The New England Patriots were first to punch their ticket to Super Bowl 60, defeating the Bo Nix-less Broncos in a first-sunny, then-rapidly-snowy Denver on Sunday in the AFC Championship Game. It feels like we just got used to the Pats not being in the Super Bowl every year, but now we're right back here with Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel. As fate would have it too, they'll face an infamous foe for the Lombardi Trophy, the Seattle Seahawks, who toppled the Rams in a thriller to end conference championship Sunday.
New England, of course, triumphed over Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX back in 2015, the unforgettable game in which Pete Carroll elected to have Russell Wilson throw on the goal-line rather than handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch. But maybe the odds will be more in their favor this time around with a new regime, roster, and feel around Sam Darnold and Company. As for the odds themselves, the Patriots were going to be underdogs to either Seattle or LA, but let's dive into the lines, as well as what fans should know about these teams set up to meet in Santa Clara.
Super Bowl 60 spread, total and more: Patriots are the underdogs
- Matchup: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots
- Point Spread: Seahawks -4.5 (-105)
- Over/Under Total: 46.5
- Moneyline: Seattle -230, New England +194
The Seahawks opened on as 4.5-point favorites over the Patriots on FanDuel Sportsbook. Seattle has been favored in both of their postseason games to this point, the same of which has been true of the Patriots as well. However, with the Lombardi Trophy on the line, it'll be the Seahawks who are expected to win according to the oddsmakers.
What's interesting, however, is that FanDuel also had hypothetical look-ahead lines for the Patriots facing both the Seahawks and the Rams, which came off the board once the NFC Championship Game started. At that time, oddsmakers has both Seattle and Los Angeles as 3.5-point favorites. That has obvious jumped now for the actual point spread. One has to wonder if Denver's defense (pre-snow) slowing down Drake Maye and Company had anything to do with that line movement.
Also in terms of prognostication, the 46.5-point total does feel a bit lofty, considering the defensive prowess of both of these teams.
Super Bowl odds from the past 10 years with results
Super Bowl and Matchup | Point Spread | Over/Under Total | Final Score |
|---|---|---|---|
LIX (2025), Eagles vs. Chiefs | Chiefs -1.5 | 48.5 | Eagles 40, Chiefs 22 |
LVIII (2024), 49ers vs. Chiefs | 49ers -2 | 47.5 | Chiefs 25, 49ers 22 |
LVII (2023) Chiefs vs. Eagles | Eagles -2 | 50 | Chiefs 38, Eagles 35 |
LVI (2022) Rams vs. Bengals | Rams -4 | 49.5 | Rams 23, Bengals 20 |
LV (2021) Buccaneers vs. Chiefs | Chiefs -3 | 56 | Buccaneers 31, Chiefs 9 |
LIV (2020) Chiefs vs. 49ers | Chiefs -1.5 | 53 | Chiefs 31, 49ers 20 |
LIII (2019) Patriots vs. Rams | Patriots -2.5 | 55.5 | Patriots 13, Rams 3 |
LII (2018) Eagles vs. Patriots | Patriots -4.5 | 49 | Eagles 41, Patriots 33 |
LI (2017) Patriots vs. Falcons | Patriots -3 | 57.5 | Patriots 34, Falcons 28 |
50 (2016) Broncos vs. Panthers | Panthers -4.5 | 43 | Broncos 24, Panthers 10 |
There are some pretty interesting trends when you look over the last 10 years of Super Bowl odds in relation to the final results. That starts with the simple fact that the underdog has lifted the Lombardi Trophy in each of the past three years, and in four out of the last five. Obviously, we're talking about thin margins there in terms of the point spread, but it's still fascinating — and perhaps optimistic for New England this year — that the team who hasn't been favored has not only covered, but won outright.
Beyond that, while the over hit in the Eagles-Chiefs rematch that got a bit out of hand in terms of the scoring (especially with Kansas City tacking on three scores in what was ultimately garbage time), the under has actually hit in five of the last seven Super Bowl matchups. Again, you have to take the lines into consideration, certainly. Some of those lines were in the mid-50s, while others have been in the mid-to-high 40s. At the same time, the under hitting so frequently is something to keep in mind as well.
And if you're so inclined, in the conference vs. conference portion of the proceedings, the AFC has enjoyed a slight edge over the NFC in the past 10 Super Bowl matchups. They've won six of those matchups, though the NFC has come out on top in three of the last five.
Patriots performance against the spread this season
- Record against the spread: 13-6-1
- ATS Record as an underdog: 4-2-0
- ATS Record in the playoffs: 2-1-0
- ATS Record as an away underdog: 4-0-0
The Patriots' detractors who have talked about their easy schedule this season will be quick to point out that New England only played six games this season wherein they were the underdog. That speaks somewhat to the level of competition, but also that can be discredited because, duh, the Pats are also just a good football team.
Regardless, their performance against the spread this season has been quite impressive. They're seven games over .500 in terms of covering overall against the spread and have a .667 win percentage as an underdog. New England also covered their first two playoff spreads as well, before falling just short of the 4.5-point line against the Broncos, despite getting the victory in the AFC Championship Game.
I also threw in the ATS record on the road as an underdog, where the Patriots have been perfect this season. While the Super Bowl is technically at a neutral site in Santa Clara, that's a spot their NFC foes are far closer to geographically, and also far more familiar with. Thus, it feels at least halfway relevant, especially considering New England hasn't lost in such a position this season.
Seahawks performance against the spread this season
- Record against the spread: 14-5-0
- ATS Record as a favorite: 12-4-0
- ATS Record in the playoffs: 2-0-0
For as good as the Patriots have been against the spread this season, the Seahawks have actually been slightly better. Go figure, considering these two teams are the final two standing this season, but nonetheless, it creates a fascinating matchup in terms of how the odds stack up against one another.
The Seahawks have won 75% of the time this season as a favorite, which they've certainly been far more often than not overall. They've also not stopped in the playoffs, covering the spread in both of their wins to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl. And for good measure, while Seattle is technically the away team, they are much closer to home than the Patriots will be. As a home favorite this season, they're 6-3-0 on the year. That might be the one thing working most in New England's favor in terms of trends.
Note: All lines are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.