Vrabel and former reporter Diana Russini have been the salacious story of the offseason. It caused Vrabel to miss the last day of the NFL Draft, and he’s seen this story grow and grow. This is a coach who took his team to the Super Bowl in his first season as head coach, but this scandal is not going away. Add to the fact that many believe the Patriots are going to face serious regression due to a first-place schedule and mounting expectations, and this could spell doom for Vrabel. 

4. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals

In a normal world, Zac Taylor would be at the top of this list. The Cincinnati Bengals are built to be perennial Super Bowl contenders. Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and Ja’Marr Chase is probably the best wide receiver in the league. Despite this, the Bengals have missed the playoffs for three seasons in a row and won just six games last year. Cincinnati was an absolute mess last year, and Burrow’s injury only exemplified the issues. The defense is still bad, but Dexter Lawrence should help. If the Bengals don’t win the AFC North, with new coaches at literally every division rival, it might be curtains for Taylor. However, since this is Cincy and they are notoriously cheap, they could keep him just so they don’t have to pay two head coaches. 

3. Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts

Shane Steichen has been the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts for three seasons, going into his fourth. He has not made the playoffs yet. Last season, it felt like a formality. It was so clear they were making the playoffs that the Colts traded two first-round picks for Sauce Gardner. Then, Daniel Jones got hurt, and the Colts finished the season losing their last seven games. We’re honestly shocked Steichen survived that, but the Irsays are giving him one more chance. Even with Jones returning off an Achilles tear, Steichen has a very short leash. 

2. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fanbase hasn’t been thrilled with Todd Bowles for a while, but they kept winning. As they say, winning cures everything. They developed Baker Mayfield into a legitimate starting quarterback. They kept the band together from the 2020-21 Super Bowl winner, but there was a major shift in 2026. Mike Evans left to sign with the San Francisco 49ers. Lavonte David retired. The Bucs are transitioning to the next era, but they have the same coach who blew their NFC South lead last season. Bowles won’t survive another year where he doesn’t win his division with how this team is built. 

1. Aaron Glenn, New York Jets

Aaron Glenn was awful as a head coach last season. It was shocking that he survived the performance. However, credit where credit is due, he was learning throughout the season. Now, the Jets hired Glenn for a reason coming from the Detroit Lions. He has defensive acumen that they can use. Still, this is a talented team that is missing direction. The quarterback is… Geno Smith. Wait, did we go back in time? There are some who are talking themselves into the Jets, but don’t buy the hype. Glenn is by far the most likely head coach to be fired, and if things go wrong quickly, he might not make it out of September. 

More NFL news and analysis:

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow