The Miami Dolphins officially benched Tua Tagovailoa ahead of their Week 16 matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. Miami's season is over, insofar as their postseason odds are zilch. The next few weeks will serve as a trial run for rookie Quinn Ewers. If nothing else, he has a big arm and can spice things up a bit compared to the more modest and calculated Tagovailoa.
Once a perennial Pro Bowl candidate and the league's leading passer, Tagovailoa's production has nosedived over the past couple years. There are several credible explanations for this: multiple concussions, Father Time, the decline of Tyreek Hill and his supporting cast. But in reality, Tagovailoa was always a deeply flawed QB. Now the questions becomes: what happens next?
Should the Dolphins cut their losses, a la Russell Wilson?
Tagovailoa's contract remains guaranteed for $56.4 million next season. According to NFL.com's Ian Rapoport, the expectation is that Tagovailoa has taken his last snap for the Dolphins.
From @NFLGameDay: #Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel is likely to be back in 2026, though Tua Tagovailoa is not. Where does it stand for Miami? pic.twitter.com/H7dxWxc6gQ
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 21, 2025
He will be the emergency third QB on Sunday, not the backup, and head coach Mike McDaniel believes the best thing for Miami's future is permanently benching Tagovailoa. It's worth noting that McDaniel is expected back next season, despite Miami's struggles.
This gives Miami a handful of potential options: cut, trade or keep. If the Dolphins cut Tagovailoa, it will leave $99 million in dead money on the books over the next two seasons. That is the route the Denver Broncos took with Russell Wilson, whose departure saddled the Broncos with $85 million in vacated cap space over a two-year period.
It's not a bad option — clearly, Denver benefitted from a clean break — but it's certainly not the ideal outcome. Miami already has limited flexibility as is. Getting off of Tagovailoa's contract, or at least part of it, would go a long way toward allowing Miami to A) sign his replacement (Daniel Jones? Kirk Cousins?) or B) build out the roster around a rookie QB (or Ewers, if he wins the job).
This isn't necessarily the last resort (more on that momentarily), but a better resolution exists. Miami currently has $311 million projected on the books for next season, seventh in the NFL. Keeping all of Tua's salary on the books would be a tough pill to swallow.
Should the Dolphins keep Tagovailoa as their backup, a la Kirk Cousins?
The Atlanta Falcons arrived at a similar crossroads with Kirk Cousins last summer. Cousins' contract wasn't quite so damaging ($40 million), but it also wasn't cheap. The Falcons made their commitment to Michael Penix Jr. and Cousins relationship with coaches and the front office visibly fractured.
And yet, absent trade options and not desiring multiple years of cap penalties, the Falcons decided to keep Cousins on the bench. He became the NFL's most expensive QB2, serving against his will as Penix's mentor and Atlanta's QB insurance.
It was ultimately a successful move for Atlanta. Penix's rookie contract meant the Falcons still weren't spending absolute top dollar on the QB position. No Cousins trades materialized — at least none that wouldn't keep a bunch of dead money on the Falcons' books — so he stuck around. When Penix suffered a season-ending knee injury, Atlanta had an overqualified backup ready to plug and play.
Atlanta absolutely would have preferred to trade Cousins and exorcize his contract, but that wasn't an option. Nobody was taking on the full $40 million after Cousins led the NFL in turnovers. Tua's 15 interceptions happen to lead the NFL this season. He has eight fumbles, too. A turnover-prone QB on the downturn of his career — and saddled with injury concerns — you can bet that Miami won't be able to shed Tagovailoa's full contract via trade either.
Should the Dolphins just trade Tagovailoa and eat (some of) the money?
This is the third — and no doubt best — option. If the Dolphins can find a trade partner willing to give up a draft pick, even if it requires absorbing half of Tua's contract, that is a huge win. Tagovailoa's reputation has depreciated dramatically, but he still has the faint allure of a recent starter with Pro Bowl pedigree. It's not out of the question for a team in need of a competent, veteran stopgap to dial Miami and discuss the financial details.
As for which teams might be in the market for such a trade, a handful come to mind. Atlanta needs to replace Kirk Cousins and find a bridge QB while Penix recovers from knee surgery. The Vikings may or may not trust J.J. McCarthy moving forward. Indianapolis, with Jones hurt (and also entering free agency), could look for a veteran with a bit more juice than 44-year-old Philip Rivers. The Raiders. The Browns. Plenty of teams could poke around the Tagovailoa market, in theory.
Ian Rapoport dubbed this the "most likely" outcome. It will probably be harder for Miami to find a taker than some folks think — a Cousins trade was once the "likely" outcome — but if the Dolphins are willing to absorb some of his contract to facilitate a deal, this is the best of all worlds. Miami can get Tua out of the locker room, save a bit of cash (if not all of it), and perhaps receive a Day 3 draft pick for their troubles.
Which path will Miami take?
The Dolphins will attempt to trade Tagovailoa. I'm not 100 percent convinced those efforts are rewarded, however. Plenty of teams need a QB right now, but the draft will plug a lot of those holes. Cheaper free agents, with less baggage, such as (ironically) Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota and Kenny Pickett, may also hold greater appeal. Trading for Tagovailoa, even if it's a short-term solution to a short-term problem, invites a lot of extra scrutiny.
That said, Tagovailoa's bond with Mike McDaniel has been rock-solid, damn near unbreakable, for so long. The general public gave up on Tagovailoa long before Miami's coach did. That means this decision probably hits the locker room like a nuke. Even if Tagovailoa knows, deep down, that he lost the job fair and square, he can't be thrilled with McDaniel's decision and Miami's overall direction.
Keeping him around might be more than a little awkward as a result, whether it's Ewers, a rookie, or a cheaper free agent taking the reins in 2026. The Dolphins don't want the unnecessary distraction. As such, this feels like a Russell Wilson situation. Miami will cut bait, take the L, and try to move on as best they can. Tagovailoa will be free to sign elsewhere on a minimum contract and, hopefully, restore his value.