The Wild Card Round is fully underway, and the drama was palpable before we ever got to Sunday's action. The Los Angeles Rams nearly lost to the middling Carolina Panthers for the second time this year, but Matthew Stafford orchestrated a comeback to push Sean McVay's team to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Not to be outdone, Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears found even more fourth quarter magic to overtake and eliminate the rival Packers.
We know that the Bears and Rams are moving on in the postseason, but we don't yet know exactly what's next for either team. The reseeding rules of the NFL Playoffs mean that the Divisional Round opponents for both teams have yet to be determined until the rest of the NFC side of the bracket plays out. But let's check in on the reseeding rules and what that means for both Chicago and LA.
How the NFL Playoffs reseed after the Wild Card Round
Unlike in MLB or the NBA, the NFL Playoffs reseed after the Wild Card Round games. The No. 1 seed in each conference obviously has a bye for the first week of the postseason, but they also get the most favorable matchup possible when they do take the field in the Divisional Round. The top seed in the AFC and NFC will ultimately go on to face the lowest remaining seed on their side of the bracket after Wild Card weekend.
While that only talks about the No. 1 seed and their matchup, though, it dictates what happens to the rest of the bracket. The No. 2 seed in the Bears advanced out of the NFC already, but they have to wait to see who the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks will play before they get their opponent. And with the Rams as the No. 5 seed, that means they're also left at waiting.
However, the picture is a bit clearer now with only one game remaining the NFC Wild Card Round.
Bears playoff schedule: Who will Chicago play next?
The one thing we know for sure with the Bears is that they'll be at home in the friendly confines of Soldier Field for their Divisional Round matchup. As for their opponent, though, they will either play the Los Angeles Rams or the Philadelphia Eagles depending on the result of the latter's game on Sunday. The two teams they know they won't be facing are the Seahawks or the San Francisco 49ers.
- If the Eagles beat the 49ers: The Bears will host the Eagles
- If the 49ers upset the Eagles: The Bears will host the Rams
If the 49ers upset the Eagles in Philadelphia on Wild Card Weekend, then the Bears will then move on to face the Rams. If the favorite holds true and Philly wins, then that's who Chicago will be welcoming to town next week.
It's pretty cut and dry with all but one game in the NFC having been played to this point. But it does beg the question of which outcome is better for Williams, Ben Johnson and the Bears.
Would the Bears rather play the Rams or Eagles in the Divisional Round?
The Eagles have to be the more favorable matchup, right?
On first glance, that might not seem intuitive, given that Philly won the NFC East, is the defending Super Bowl champion, and is obviously the higher seed in these playoffs. However, that's all overshadowed by a blatant truth: The Rams are a better football team than the Eagles.
Los Angeles is only the No. 5 seed because they played in the NFL's toughest division this season. When you start to break it down, that becomes quite apparent. The Eagles have the slightly better defense, ranking 10th in Defensive Success Rate and sixth in EPA allowed per play while the Rams are 11th and 10th, respectively. However, the two sides are obviously pretty close on that side of the ball. It's on offense where the separation stands out, as LA is second in EPA per Play and first in Success Rate on the season, while Philly is middling at 16th and 22nd, respectively.
Beyond just that, though, the construction of the Bears and how the Rams have succeeded makes that even truer. Chicago is going to face a stout defensive test regardless. However, the weakness for the Bears all year long has been the defense, and Philadelphia has the notably worse offense to contend with.
There isn't an experience edge to be given between the Eagles and Rams given that both quarterbacks and coaching regimes have exuded championship pedigree. So it all comes down to the matchup, and Chicago substantially matches up better with Philadelphia than they would Los Angeles.
Rams playoff schedule: Who will LA play next?
Speaking of those Rams, they could end up playing the Bears in the Divisional Round, but they could also wind up facing the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks as well in the third meeting between the NFC West rivals this season.
- If the Eagles beat the 49ers: Rams play at Seattle.
- If the 49ers beat the Eagles: Rams play at Chicago.
Should the Eagles win as favorites at home in the Wild Card Round, that would then put LA going on the road to face the familiar and top-seeded Seahawks. However, if the 49ers pull off the upset, that then gives the Rams a trip to wintry Soldier Field. Again, it's not a complex path to understand, but it does leave multiple options on the table for Sean McVay's club. However, one of those options should be far more preferable.
Would the Rams rather play the Seahawks or Bears in the Divisional Round?
In the same way that the Bears would prefer to play the Eagles over the Rams, the Rams would certainly be better off playing Chicago rather than seeing Seattle for the third time this year.
Obviously, Los Angeles is capable of taking down the Seahawks — they've already done it once this season. At the same time, a third matchup between rivals is always immensely tricky, especially when the two sides are so evenly matched. The Sean McVay-Mike Macdonald chess match now has 120 minutes worth of data to work off of, which can lead to the margin for error being slimmer than ever before.
The flip side of that is a Bears team that has a ton of juice and seemingly a bit of sorcery in their favor, but hasn't seen the Rams this season and has deficiencies on the defense. That's something that McVay and Stafford would seemingly be well-equipped to take advantage of, and ultimately gives LA the advantage in the Divisional Round, whereas I'm not sure you could give an advantage to either side in the conclusion of a trilogy.