The Pittsburgh Steelers don't have much to play for in Week 5, in part because they're on a bye week. Mike Tomlin's job for this week is to keep the Steelers fresh, and prepare for their Week 6 opponent, the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have a fierce defensive front, which Aaron Rodgers has two weeks to prepare for. That front is headlined by Myles Garrett, the former AP defensive player of the year and rival to his Steelers counterpart, TJ Watt.
Through four games, Rodgers performance has been met with mixed reviews. Tomlin is happy, if only because this Steelers team is 3-1 and ahead by a game in the AFC North. That division advantage could increase while Pittsburgh isn't playing, as the Bengals are without Joe Burrow and the Ravens could miss Lamar Jackson.
The baseline stats tell one story – Rodgers has completed nearly 70 percent of his throws and has eight touchdowns to just three interceptions. However, a deeper dive could concern some Steelers fans. Pro Football Focus graded Rodgers as the worst quarterback in the NFL through four weeks.
What advanced stats say about Aaron Rodgers, Steelers performance
PFF knocks Rodgers for many of the reasons the Steelers prefer him under center. The 41-year-old makes quick decisions because he's had to behind an inconsistent offensive line. Per PFF, Rodgers has the lowest time to throw in the NFL (2.52) and the lowest average depth of target (5.2 yards) this season. Those numbers could come back to haunt the Steelers this season, especially against secondaries that thrive in press coverage. For now, though, it's tough to argue Rodgers has been THAT bad, especially in a division featuring quarterbacks like Jake Browning, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco/Dillon Gabriel. For once, I might actually agree with FS1 talking head Colin Cowherd.
“Not to be obnoxious to PFF, but I’m gonna go with no. He’s not the worst,” Cowherd said. “He may win the division because currently, in the AFC North, the starters are Jake Browning, Dillon Gabriel, and Cooper Rush.”
PFF argues that many of Rodgers decisions are essentially made more him before the snap. However, I'd suggest the alternative – that Rodgers is forced into quick throws because doesn't have time to go through his progressions. With that in mind, it makes his basic counting stats and the Steelers offensive efficiency (at times) even more impressive. Rodgers is not lighting the league on fire, by any means, but the truth is likely somewhere in the middle. He isn't a top-10 quarterback in the NFL anymore. That's fine, and the Steelers aren't asking him to be.
Is Aaron Rodgers built to silence Myles Garrett and elite pass rushers?
Rodgers best game of the season came against the Minnesota Vikings in Dublin last week. He was asked to make pinpoint passes quickly, and he did so with precise accuracy. Per NextGen stats, Rodgers average time to throw was around 2.17 seconds. It was his quickest mark of the season, and proof of just how well he understands Arthur Smith's offense at this point in the season.
If the Steelers are going to contain some of the best pass-rushers in the league like a Myles Garrett starting in Week 6, Rodgers will have to do more of the same. Garrett's average time per QB pressure is between 2-to-3 seconds, which is one of the best rates in the NFL. That should come as no surprise to anyone who has watched Garrett on a weekly basis.
Pittsburgh cannot hope to stop Garrett, but merely to contain him. Last week, the Steelers moved top targets like DK Metcalf around far more often than they had in the first three games of the season. In fact, Metcalf made his most impactful catch of the season – a long touchdown in Dublin – out of the slot.
Garrett is impossible to plan for and an absolute monster at the line of scrimmage. The Steelers only hope to stop him from creating the maximum amount of havoc is to get the ball out quickly and hope their best targets like Metcalf and Jonnu Smith can create enough separation in that time period. It helps to have a solid rushing attack as well, which the Steelers had in Week 4 against the Vikings thanks to Kenneth Gainwell and Kaleb Johnson. The return of Jaylen Warren could go a long way as well.
The difference between two and three seconds isn't much off the field, but that short timespan can make or break Rodgers efficiency against a player of Garrett's caliber.