The end of Week 14 brings with it some interesting developments for the NFL's postseason picture. With nine teams already eliminated from playoff contention, it would seem as if the field of 14 teams to contend for the Lombardi Trophy in Santa Clara would be pretty set.
There is still a month of play left, however, and a lot can happen to shift the field so that teams currently in the postseason after Week 14 don't end up there following Week 18. Let's look at four such squads, beginning with the free-falling Indianapolis Colts.
4 NFL teams that could collapse out of the playoffs entirely
Indianapolis Colts
While the 7-1 start the Colts got off to may have been a bit of a mirage, no one expected a complete free fall like the one they are in right now. Indianapolis has dropped four of its past five games to fall into a tie for the final wild card spot with Houston, who would get the nod over them due to a head-to-head victory at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 13.
There will be an opportunity for the Colts to avenge that loss in Week 18, but they will likely have to get there without Daniel Jones, who is feared to have torn his Achilles tendon in Jacksonville on Sunday. With Jones and Anthony Richardson on IR, Indianapolis will lean on some combination of rookie Riley Leonard, journeyman Brett Rypien and a potential free agent pickup to navigate a brutal finishing kick that includes games against Seattle and San Francisco in addition to rematches with their other AFC South playoff contenders.
That stretch of games was going to be difficult even with Jones, but it may be impossible to get enough victories with mediocre quarterback play. The situation is worse for the Colts because their draft pick, which keeps getting higher in the first round as a result of these losses, is headed to New York as part of the Sauce Gardner trade.
Chicago Bears
The NFC is very top-heavy this season and the Chicago Bears are proof of that concept. After entering Week 14 with the top seed in the conference, the Bears dropped all the way to the 7-seed after losing at Lambeau Field on Sunday as Caleb Williams' last-ditch attempt to tie the game was intercepted in the end zone in the final seconds.
A 9-4 record would be safe for a playoff berth in most years, but Chicago's schedule is tough down the stretch with games against Green Bay, San Francisco and the Lions on tap after Sunday's matchup in Cleveland. That contest against Detroit in Week 18 could determine the NFC's final wild card spot and the Lions currently have a leg up on the Bears thanks to a head-to-head victory in Detroit back in Week 2.
There is a good chance that Ben Johnson could improve the Bears by five wins in his first season and miss the postseason on a tiebreaker if they lose that Lions game. Detroit is currently 8-5 and still has to deal with the Rams this week, but games against Pittsburgh and Minnesota are certainly winnable enough to make Week 18's rematch a true win-or-go-home situation.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The heat may be off of Mike Tomlin for now after Pittsburgh beat Baltimore on Sunday to reclaim first place in the AFC North, but it took a very controversial replay overturn to prevent the Ravens from snagging the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The Steelers' play has not been inspiring of late and they remain only one game ahead of Baltimore with a critical rematch looming at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 18.
The final three games before that Ravens' contest won't be easy either as red-hot Miami, which has won five of six after a 1-6 start, comes to town before a two-game trip to Detroit and Cleveland, which has been playing better since inserting Shedeur Sanders into the starting lineup. Dropping one game in that stretch could allow Baltimore to even things up in the standings, making the Week 18 contest one that could send the winner to the postseason and the loser home.
Aaron Rodgers played well in the Steelers' win on Sunday but his overall performance has dipped since a strong start to the season. With retirement potentially on the table after the season all eyes will be on Rodgers to see if he can turn back the clock for one last magical ride down the stretch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The NFC South has been the fiefdom of the Buccaneers for the past four years, a run that included a successful transition from Tom Brady at quarterback to Baker Mayfield. That run of dominance is in serious jeopardy as injuries have made the Bucs a shell of the team that began the season threatening to make a push for the NFC's top seed, which was evidenced by Sunday's home loss to a Saints team that entered the week with just two wins.
New Orleans has been feisty so far and already earned a win in Carolina this year but that is the kind of game that Tampa Bay couldn't afford to lose. The loss dropped the Buccaneers into a first place tie with Carolina, who was on a bye after upsetting the Los Angeles Rams in Week 13, and they still have two matchups left with the Panthers in Weeks 16 and 18.
Both teams currently hold 7-6 records so it is essentially four seed or bust with the Bears occupying the last wild card spot with nine wins. The return of Mike Evans could be a significant boost for Tampa Bay's offense, but it remains to be seen if their defense has enough playmakers left to stave off the Panthers' push to unseat them in the division.