No matter how the previous season goes, several NFL head coaches lose their jobs every offseason. The day on which many of these coaches get fired is known as Black Monday — the first Monday after the end of the regular season. The number of fired coaches can vary, but the head coach carousel never truly stops turning.
Most of the coaches who end up getting hired were previously coordinators of some sort, with few exceptions. Offensive coordinator hires have become more common over the years, but there are often some quality defensive coordinators who are too impressive to pass on.
We're nowhere near Black Monday, but it isn't too early to predict which current assistants are putting themselves in a good position to get hired as head coaches. These five in particular stick out.
Arthur Smith: Offensive coordinator, Pittsburgh Steelers
It felt like Arthur Smith's stock had dipped to an all-time low last season. He failed as a first-time head coach with the Atlanta Falcons, and led an underwhelming Pittsburgh Steelers offense in 2024. Well, while the team might be fraudulent, Smith has led an improved offense in 2025.
The Steelers are tied for 11th in the NFL in points per game, ranking in the top half of the league after the team was 16th in points last season. Smith has 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers playing as well as he has since 2021 despite little to work with outside of DK Metcalf. The Steelers scoring as many points as they have without a true WR2 or RB1 has been very impressive, and Smith's play-calling has a lot to do with that.
Matt Nagy: Offensive coordinator, Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Nagy is in the fortunate position of being the offensive coordinator in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense with the Kansas City Chiefs. Things didn't go well for Nagy as the head coach of the Chicago Bears, but he thrived in the offensive coordinator role with the Chiefs before and after that experience.
Kansas City had a bit of a rocky offensive season in 2024, but they've bounced back in 2025, ranking ninth in points per game and eighth in yards per game. Mahomes is playing at an MVP-caliber level, and he's been doing so despite Rashee Rice being suspended for the first six games of the season and the Chiefs having an underwhelming rushing attack.
Nagy's ability to get the most out of this underwhelming skill-position core, even with Mahomes as his quarterback, is something he deserves credit for, and could lead to him getting another shot as a head coach.
Vance Joseph: Defensive coordinator, Denver Broncos
Vance Joseph is yet another assistant who did not do well in his first shot as a head coach, but he's been nothing short of elite as the Denver Broncos' defensive coordinator, particularly in the last two seasons.
2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
Points Allowed Per Game (NFL Rank) | 18.3 (3rd) | 15.8 (2nd) |
Yards Allowed Per Game (NFL Rank) | 317.1 (7th) | 254.2 (2nd) |
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game (NFL Rank) | 96.4 (3rd) | 89.0 (6th) |
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game (NFL Rank) | 220.7 (19th) | 165.2 (3rd) |
Sure, they ranked in the bottom half of the league in passing yards against per game last season, but some of that did have to do with the fact that the Broncos led late in many of their games so the opposition was forced to throw. Other than that, Denver's defense has been as good as any in the NFL. The personnel is really good, but Joseph is also getting the most out of them routinely.
It might not be considered ideal to hire someone who failed as a head coach previously, but Joseph was forced to work with the likes of Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian and Case Keenum during his two-year tenure. No head coach can succeed with putrid quarterback play. Give Joseph an upgrade on that end, and the returns should be there.
Josh Grizzard: Offensive coordinator, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
First it was Dave Canales, then it was Liam Coen; could Josh Grizzard be next in line? Canales and Coen were hired as head coaches after just one year as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offensive coordinator, so could Grizzard be next? Don't rule it out.
Grizzard's Bucs might be 12th in yards per game, but Tampa Bay is seventh in the league in passing yards per game and fifth in points per game. They're an elite offensive team despite a slew of offensive injuries. Baker Mayfield deserves immense credit for how he's played, but Grizzard has him in MVP talks. I mean, one year after he led the league with 16 interceptions, Mayfield has one pick through a third of the season. Coaching has something to do with that, especially when the Bucs are short-handed every week.
There's still more for Grizzard to prove, but it wouldn't be surprising at all if he's the next popular offensive coordinator on the market.
Brian Flores: Defensive coordinator, Minnesota Vikings
Three of the first four head coaches on this list were head coaches before, but failed in that role. Brian Flores, on the other hand, found a way to hover around .500 during his Miami Dolphins tenure despite the team actively trying to lose games. He's proven himself to be a rock-solid head coach and an elite defensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings.
Flores inherited a defense that was bottom-10 in virtually every category, and now has Minnesota's defense playing like one of the best in the sport. The Vikings were top five in points against last season, and are top five once again in 2025.
He overachieved as a head coach and is now overachieving as a defensive coordinator. Flores has to prove he can form better relationships with players, as he was unable to do that during his Dolphins tenure, but he's an absolute lock to generate interest of some level from just about every opening this offseason. I say this without knowing what any of the openings will be — that's how good of a coach Flores is.