The Denver Broncos made headlines with their decision to select Bo Nix 12th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, making him the sixth quarterback taken before the midway point of the first round. After a dominant senior season at Oregon, Nix was trending up in NFL circles, but few earnestly viewed him as a top-12 pick. Almost nobody did, except for Sean Payton.
In fact, Payton basically led the Bo Nix bandwagon. In a new excerpt from Seth Wickersham's book American Kings: The Biography of a Quarterback, it was revealed just how badly Payton wanted Nix. The six-year college vet aced Payton's specific formula for evaluating quarterbacks — one that compares the volume of bad plays (turnovers, interceptions, etc.) against total dropbacks, effectively charting a golf-like system where the lowest scores are the best.
Patrick Mahomes once aced the very same test, and Payton made a concerted (but ultimately unsuccessful) effort to land him in New Orleans. Nix put up even better numbers than Mahomes. Here is how the formula is outlined in the book:
"Attempts: 878 Sacks: 10 (1.1%) Fumbles: 0 (0%) Interceptions: 10 (1.1%) Completion percentage: 74.8 Average: 2.3."
That 2.3 from Nix was easily the best score among top quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft. The worst score among the six first-round quarterbacks? You guessed it: No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams.
Sean Payton's formula put Broncos QB Bo Nix over No. 1 pick Caleb Williams
Williams' final tally in Payton's formula was a cool 17.5 — higher than Drake Maye (10.5), J.J. McCarthy (7.8), all of 'em. By a lot. And so far, it's starting to look like Payton was a bit of a genius. Whereas Nix vastly outperformed expectations and finished second in Rookie of the Year polling, Williams led the NFL with 68 sacks and had defensive coordinators saying stuff like this:
Caleb Williams entered the 2024 draft as the consensus No. 1 quarterback.
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) August 11, 2025
He enters his second season facing questions about his ability to process and play quickly. pic.twitter.com/U1msgeWlt4
We ultimately don't know what Sean Payton would've done with the No. 1 pick — follow conventional wisdom and bet on Caleb Williams, or opt for the stellar efficiency (and lower ceiling) of Bo Nix? We may never know for sure. But Payton did know he would take criticism for selecting Nix at No. 12. He just didn't care.
"I'll get criticized for taking him at twelve," Payton told Wickersham. "I don't give a f---. Three years from now is what I'm worried about."
Per Wickersham, Payton loved Williams arm strength, but had concerns about his processing speed. Payton also believed Williams had "too many easy completions left on the field, open receivers that Williams fails to spot quickly."
With Nix, Payton ultimately didn't have the same level of concern.
Time will tell if Sean Payton was right about Bo Nix and Caleb Williams
While Payton's formula is a good tool — and a very clear indicator of how one of our greatest QB coaches processes the game — it does not tell the whole story of a quarterback. Nix played in a very simple, QB-friendly scheme at Oregon, where he was asked to get the ball out quickly and hammer the short-to-intermediate range, rather than pushing the football downfield. Williams played in less structure at USC and experienced the natural highs and lows inherent to that freedom. He made mesmerizing plays with his legs and uncorked long-range missiles on the move, but he also took more sacks and threw more interceptions.
As fate would have it, Williams also played with less structure and worse teammates than Nix did in Denver. Whereas Payton clearly put Nix on the advanced track, Williams was held back by rampant organizational incompetence. If he's still taking damn near 70 sacks with Ben Johnson at the helm, then we can panic. But I'm skepticial that will be the case.
Williams has a far better arm than Nix. He can generate more opportunities with his legs. The upside is substantial. Whether he can ramp up his processing speed enough to eventually surpass the more analytically-inclined Nix, well... it will all come out in the wash.